Mark Williams is set for an increase in usage. …

The Lions love to utilize play action which has been a staple of Detroits offense back when Ben Johnson was calling plays. This has carried over to new OC John Morton and this sets up well for Amon Ra Saint Brown who has been both heavily targeted and extremely efficient, posting an ultra elite 3.65 YPRR on play action. The Bucs are a pass funnel due in large part because of the strength of their run defense, however they’re also very capable of pushing their opponents into additional passing volume. Tampa also blitzes at a high rate and unsurprisingly both St. Brown and Jared Goff have been highly effective. This game offers plenty of elements that could lead to a ceiling game for St. Brown.

We’re going to buy the dip as we’re getting a hefty discount on this receiving line from Tet McMillan who is operating as a clear cut WR1 and has performed well in this role despite low volume and inconsistent QB play. This is a good matchup against a Jets pass defense that ranks 30th in DVOA, 30th in EPA Per Dropback, and 28th in Coverage Grade. They’ve also been extremely generous to opposing number 1 WRs as they are currently dead last in 1st Read EPA. Bryce Young is attempting a first-read throw on 65% of his dropbacks, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. He's trying to get the ball where it is supposed to go and its designed to go to McMillan.

Rashee Rice is back in the lineup for Kansas City Chiefs and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that Rice will hit the ground running. First and foremost Patrick Mahomes is back playing at an elite level coupled with the Chiefs offense being extremely pass heavy this season. It’s been reported that Rice will not be eased into action, which bodes well for the talented WR considering the matchup. The Raiders are playing zone coverage at the fifth highest rate this year (80%) and they are playing Cover 3 at the second-highest rate (46%). Since 2023, Rice has a 28% TPRR and 3.08 YPRR against zone. Rice has been even more efficient against Cover 3 alignments with a 29% TPRR and 3.32 YPRR.

This number is simply too low for Jerry Jeudy who is operating as the number 1 option for what has been an anemic Browns passing offense. There is some signs of hope however as the Browns get a fantastic matchup versus a Miami pass defense that dead last in DVOA, 31st in EPA per Dropback, 30th in Coverage Grade and shapes up as the worst pass defense in the league. It also looks like David Njoku is highly Questionable to suit as well. This number is too low for a WR that drew 13 targets last week and is operating as the primary target for Dillon Gabriel.

This looks to be a strong matchup for Chris Olave who profiles as a significant positive regression candidate. Spencer Rattler has played fairly well especially when given a clean pocket. Meanwhile Chicago’s pass rush ranks dead last in Quick Pressure Rate and 30th in Pass Rush Win Rate. Olave is drawing targets an elite rate and is the clear focal point of New Orleans passing offense. With Chicago checking in as 4.5 point favorites, this could easily shape up as a spike week for Olave. This prop line is much closer to his floor.

Going to fade Etienne again, but this time his rushing attempts line which was set at 15.5. Etienne has gone under this line in consecutive games and significantly cooled off after a hot start that saw him rip off some big runs. Those big runs simply are not sustainable and it hasn’t looked pretty nor effective without them. It’s only a matter of time until Bhayshul Tuten gets some additional opportunities, especially considering the current coaching staff did not draft Etienne, meanwhile Tuten has flashed. I also like that the Rams defense is 11th in EPA Allowed Per Rush, in addition to ranking 7th in Success Rate.

I typically avoid RB receiving props for a variety of reasons but this is a rare one that I like and am backing. For starters Jaylen Warren is an excellent receiving back since entering the league. The combination of Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers are certainly aware of this and in a hyper conservative offense where there just hasn’t been much downfield passing, this number is too low for Warren. I also like that Warren is another week removed from a knee injury and his usage should increase. The Bengals have also surrendered the 5th most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season.

James Cook has been excellent this year combining impressive burst and consistency. He is also on the field a lot more than in previous seasons and his snap share has steadily increased culminating in posting 72% and 73% in back to back weeks. This bodes well for Cook against a weak Falcons run defense where Buffalo are 4.5 road favorites. The Falcons have been excellent in coverage this year and so far teams are choosing to go run heavy against them. I expect that to be the case tonight and for Cook to be heavily featured.

I’m going right back to the Drake Maye well coming off of a very impressive performance and huge upset against the Bills in primetime. Maye ranks third EPA per play, paired with a highly respectable 51% Success Rate. The one weakness for Maye this season has been taking sacks. This bodes well for him considering the Saints have a dismal pass rush. New Orleans ranks 32nd in Pressure Rate and 31st in Quick Pressure Rate signaling we could be in line for a special performance.

Darren Waller popped off last week turning 5 targets into an impressively efficient 5/78/1 stat line. Considering Waller is still on a pitch count, this was certainly an impressive performance, however I don’t believe it’s sustainable and Waller faces a much more difficult matchup this week against a very stingy Charger pass defense who ranks 8th in EPA allowed per dropback, and 2nd in Success Rate. The Chargers have surrendered just 145 yards to opposing Tight Ends this season. With Waller still on a pitch count and already on the injury report, I think there is a strong chance last weeks performance will be his best game of the season.

In our last pick, we identified a positive regression candidate in BTJ, here we have the opposite with Travis Etienne who I think is a great fade this week. Etienne has had some big runs this season, but those are simply not sustainable, and he ranks low in Success Rate which is additional evidence he has run hot. He gets a very tough matchup versus a Seattle run defense that is 3rd in EPA allowed per rush, in addition to ranking 5th in Success Rate.

I’m going to continue to beat the drum for Brian Thomas Jr. who has allthe makings of a major positive regression candidate. For starters, BTJ has elite route participation paired with his first read target rate (meaning the passing offense still primarily runs through him). He’s also running strong routes as evidenced by his Open Score. Finally he gets a plus matchup against an extremely banged up Seahawks defense that is a significant pass funnel in a game with shoot out potential and a healthy total. This line should be at least 63.5 and this is a 1.5u play for me.

Brian Thomas Jr appears to be a serious positive regression candidate. While it’s been a disappointing start to the season there is much to be encouraged by. First and foremost he possesses close to 100% route participation. Hes been a strong route runner this year and has posted a strong Open Score. We also love his 19% First Read Target Rate and in a game where increased passing volume is very possible, this looks like a great spot to back the talented sophomore WR.

Xavier Worthy is set to be the focal point of Kansas City’s passing attack. He turned 8 targets last week into 5/83 and posted a very healthy 26% First Read Targets/Route combined with a sterling 2.68 Yards Per Target. He will face what has been a stout Jags defense that has performed very well, but I suspect they might be a paper tiger, while teams are opting to throw frequently in neutral gamescripts indicating they may not be as good as the numbers indicate.