2025 Wheat Tour Predicts Average Yields and Quality

On Monday, June 2, local millers, grain brokers, and agronomists toured Pennsylvania wheat growing regions in an annual effort to estimate new crop yield and quality.

Average yields presented were estimated several weeks before harvest, and randomly sampled from a few locations in large fields using the protocol outlined at "Home Stretch: Evaluating Your Small Grain Crops" (Image 1). One yield component that we did not measure in the tour is kernel weight, as it was too early in the plant's development for that. Our yield estimate formula assumes a fixed kernel weight. Additionally, since the tour, we have continued to experience heavy rainfall and wind, which may cause lodging losses in some fields, which will lower yields. Therefore, these estimates may not reflect actual harvest yields. 

Yield Estimates

Thirteen fields were toured in the South Central region (Adams, Franklin, and York Counties), while eight fields were toured in the Southeast (Berks, Dauphin, Lancaster, and Lebanon Counties). Average yield estimate, range, five-year average yield estimate (2019-2024), and yield components are listed in the table below.

South Central fields had abundant tillering and higher than average kernels per spikelet, which both contributed to higher than expected yields. Meanwhile, Southeastern fields experienced less tillering overall and a lower proportion of tillers producing harvestable grain (87%) than the South Central region (94%). This could be explained by drought or nutrient management. 

Crop Management

Planting dates were all in October, with the exception of two fields in Franklin County, which were planted on September 25 and November 2. Seeding rates were highly variable, and provided as both seeds and pounds per acre, ranging from 1.2 to 1.8 million seeds per acre, and 120 to 150 pounds of seed per acre. Wheat seed size can vary considerably, from about 10,000 to 15,000 seeds per pound, based on values from the University of Nebraska and Oklahoma State Extension. Therefore, 120 to 150 pounds per acre could range from 1.2 million to 2.25 million seeds per acre, depending on seed size. Commercial varieties were used except for one field each in Franklin and York Counties, which used bin-run seed. 

Wheat was most frequently followed by soybeans (or green beans), but was occasionally planted after corn. Common fall management included chicken litter or synthetic fertilizer, usually prioritizing nitrogen and phosphorus. Spring nitrogen was almost exclusively split between two applications and was commonly applied with sulfur. 

Growth regulator was used on the majority of fields, but less ubiquitously than in recent years. The cold, dry winter resulted in slow growth this spring, so this input was eliminated at several sites, with little to no impact on lodging. Despite many farmers experiencing dry, hard soil at planting, followed by about six months of drought, more than half the fields reached the desired 3 million heads per acre recommended for maximizing yield. 

Early fungicide was used across the Southeast and Franklin County, but only on half the fields in York and Adams Counties. Fungicide (Prosaro dominated) was applied at flowering to nearly all fields; one field in Adams County that received neither early nor late fungicide did not have high levels of scab. 

Disease and Insect Pests

Fusarium head blight (scab) incidence was very low across locations.  According to the Fusarium Head Blight Prediction Center, scab risk was moderate to high for varieties with moderate resistance to scab during the week or two around flowering, due to, in some locations, near daily rainfall during that window. Despite this risk, the fact that most growers chose favorable genetics and accomplished timely sprays meant that only minimal scab is showing itself in the field. Additionally, though the weather was wet around flowering, it was also cool; the combination of wet and warm weather favors scab development, so the cool temperatures could have played a role in less scab this year. However, fields were at the milk stage transitioning to soft dough, so it was a bit early to detect scab at the time of the tour for some fields. 

Powdery mildew was widespread, generally at low to moderate levels, but present at high levels in the canopy of some fields. Cereal leaf beetle damage was present in several fields, but was very minor. Stagnospora Glume blotch (Image 2) was widespread at low to moderate levels, and Septoria leaf blotch was noted at multiple fields. Leaf rust was identified at a handful of fields at low levels. 

The group noted significantly less yellowing and purpling of newer leaves, suspected to be Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV), which was widespread last year. This year, it was isolated to a handful of fields in the South Central region. 

Abiotic Issues

Several fields in York and Adams Counties had low levels of frost damage, due to some frigid low temperatures in late spring. The twisted heads and awns associated with this type of damage were not noted elsewhere in the Pennsylvania tour. 

Summary

A missing piece of the wheat tour is profitability. Understanding your cost of production and your buyer's toxin thresholds and discount schedule are vital for dialing in your wheat management. In other words, what good is 100% vom-free, high-yielding wheat if it is not profitable? Carefully scrutinizing your inputs and the value they provide are essential for maintaining profitability. 

With harvest still several weeks on the horizon, we hope yield and quality will not deteriorate, save for some lodging from expected scattered thunderstorms. Overall, we expect low vomitoxin levels due to minimal scab presence this year. However, other quality parameters such as test weight and falling number could be impacted by the widespread powdery mildew, glume blotch, and continued rain.