DraftKings (-120). Zach Charbonnet has remained under this line in four of five games, with only one run longer than eight-yards this season (15 yards against the Cardinals). Running a zone concept 71% of the time, Charbonnet has struggled in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. Splitting carries with Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet is no sure thing to see substantial volume either. And this is a brutal spot against a Texans run defense that ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed to running backs, and only 7 of 102 total carries have cleared even 10 yards. Houston also ranks eighth in YPC against zone concept runs.

DraftKings. Coming back to this line after missing on Rachaad White’s reception prop last week. I once again love the matchup for White, who should see a 75-80% snap share on pass plays. The issue last week was that Baker Mayfield only had to drop back 25 times - I don’t see that being the case against the Lions. Detroit’s run defense is fifth in DVOA against the rush (per FTN), which should lend to more passing. And even with Mike Evans and possibly Emeka Egbuka back in the fold, Mayfield has maintained a steady 20% target share to running backs, throughout his time with the Bucs. I have White seeing 6 targets on Monday Night, and I’d bet this up to -145.

DraftKings. With George Kittle back in the fold, I’m going to fade Jauan Jennings on his reception line. The 49ers receiver has remained under this line in three of four games this season, and is admittedly running at less than 100% health with foot and ankle injuries. He’ll face a very tough Falcons defense that’s allowed the third fewest receiver receptions per game.

FanDuel. Jayden Daniels has cleared this line in two of his four full games this season. Without his top three wide receivers today, as well as his top receiving back, this matchup reads as one where Daniels will have to take off with the ball. Not only does this game against the Cowboys profile as a shootout (total of 54.5), but the Cowboys are also allowing their opponents the third most offensive plays per game. I don’t think the Commanders are ready to fully trust Bill Croskey-Merritt with a 20+ carry workload either.

B365 and MGM. In a spot start last week in place of the injured Kyler Murray, journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw a whopping 44 passes in a close game against the Colts. With Murray still out, I’m expecting Brisset to have to continue to air it out on Sunday against the Packers. Green Bay is allowing the most pass attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks (40.4), with opponents passing at the highest clip against them in neutral gamescripts (66%, per Roto Viz). The Cardinals run game has massive struggled without both James Conner and Trey Benson, and the Packers are only allowing 3.6 yards per carry as is (fourth best). I’d bet this up to over 35.5 attempts.

FanDuel. Troy Franklin has emerged in his second NFL season as a reliable receiver for his former college teammate, Bo Nix. Franklin has cleared this line in four of six games this season, while running the second most routes for the Broncos. Running most of his routes out of the slot, he’ll face the Giants’ Andru Phillips who has allowed the second most receptions in his coverage amongst all cornerbacks (per PFF). Overall, the Giants have allowed the second most receiving yards to opposing receivers, and Franklin should benefit from Big Blue’s high man coverage rate (third highest). I’d bet this up to over 35.5 receiving yards.

FanDuel. Tyjae Spears played 59% of the offensive snaps last week, including 31 of the 44 pass plays. With Tony Pollard largely inefficient, I’m expecting Spears to continue to dominate the pass-play work, after securing four catches for 19 yards last week. The Patriots run defense is stout (sixth in DVOA, per FTN), and the Titans are without leading receiver Calvin Ridley. New England allows 38 receiving yards to opposing running backs, and I’m expecting a negative gamescript for the struggling Titans. I’d bet this up to over 12.5 receiving yards.

B365 at -120. Jamien Sherwood has cleared this combined tackle line in four of six games this season. As he gets settled into Aaron Glenn’s defensive system, I like him to continue on his league-leading path this season, in terms of tackle production. He’ll face off against Panthers team that has allowed the ninth most tackles this season, including the fifth most to linebackers (per PFF). Five of the Panthers’ six opponents have had an off ball linebacker clear this line. I’d bet this up to over 9.5 at plus odds (for 0.75 betting units).

DraftKings. Travis Etienne has cooled after a strong start this, staying under this line in three of his last four games. The three games he’s cleared this line, he’s managed an explosive run of at least 30 yards. The Rams not only have a solid run defense (tenth in DVOA, per FTN), but they’ve held the last five running backs they’ve faced to under a longest rush of twelve yards (the list of opponents includes Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley). I don’t anticipate Etienne garnering enough volume, as he only averages 17 total touches per game. With Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter both emerging, I only have Etienne projected at 68 yards. I’d bet this down to under 74.5 combined yards.

DraftKings. Noah Fant has cleared this receptions line in three of four games as a Bengal (with three different quarterbacks). While Bengals head coach Zach Taylor likes to rotate tight-ends, Cincinnati will be without Mike Gesicki and most likely Tanner Hudson on the short week. The Steelers have struggled against tight-ends this season (notably without Minkah Fitzpatrick) - and they are coming off a game in which they allowed 11 tight-end receptions on a 33% target share. Joe Flacco is a check-down merchant at this stage in his career (7.1 aDOT this season), which should suit Fant well (3.1 aDOT).

FanDuel. D’Andre Swift is under this line in three of four games this season. He’s been brutal on the ground, with only 3.3 yards per carry. He’ll face a very stout Commanders front - Washington ranks fifth in rushing defense DVOA (per FTN) and allows opposing running backs only 3.4 yards per carry. And while Swift does get check-down targets, the Commanders secondary has been vulnerable against wide receivers - I’m expecting Caleb Williams to get his big play threats the ball out wide.

DraftKings. While Kyle Pitts has seen steady targets with Michael Penix under center, the tight-end hasn’t regularly cashed in on deep throws. Only one of his 24 targets has traveled at least 20 air yards (incomplete) and he only has one catch of at least 20 yards this season. The Bills play two-high safeties at the fourth highest rate (61%), and keep everything in front of them (opposing QBs with the sixth lowest aDOT, 6.8 yards). Also, I’m expecting the Falcons to go run heavy against the vulnerable Bills defense.

DraftKings. DraftKings. This is a bit of an eye-opening line for Xavier Worthy, who has at least five catches in ten straight full games dating back to last season. He’ll face a Lions secondary that’s down their top three cornerbacks, and both safeties are also banged up. The Chiefs should have to air it out in this matchup as is, with their run game struggling, and the Lions ranked fourth in run defense DVOA (per FTN). Expecting Worthy to see some screens and short looks, to complement the deep shots, as he should once again be in line for 8-10 targets. I’d bet this up to -150.

DraftKings. Kareem Hunt is under this line in three of his five games this season, with only two of his 43 carries going for more than 9 yards. He gets a brutal matchup against the Lions who have the second highest stuff rate against the run (per Fantasy Points), and rank fourth in rush defense DVOA (per FTN). In a three way timeshare now, Hunt saw his lowest snap rate last week, and likely will operate in short-yardage and goal line opportunities.

FanDuel. With Bucky Irving slated to miss his second straight game, Rachaad White will once again assume the lead-back role. Last week, without Irving, White was on the field for 33 of Baker Mayfield’s 39 dropbacks, amassing four catches. In fact, between White and Bucky, the Bucs have had a running back clear this line in each of their five games this season. The 49ers have allowed 5.4 running back catches per game (5th most). With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both out, Mayfield might have to rely even more on his running back in the passing game on Sunday.