Larry's Picks (2 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
Nick Chubb averaged 5.5 yards per carry against the depleted Ravens, but this is a much tougher test. Seattle gives up 3.3 yards per carry overall, 2.9 yards per carry at home. There are indications the Texans want to get rookie Woody Marks more touches. That could eat into Chubb's workload.
The Bucs own a Top-5 rush defense, prompting me to believe Detroit will primarily attack through the air. Over the last three games, Tampa Bay has allowed 3.7 yards per carry. David Montgomery has struggled in the tougher matchups but capitalized on the easy ones. I would play this down to 45.5.
The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense. It's much easier to throw on them than to run into the teeth of a defense featuring Vita Vea. On the road, Tampa Bay is giving up 271 passing yards per game (Atlanta, Houston, Seattle). This sets up as a huge game for Jared Goff, who is expected to get back left tackle Taylor Decker.
Bijan Robinson caught six of eight targets last week vs. Buffalo, and I like him to make at least five grabs Sunday night. He's facing a 49ers' defense missing all-everything linebacker Fred Warner. The Falcons are slight underdogs. In the two games they've lost, Robinson caught six and five passes. For all games this season, Robinson has drawn a 19 percent target share.
With injuries mounting to Washington's receiving corps, Chris Moore has run 21-plus routes in three straight games. Now the Commanders' top three wideouts are out and Moore has a golden opportunity at Dallas. Remember, this is a vet who has recorded two seasons with at least 424 receiving yards. Jayden Daniels should look for Moore often Sunday.
Linebacker Mack Wilson wears the green dot for the Cards and is coming off a nine-tackle performance. This is a great matchup facing Josh Jacobs and the Packers. Look for Wilson to record at least eight combined stops.
Justin Herbert has thrown 155 times over the past four games, clearing this prop total three times. He's facing a Colts' team with a banged-up secondary. Indy's opponents have passed 44, 36, 41 and 38 times the past four weeks. In fact, opponents have thrown 64 percent of the time against the Colts, the NFL's second-highest rate. With the Chargers missing their top two running backs, look for Herbert to throw early and often.
The Colts' injury report is bleak, while the Chargers' injury report is showing some promise. Indy's banged-up secondary is something Justin Herbert can exploit, especially with Quentin Johnston expected to return. Journeyman Jacoby Brissett just threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns at Indianapolis. LA ranks No. 6 in pass efficiency defense and will pose a stiff test for the resurgent Daniel Jones.
Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton has just 13 total tackles the past two weeks, but this is a great matchup against Cam Skattebo and the Giants. Over the past three games, since Jaxson Dart took over at quarterback, the Giants have run the ball an NFL-high 53.4 percent of the time. Singleton has a chance to hit double digits in tackles for the third time this season.
The Jets held J.K. Dobbins to 40 yards rushing last week in London, but he still got 14 carries in a neutral game script. Now Dobbins faces a leaky Giants' run defense in what should be a different game script. I like the Broncos to win by at least a touchdown, and that should mean a heavy dose of Dobbins in the second half. New York gives up 5.1 yards per carry overall and 5.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs. It's unlikely the Giants' offense will be able to maintain long drives, so I like the potential volume for Dobbins here.
Jaxson Dart has rushed for 54 or more yards in each of his starts. It’s one of his best skills. But the Broncos make it a priority to limit QB rushes. That’s why this number is so far below Dart’s average. Even so, I don’t believe it’s low enough. The Broncos’ speedy defense will force Dart to throw to beat them.
Jalen Coker injured his quad right before the season and has yet to play. But Dave Canales indicated Coker will have a significant role in his season debut Sunday at the Jets. Coker figures to be Carolina's primary slot receiver. Signing as an undrafted free agent before last season, Coker caught 32 passes for 478 yards and two touchdowns. He drew raves throughout training camp before suffering the injury. With Sauce Gardner likely focused on Tet McMillan, look for Coker to make an impact.
Jordan Addison has drawn 14 targets since returning from suspension two games ago. That includes three deep targets. With Quinyon Mitchell good to go for the Eagles, Philly's top corner likely will spend much of Sunday covering Justin Jefferson. That should give Addison opportunities against a very beatable Adoree Jackson. The Eagles have surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards to perimeter wideouts.