Conventional wisdom states the Bengals – home, in division, short week, do-or-die … against Mike Tomlin in a road game with expectations – should not only cover but potentially win outright. However, plenty is working against Cincinnati – particularly its terrible defense. Ultimately making my decision was Trey Hendrickson getting ruled out. The Steelers can control the division. Aaron Rodgers and his receivers are playing well, Pittsburgh has a great ground game and Cincinnati has no pass rush. Joe Flacco is on a severely truncated timetable up against a great Steelers pass rush. The turnover disparity alone may decide this game. So we buck conventional wisdom and take the Steelers despite history against them and a no-man’s-land line (though it dropped to 4.5 before kickoff).

The Steelers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, but they looked much better against the Browns in Week 6. Home teams have a significant advantage on TNF, but the Bengals are a mess right now. Joe Flacco has been with the team for less than two weeks, and Trey Hendrickson has been ruled out for Thursday. In the end, I expect the Steelers to win by 7+.

Samaje Perine got six carries last week and has earned a 46 percent snap share two straight weeks. Chase Brown might excel as a receiver Thursday, but I don't see him getting 14 carries. Even in a competitive game, which I'm expecting, look for the Bengals to rely on Joe Flacco and the short passing game. This would be a smaller play for me at 12.5 carries.

I personally hope Aaron Rodgers sets the NFL record with nine picks tonight, but an already awful Cincinnati defense apparently will be without star pass-rusher Trey Hendrickson. Thus, Rodgers might have all night back in the pocket and he's not really throwing deep balls anyways that are more likely to be picked. Also a good chance the Steelers get up, especially now with the Hendrickson news, and play conservative. As it is, the Bengals can't stop the run.

The Bengals will be without TE’s Mike Gesicki & Tanner Hudson tonight, which should give Fant his opportunities with new QB Joe Flacco. Last week against the Packers, Fant caught 4 receptions on 4 targets from Flacco in their first game together. He could be a frequent target for Flacco this week, against an aggressive Steelers pass rush that now has LB Alex Highsmith back. Fant played 49% of the offensive snaps last week, which should only increase while Cincy’s other TE’s are sidelined. I like him for 4+ receptions tonight.

We already have D.K. Metcalf ATD in tow and while the Steelers defense is a bigger problem than the Bengals, I would be remiss if I didn't bet Chase at this price too. FanDuel is best by a good 10 cents and I wouldn't be shocked if this dipped a little leading up to the game. Chase is usually around -125 to score in a prime time game, because he's, you know, Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals offensive struggles have given us rare value on a guy who just got 10 catches on 12 targets for 94 yards and a score against a strong Packers defense. It's pretty much a principle play at this number.

I typically avoid RB receiving props for a variety of reasons but this is a rare one that I like and am backing. For starters Jaylen Warren is an excellent receiving back since entering the league. The combination of Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers are certainly aware of this and in a hyper conservative offense where there just hasn’t been much downfield passing, this number is too low for Warren. I also like that Warren is another week removed from a knee injury and his usage should increase. The Bengals have also surrendered the 5th most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season.

The Bengals lost again last week against the Packers, but they at least covered. And, more importantly, for betting props on Thursday night, we saw some life out of the passing attack. Ja'Marr Chase flirted with 100 yards and Tee Higgins caught five balls on eight targets for 62 yards. He's getting more downfield looks with Flacco and has a really strong history against the Steelers. We're not asking for the moon here just 50 yards (please note this number is creeping up everywhere, so make sure and shop around).

Washington has seen more than 85% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks thanks to his blocking helping the Steelers run game and as a result his usage as a receiver has gone way up, catching three passes each of the last two weeks. The matchup against the Bengals is obviously a good one and if Washington is out there that much, he's going to get some looks from Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers has been under this attempt line in 5 of 6 games (important to note that 2 of those games he was right at 30 attempts, but in 2 other games he didn't surpass 23 attempts). I think the game script and short week is in favor of the Steelers leaning on the run game. Rodgers is likely get the short area passing game going, and while I think he'll be reasonably efficient against a porous defense, I don't foresee a lot of passing volume. You can find this number at BetMGM. The 29.5 is playable but I'm more comfortable at this 30.5 number.

