Upset alert in NFL Week 8? Why these favorites could fall, including Packers vs. Aaron Rodgers

Week 7 was as square as SpongeBob as favorites dominated the slate. In all, favorites covered 11 of the 15 games and went 13-2 straight up, so the dogs certainly weren't barking throughout the weekend. While that doesn't necessarily correlate with Week 8 becoming a comeback story for the dogs, there certainly should be some leveling out in that regard. 

Week 8 features a smaller collection of games, with six teams on the bye. However, the majority of matchups have spreads of 6.5 or fewer, indicating a number of close contests and the possibility of upsets. Where can those possible upsets be found? Let's highlight a handful of favorites who could be on upset alert this week. 

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Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

• When: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood)
• Stream: Prime Video
• Vikings ML odds: +156

Both of these teams are coming off losses in Week 7, but the matchup does seem to favor Minnesota despite being road dogs. Los Angeles' defense has a reputation for being a solid unit, but that hasn't really been the case in 2025. Over the last three weeks, the Chargers are giving up 30.6 points per game, which included a 38-point stomping by the Colts in Week 7. While Carson Wentz did not look great last week against Philadelphia, he has historically played well on Thursday night, owning a 7-0 record in his career. Wentz could also get help from his backfield, headlined by Jordan Mason, with the Chargers giving up 5.1 yards per carry entering Week 8 (fourth-highest in the NFL). Moreover, L.A. has softened after a stellar opening three weeks. Over the last four games, Herbert and Co. are 1-3, and the quarterback has thrown five interceptions. 

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-1.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• 49ers ML odds: -102

Niners moneyline is already juiced, but they are still considered an underdog for this road matchup for the time being. It remains to be seen if Brock Purdy will return for this matchup, but Mac Jones has boasted a 4-1 record as San Francisco's starter, so he is more than capable of heading into Houston and notching a win if need be. The Texans offense has been mediocre thus far, with C.J. Stroud ranking 22nd in yards per attempt (6.8) and having the third-lowest completion percentage (33%) on passes of 15-plus air yards. If that continues, Christian McCaffrey will be able to produce enough offense himself to give the 49ers a shot at the upset. Already, San Francisco has won two of its three games as an underdog this season.

Prisco's Week 8 NFL picks: Cowboys beat Broncos in shootout, Packers spoil Aaron Rodgers' revenge game

Pete Prisco

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

• When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Steelers ML odds: +146

There's plenty of drama centered around this prime-time game as Aaron Rodgers will square off against his former Green Bay Packers team for the first time, and he'll be doing so as a home dog. While the Packers may have the perception of being more of a Super Bowl contender over the Steelers, it's much closer than these odds suggest. Not only is Rodgers playing well, but Mike Tomlin has a near-pristine record as a home underdog. Since taking the job in 2007, Tomlin is 21-7-3 ATS as a home underdog. Certainly, the points are attractive in this game with the Steelers, but Tomlin is also 12-8 straight up as an underdog since 2023, which is the best record in the NFL over that span. As for Green Bay, they are 0-3 ATS on the road this season. They are 1-1-1 on the road straight up, with their lone win coming last week against the Arizona Cardinals. Pittsburgh should present more of a challenge in a much more hostile environment. 

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Cowboys ML odds: +146

Denver had a thrilling win over the Giants last week, where the Broncos posted 33 points in the fourth quarter to avoid the upset. That said, their offense has been hot and cold throughout the season thus far, and their defense may be a bit overrated as they've beaten up on some bad teams. Against more stable offenses like Indianapolis and Los Angeles (Chargers), they are giving up 26 points per game and have lost both contests. Dallas certainly has issues on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense is among the very best in the NFL, owning the second-highest points-per-game output (31.7) this season. They could expose a Broncos defense that still has some questions and is potent enough to go throw for throw with Bo Nix if this again turns into a fourth-quarter frenzy. 

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Bears ML odds: +245

This is essentially a playoff game for the Ravens, who emerge from the bye at 1-5 on the year. If they don't begin digging out of that hole soon, the season is lost. Currently, it's unclear if Lamar Jackson (hamstring) will be back, but the odds tell us that they are anticipating his return. Also, will Jackson be limited even if he is under center? Beyond the status of Jackson, this may be a tough matchup for a struggling Ravens defense that is giving up the most points per game (32.3) in the NFL this season. The Bears are the only team in the NFL to score at least 21 points in every game this season, and that comes with Caleb Williams not playing his best ball. If he starts to level out against a secondary that is allowing opponents to register a 108.4 passer rating (third-highest in the NFL), Chicago could be looking at its fifth consecutive win and Baltimore looking at its sixth loss of the year.