Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. Toumani Camara averaged 11.2 points per game last season. While progressed into one of the game’s two-way talents, I don’t love his scoring potential in the opener this season. Camara scored 65% of his points via spot up shooting and transition, and the Timberwolves excel defensively against both playtypes. The Blazers have several higher usage players who should see more volume, and Camara will draw a brutal defensive assignment against Anthony Edwards as is. Coming off very limited pre-season action due to knee soreness, I wouldn’t be shocked if Camara’s minutes were slightly scaled down.
DraftKings. Trey Murphy put together a career year last season, notching 24.7 points plus assists per game. He profiles as the Pelicans #2 this season, behind Zion Williamson, whose game he complements well. With Zion in the lineup last year, Murphy cleared this prop line in 15 of 21 games. To start the new campaign, Murphy has a solid matchup against the Grizzlies. Memphis was the fastest team in the NBA last season, and should once again serve as a prime matchup target for player prop overs. And with Williamson likely having to deal with Jaren Jackson Jr. defensively, I like the individual matchup for Murphy. I’d bet this up to over 23.5.
DraftKings. I acknowledge that betting on a rookie clearing his points prop line in his first game can be daunting, but I do see value on VJ Edgecombe in his debut. The Baylor product will start, and the Sixers are already down both Paul George and Jared McCain. Edgecombe has shined both in Summer League and Preseason, drawing rave reviews. I do expect Joel Embiid to be limited, but even when he does play, Edgecombe’s off-ball movement should play really well off both Embiid and Tyrese Maxey’s action. The Celtics didn’t allow a lot of off-ball opportunities last season, but their roster profiles as very average this year.
DraftKings. Looking to take advantage of Michael Porter Jr.’s new role, as he goes from the Nuggets to the Nets. MPJ actually averaged 1.9 assists per game last season, and cleared this line in eight of 11 games that he played without Nikola Jokic. I use that split because on the Nets, Porter Jr. will have the ball in his hands much more, as he and Cam Thomas will be the primary offensive options. I’m expecting a spike in the Missouri product’s overall passing numbers this season, and I’m expecting his assist line to hover around 2.5 moving forward.
DraftKings. In his first campaign with the Thunder, Isaiah Hartenstein averaged 15 points plus assists per game. While his production and minutes waned in the playoffs, I’m counting on the big man to play a crucial role out of the gate for Oklahoma City, who will be without Jalen Williams. Taking on the Rockets, who’ve already tipped their hand that they’ll be starting a massive lineup, I like the matchup for Hartenstein. I’m expecting Houston to play some zone, which should give Hartenstein open looks for his patented push shot from the mid-paint. Houston also looked disjointed defensively in the preseason, especially their double-big looks. Hartenstein cleared this line in six of eight without Williams last year, and in all four games against the Rockets.
DraftKings (-120). Zach Charbonnet has remained under this line in four of five games, with only one run longer than eight-yards this season (15 yards against the Cardinals). Running a zone concept 71% of the time, Charbonnet has struggled in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s system. Splitting carries with Kenneth Walker, Charbonnet is no sure thing to see substantial volume either. And this is a brutal spot against a Texans run defense that ranks seventh in yards per carry allowed to running backs, and only 7 of 102 total carries have cleared even 10 yards. Houston also ranks eighth in YPC against zone concept runs.
DraftKings. Coming back to this line after missing on Rachaad White’s reception prop last week. I once again love the matchup for White, who should see a 75-80% snap share on pass plays. The issue last week was that Baker Mayfield only had to drop back 25 times - I don’t see that being the case against the Lions. Detroit’s run defense is fifth in DVOA against the rush (per FTN), which should lend to more passing. And even with Mike Evans and possibly Emeka Egbuka back in the fold, Mayfield has maintained a steady 20% target share to running backs, throughout his time with the Bucs. I have White seeing 6 targets on Monday Night, and I’d bet this up to -145.
DraftKings. With George Kittle back in the fold, I’m going to fade Jauan Jennings on his reception line. The 49ers receiver has remained under this line in three of four games this season, and is admittedly running at less than 100% health with foot and ankle injuries. He’ll face a very tough Falcons defense that’s allowed the third fewest receiver receptions per game.
FanDuel. Jayden Daniels has cleared this line in two of his four full games this season. Without his top three wide receivers today, as well as his top receiving back, this matchup reads as one where Daniels will have to take off with the ball. Not only does this game against the Cowboys profile as a shootout (total of 54.5), but the Cowboys are also allowing their opponents the third most offensive plays per game. I don’t think the Commanders are ready to fully trust Bill Croskey-Merritt with a 20+ carry workload either.
B365 and MGM. In a spot start last week in place of the injured Kyler Murray, journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw a whopping 44 passes in a close game against the Colts. With Murray still out, I’m expecting Brisset to have to continue to air it out on Sunday against the Packers. Green Bay is allowing the most pass attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks (40.4), with opponents passing at the highest clip against them in neutral gamescripts (66%, per Roto Viz). The Cardinals run game has massive struggled without both James Conner and Trey Benson, and the Packers are only allowing 3.6 yards per carry as is (fourth best). I’d bet this up to over 35.5 attempts.
FanDuel. Troy Franklin has emerged in his second NFL season as a reliable receiver for his former college teammate, Bo Nix. Franklin has cleared this line in four of six games this season, while running the second most routes for the Broncos. Running most of his routes out of the slot, he’ll face the Giants’ Andru Phillips who has allowed the second most receptions in his coverage amongst all cornerbacks (per PFF). Overall, the Giants have allowed the second most receiving yards to opposing receivers, and Franklin should benefit from Big Blue’s high man coverage rate (third highest). I’d bet this up to over 35.5 receiving yards.
FanDuel. Tyjae Spears played 59% of the offensive snaps last week, including 31 of the 44 pass plays. With Tony Pollard largely inefficient, I’m expecting Spears to continue to dominate the pass-play work, after securing four catches for 19 yards last week. The Patriots run defense is stout (sixth in DVOA, per FTN), and the Titans are without leading receiver Calvin Ridley. New England allows 38 receiving yards to opposing running backs, and I’m expecting a negative gamescript for the struggling Titans. I’d bet this up to over 12.5 receiving yards.
B365 at -120. Jamien Sherwood has cleared this combined tackle line in four of six games this season. As he gets settled into Aaron Glenn’s defensive system, I like him to continue on his league-leading path this season, in terms of tackle production. He’ll face off against Panthers team that has allowed the ninth most tackles this season, including the fifth most to linebackers (per PFF). Five of the Panthers’ six opponents have had an off ball linebacker clear this line. I’d bet this up to over 9.5 at plus odds (for 0.75 betting units).
DraftKings. Travis Etienne has cooled after a strong start this, staying under this line in three of his last four games. The three games he’s cleared this line, he’s managed an explosive run of at least 30 yards. The Rams not only have a solid run defense (tenth in DVOA, per FTN), but they’ve held the last five running backs they’ve faced to under a longest rush of twelve yards (the list of opponents includes Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley). I don’t anticipate Etienne garnering enough volume, as he only averages 17 total touches per game. With Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter both emerging, I only have Etienne projected at 68 yards. I’d bet this down to under 74.5 combined yards.