Admittedly, this feels like a trap given how the Patriots have been rolling. However, New England is up against the worst offense in the NFL that has been "simplified" this week for Cam Ward. Is that plus Mike McCoy steering the ship in place of Brian Callahan enough? Tough to feel that way when Tennessee has fallen by 8+ points in all five losses. There's no homefield advantage for the Titans and no real interim coach bump in the NFL, either. Drake Maye has (begrudgingly, as a Dolphins fan) been exceptional since Mike Vrabel took over (revenge factor added), and he should shred this defense, which has been barely passable in most games. Getting this under 7 feels like a gift (hence, the potential trap).

I sure hope the Bears didn't screw up the 2024 draft by taking Caleb Williams over both Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye ... I hope. Maye is ascending big time, but the weather forecast in Nashville is not ideal for scoring at least 26 points with rain and wind. The Pats have topped this number only twice in 2025. Tennessee is horrible offensively -- a pick-six or something like that might be an issue for this wager -- but not too wretched on defense most of the time. Our model has New England right at 25.

The Pats are expected to be in positive script in this game, and yet I can't expect much from Rhamondre Stevenson. In his first game post Antonio Gibson's injury, he managed just 18 yards on 13 carries, and he's had 2.1 yards per carry or worse in half his games now. He also had no receptions on one target in that win. At some point he's going to be marginalized in the offense, and this matchup was made more difficult with T'Vondre Sweat coming off IR for Tennessee. Stevenson has topped this number just once, in a matchup with a Dolphins defense that is terrible against RBs. The Titans defense is capable of limiting him, if the gameplan or another fumble doesn't do the job.

Backing the Titans has not gone well this year or last, but this is a great spot. Brian Callahan was the worst coach ATS of the last 20 years, consistently underperforming the rating the Titans' market rating. Interim head coaches fare well in their first game following a midseason firing, going 20-13 ATS in the past 15 years, per Larry Hartstein, and in this case we have a former head coach in Mike McCoy taking over for the worst ATS coach of the century. T'Vondre Sweat is also back in the middle of the Titans defense, making it tougher for the Pats to run the ball, while the Pats defense ranks 31st in net yards per pass attempt, giving Cam Ward a chance to succeed.

FanDuel. Tyjae Spears played 59% of the offensive snaps last week, including 31 of the 44 pass plays. With Tony Pollard largely inefficient, I’m expecting Spears to continue to dominate the pass-play work, after securing four catches for 19 yards last week. The Patriots run defense is stout (sixth in DVOA, per FTN), and the Titans are without leading receiver Calvin Ridley. New England allows 38 receiving yards to opposing running backs, and I’m expecting a negative gamescript for the struggling Titans. I’d bet this up to over 12.5 receiving yards.

Some stats are more persuasive than others. Here’s one that cannot be dismissed: The Titans have dropped 10 in a row ATS in Nashville. So much for home-field advantage. More numbers that might be relevant: Interim coaches, which the Titans have after the firing of Bill Callahan this week, have won just six of the last 23 games outright in their debut. The record is predictable, given that the interim generally takes over a struggling team, but the margins are striking — north of a touchdown on average. The Patriots have relished the road, going 3-0 SU this season. And let’s not forget their coach is Mike Vrabel, who was canned by Tennesee to make room for Callahan. A little payback, perhaps?

Drake Maye has been lights out this year and gets a great matchup against the Titans on Sunday. At first glance, it may seem like a dream matchup for the Patriots running backs, but this team simply can't run the ball. I like Maye to hit on his typical deep shots, but I think he's also likely to throw the ball in the red and green zone. There may be some wind issues, but I don't think they will be dramatic enough for me to be off of this. The Patriots are implied for 24+ points and I think we'll see at least 14 of those via the air attack.

Mike Vrabel Homecoming Game. I believe there's a good chance the Titans get a "new coach bump" and play well Sunday, maybe even upsetting the Patriots. They just allowed 19 points at awful New Orleans, which is quarterbacked these days by Geraldo Rivera or the like. If he's not locked in some empty vault, Geraldo might be an upgrade in the Big Easy. But I digress. The Titans look atrocious and I feel bad for No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, who is taking a beating and fumbling a lot. But they have topped this in both home games. New England has allowed at least 19 points in all three road games. Barring a missed kick, Tennessee should get to at least 17.

We're doubling down on the Patriots this week. I think they're going to score and score often and I don't think the Titans can keep up with them. Tennessee actually ranks pretty decent in recent YPP (5.1 over their last three) but the Pats are coming to town with one thing in mind: Revenge. Tennessee fired Pats coach Mike Vrabel and he will put up 50 points on the Titans if it's viable to do so. Tennessee should be energized by a coaching change, but that doesn't outweigh Vrabel's desire to blow this team out. Getting in before it crosses the key number.

I'm fine laying the number on Pats -7 despite the Titans being in a Dead Cat Bounce spot, because the Revenge Game factor for Mike Vrabel is way too high here. But I'm going to go ahead and jump on this team total now, as it should climb given the Patriots recent production on offense. I think you could alt this up to like 35 honestly ... I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mike Vrabel tried to drop a 50 burger on the team that fired him less than two years ago. The Titans might have done Brian Callahan a favor letting him go a week early before his predecessor came to town.