Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Not sure how many totals I will play this season -- wish we had team totals. But I have generally liked Nashville U6.5 plays at home n the past with Juuse Saros in net, and he's in there tonight. The Finn has a 1.96 home GAA. The Preds can't score much (2.50 GPG) and are without top-six forward Jonathan Marchessault (2G, 2A) again due to injury. Anaheim is certainly no offensive juggernaut and enters having scored one goal each in back-to-back losses.
Stars -1 at home likely will be a popular bet this season for me. Last time I played them at this it lost but that was last Thursday with backup Casey DeSmith in net and it was the team's lone home loss. That shouldn't be a concern Tuesday. Just one home start thus far No. 1 Jake Oettinger, and he allowed two goals in a win. First road game in 10 days for the Jackets, who were money at home last season but well under .500 away (1-1 this year). Dallas has won the home matchup in the series 5-3 the past two seasons.
Reed Sheppard did nothing last year as the No. 3 overall pick out of the draft and was demoted to the G-League at one point. But he will have a major role this season with Fred VanVleet out for the year. Sheppard had big numbers this preseason and should be the Sixth Man in the early going. He topped this in points alone usually in the preseason.
Maybe Western Kentucky was looking ahead to this last Tuesday when it was dominated at home in a big upset by FIU. Louisiana Tech has had basically two weeks, on the other hand, to prepare. The Bulldogs are allowing 17.2 ppg this season, which leads CUSA and ranks No. 5 among all G5 teams. La Tech is 10-2 ATS in its past 12, best in the country since Week 10 of 2024. But I'm not giving 3. Had to wait for status of La Tech QB Blake Baker -- he's playing.
Was hoping for +1 and it was available earlier but gone now because the Canucks will remain without two of their top centers in Brock Boeser and Teddy Blueger. And it's backup Kevin Lankinen in net, but he has been quite good so just a half unit. For Pittsburgh, Arturs Silovs (2.67 GAA) faces his former Vancouver team for the first time. The Pens have points in six straight home games against Vancouver dating to Oct. 16, 2018 (4-0-2). That 2 part is why was hoping for +1.
Two evenly matched clubs, so I would have thought Napoli would be getting this number on the road and not PSV at home, but what do I know? PSV has won seven of its last 12 UEFA competition matches at home against Italian teams and drawn two others -- and all we want is a draw. The Dutch power has lost only three of its past 15 Champions League group stage/league phase matches (W6 D6) overall. Napoli, meanwhile, has dropped its past three away Champions League matches. Rasmus Hojlund, who has a team-best two UCL goals this season, is out injured for the Partenopei.
Certainly not naive to how high-scoring this series has been, but Game 7s usually are low scoring simply as both teams can throw a parade of arms out there with the season on the line and no usage worries. Just quickly looking from the LCS Round (both), five of the past six Game 7s, for example, would land Under this. What's the O/U of total pitchers we may see here? 15.5? Randy Johnson and Dave Stieb may each throw a third of an inning. Man, wish I was a Seattle sports fan on Monday with the M's playing the biggest game in franchise history and the Seahawks home on MNF vs. Houston. Can't remember the last time I had a night like that.
Here's hoping Montreal wingers Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine play after both missed Saturday's loss with minor injuries. But the Habs should be able to beat a banged-up Buffalo team (that lost its only road game by two) regardless. I'm extremely high on Montreal overall this year led by future Hart Trophy winner Cole Caufield. I'd expect at least a point tonight against Sabres journeyman Alex Lyon. Montreal was 4-0 vs. Buffalo last season.
I had this written out last night and was ready to play but decided to hold off as I respect Kraken goalie Joey Daccord. But this is the fourth game of a five-game trip through the East and the front of a B2B so maybe Daccord gets tomorrow -- I'm not planning on that. Nope, I expect a low-scoring Flyers win simply with the Kraken really banged up elsewhere. Jared McCann (3G, 1A) is the latest dealing with something and will sit tonight. Philly netminder Dan Vladar has been excellent with a 1.65 GAA. I'd definitely consider Under 6.5 instead if offered and it is Daccord.
I am starting to research some Monday night stuff and came across Jared Goff's passing yardage total and thought it was awfully low -- why taking it now as I believe it rises (one of our books has 259.5). Granted, he has topped this just twice so far in 2025, but I expect a shootout Monday vs. Baker Mayfield and Goff might have three bills by the third quarter. Our model has him at 261 yards and our AI at nearly 300. Last year in Week 2 at home vs. the Bucs, he threw for 307.
Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka will both apparently play, so yeah I think the Bucs get to 24 now in a probable shootout against a Detroit secondary missing three starters due to suspension/injury. The model has Tampa Bay with 26 points.