The weather won't be as bad as initially predicted, but it will still be very windy. That should hurt the Dolphins more than the Browns, who can rely on Quinshon Judkins and their defense. Cleveland allows 4.7 yards per play overall (3.4 yards per play at home) and just 3.1 yards per rush (2.4 at home). Miami leads the NFL in turnover-worthy plays, so the Browns could get some short fields.

Mother Nature is largely responsuble for driving down this total below five TDs. While stiff winds could pose a problem to passers and kickers, the forecast Sunday morning suggests the rain could subside well before game's end. More importantly, Miami ranks 31st in yards and 29th in points permitted. Browns QB Dillan Gabriel should be more at ease in his third start. The Dolphins have misplaced their customary big-play capability but are still mid-pack in scoring offense. Their games average 51 points, well above this total.

This line of 192.5 on Fanduel is significantly higher than some other books (DK has it at 184.5). We cashed on this prop last week, and I see no reason not to fade Tagovailoa’s passing yards total again. Heavy wind gusts in Cleveland should keep the Dolphins aerial attack limited. Now they will be under siege by Myles Garrett & one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Miami’s offense just isn’t themselves without WR1 Tyreek Hill. With trade rumors now surfacing around WR2 Jaylen Waddle, I don’t see the Dolphins clicking against a very well-coached Browns defense. Tagovailoa is under this total in 3/6 games this season, and went under by a wide margin in each of those 3 games.

The Miami Dolphins have shown fight since Darren Waller got his first action in week four against the New York Jets. Miami had leads late before losing by three points to Carolina, and two points to the Chargers. Sunday could be the complete bottom spot for Miami against a Browns team that is now settled in after playing in Europe two weeks ago. Tail the home favorite here in Cleveland.

Reports of 20+ MPH winds in Cleveland are expected to impact this game. The total got smashed down from 40.5 to 35.5, and I’m a bit late to the Quinshon Judkins rushing props party, so I’ll go a different direction. I don’t expect rookie QB Dillon Gabriel to take many risks airing the ball out. Miami’s run defense is bottom of the league, so Judkins should get a steady diet of carries all game. The Browns are surprisingly -2.5 favorites in this matchup, and if they aren’t in a trailing game script for once, they won’t have to throw the ball in less than ideal conditions.

Quinshon Judkins has a pristine matchup against the Dolphins' run defense on Sunday. He should also be given a massive workload, given the weather concerns, including rain and high winds. His rushing line has already moved up this week, but I still love the over. And I'll be laddering this up to 120 rushing yards for plus odds. Judkins ran for 110 yards against the Vikings two weeks ago and now gets the Dolphins' defense, which has given up the most rushing yards in the NFL through six weeks. The weather, game script, and matchup are all in his favor. So even with the big line moving up, I still look for him to soar over.

Judkins is going to be the bellcow for the Browns in a bad weather game against the worst defense in football. The market is keenly aware: his yardage number has steamed up to a ridiculous 95.5 over/under. That's like a peak CMC/Saquon digit and it's wild to see. But the Dolphins are that bad against the run, giving up the most yards/game in the NFL along with 5.6 yards per attempt. This anytime touchdown price hasn't caught up to the yardage prop yet, especially considering how willing the Browns are to feed Judkins at the goal line.

This number is simply too low for Jerry Jeudy who is operating as the number 1 option for what has been an anemic Browns passing offense. There is some signs of hope however as the Browns get a fantastic matchup versus a Miami pass defense that dead last in DVOA, 31st in EPA per Dropback, 30th in Coverage Grade and shapes up as the worst pass defense in the league. It also looks like David Njoku is highly Questionable to suit as well. This number is too low for a WR that drew 13 targets last week and is operating as the primary target for Dillon Gabriel.

Have a semi-connection to both cities as Bernie Kosar is one of my favorite sports dudes ever from Canes-dom. Even though he sounds like a Muppet. Kosar started it all at the U. I so wanted the late-1980s Browns to win a Super Bowl after Kosar won a natty at UM. Probably the first collegiate player I cared about in the NFL. Rocket Ismail was another. Different era. Anyways, we know Miami's Tua Tagovailoa is bad away and in bad weather. The forecast for Sunday on the southern shore of Lake Erie: "Rain showers early with a steady, soaking rain later in the day. Increasing winds. Thunder possible. High near 70F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%." Rugby weather!

So let's simplify this handicap from the start; it's weather based as much as anything else. Rain is expected throughout the day beginning early and continuing through kickoff but the wind here is the key. Winds are expected to be steady from 12-22 mph with gusts up to 30mph. Now for the football part: Tua is 5th when it comes to shortest intended air yards and has lost his field spacer in Hill but gone over this number in back to back games. The Browns are better against the run than the pass but aided by the elements we've got a recipe to go under here.

This number has steamed considerably but it was initially high because the books knew people would take it. Honestly, they'd get action on it at 95.5, the matchup is that good. Four straight lead RBs versus Miami have averaged at least 5.7 yards per rush. The Dolphins run defense that couldn't stop Kimani Vidal last week, a new low even for them. This is a winnable game for Cleveland, and they somehow opted to not run Judkins much last week (12 carries), allowing him to have less wear and tear on his body entering this matchup. Bank on 100+ yards from Judkins.

The weather conditions in Cleveland are worth keeping an eye on over the next few days, as it's expected to be rainy and extremely windy, with gusts potentially up to 60 mph, per a Thursday report. That sets up well for the Browns to attack the Dolphins on the ground, and even with Devon Achane on the other side I'm not sure the Dolphins have what it takes to get this game to 40 points against that Browns defense. With kicking likely an adventure, we're going to need six TDs to get to 40 points and I don't see that happening in a game where possessions will probably be limited due to the ticking clock.

The Dolphins have given up at least 27 points in five of their six games, and they could've in the other had Braelon Allen not fumbled inside the 5. The weather may be windy and rainy, which would lead the Browns to lean on the run game even more, and that works out well since the Dolphins have already allowed more than 1,000 rushing yards this season (most in the league). Judkins hasn't scored in either of the last two games, but I expect this number to shoot up based on the matchup so I'm locking it in now.

Dillon Gabriel finally gets to make his first start in Cleveland, and the matchup couldn't be any better. The Browns should be able to run all over an awful Dolphins defense and keep him from seeing too many spots where he could put the ball in danger. He hasn't done that yet this season despite facing the Vikings and Steelers defenses the last two weeks. I don't expect his first pick of the season to come against a Miami defense that has just one interception all year. This is a great number to fade a pick with the Browns favored in this game.

The Browns laying points? In 2025? It seems absurd, and yet I find myself trying to figure out how the Dolphins win this game and coming up stumped. The Browns have the best run defense in the league, and the Dolphins' passing game without Tyreek Hill doesn't scare anyone, especially if the offensive line has trouble protecting Tua Tagovailoa against Myles Garrett and Co. This is also the perfect defense for the Browns to face, one that managed one sack against the Chargers' patchwork O-line and that hasn't stopped any run game this year. My ratings say this should be a point lower, but the matchups make the Browns a nice play laying less than 3.