Joe Flacco threw for 299 in Week 1 while with Cleveland but hasn't approached this since -- 219 last time out vs. Green Bay in his Cincinnati debut, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt. Not sure I trust that O-Line to protect him against a Steelers defense that has had at least five sacks in three straight games. The 40-year-old might not even finish the game. Our model his him at 224 yards.

Despite losing Joe Burrow for the year, the Bengals are not giving up on the season yet. With the AFC seemingly wide open, Cincy brought in veteran QB Joe Flacco in an effort to remain competitive. I expect Flacco to let the ball fly tonight, as he looks to establish a rapport with his star WR duo. Flacco threw the ball 45 times in his Bengals debut last week, and is over this pass attempts total in 4/5 games this season. The Bengals are +5.5 dogs in this matchup, and a trailing game script (which Cincy has largely been in for each of their 5 games thus far) would be ideal for this player prop.

No. 3 receiver Andrei Iosivas had three bad drops last week in Cincinnati's 27-18 loss in Green Bay. Zac Taylor indicated he's keeping Iosivas in his role, which has seen the third-year pro run 184 routes this season (compared to 209 for Tee Higgins and 217 for Ja'Marr Chase). Joe Flacco targeted Iosivas four times, continuing a trend in which Flacco likes targeting in-line or slot receivers. Flacco is projected for 36-37 pass attempts, and the Bengals are down two tight ends. Last week with Flacco, the Bengals used 11 personnel on 88.7 percent of their snaps.

DraftKings. Noah Fant has cleared this receptions line in three of four games as a Bengal (with three different quarterbacks). While Bengals head coach Zach Taylor likes to rotate tight-ends, Cincinnati will be without Mike Gesicki and most likely Tanner Hudson on the short week. The Steelers have struggled against tight-ends this season (notably without Minkah Fitzpatrick) - and they are coming off a game in which they allowed 11 tight-end receptions on a 33% target share. Joe Flacco is a check-down merchant at this stage in his career (7.1 aDOT this season), which should suit Fant well (3.1 aDOT).

Initially I was leaning toward Pittsburgh but now I'm taking the points with the desperate home team. First-round pick Shemar Stewart will return from his ankle injury, and Trey Hendrickson (hip) has a chance to play. The Bengals have faced a slew of elite defenses to start the season, and Pittsburgh isn't in that category despite dominating the Browns. Joe Flacco and Cincy's offense started to click in the second half against Green Bay. Look for that to carry over and for the Bengals to keep this close.

Joe Flacco enters this game a little over a week after joining the team, and although he had some moments against the Packers, he might have trouble dealing with the pass rush in this game. I still think the Bengals can cover because I'm not sure the Steelers offense can run up the score against even the Bengals. Their 5.1 yards per play mark puts them next to the Raiders and Panthers, while the Bengals' poor marks have come against a tough schedule since facing the Browns in Week 1. I think this total is probably 2 points too high.

D.K. Metcalf's scored in four straight games so why not make it five? The touchdown streak isn't predictive, per se, but it does show he's *the guy* for Aaron Rodgers and now he gets a defense that's been shredded by opposing offense on a short week. This price feels pretty good relative to the rest of the market and Metcalf's recent production (nine catches on 14 targets, 221 yards and two scores in the last two games) so we're jumping on it now.

The Steelers are coming off their most impressive win of the season, but you could blame the awful spot for Cleveland, and I'm still not sure what they do better than most teams. The defense looks a lot better now that it's healthier, but it was healthy in Week 1 when it got gashed by a Jets team that is 50-50 to complete a forward pass most weeks. The 5.1 yards per play on offense is comparable to the Panthers and Raiders. Basically, this doesn't profile as a team that should be laying this many points on the road, especially in a divisional matchup, even against a bad Bengals team.

The way the AFC North has collapsed around the Steelers, this might be the last chance for the division race to stay alive past Halloween. Pittsburgh's 4-1 mark deceives a bit, with the Steelers never looking all that impressive, even in last week's 23-9 win over the Browns with Dillon Gabriel making his second start and having Cleveland close to narrowing the margin to 7 in the fourth quarter. Cincy's injury issues are well-documented, but the Bengals look like they can compete now with Joe Flacco at QB after making a run at the Packers in the second half at Lambeau last week. With two early-season wins, this might be Cincy's best chance to stay relevant in the North race. Play Bengals.