Houston’s offense finally woke up in their last game, but their 44 point outing came against a Ravens defense in despair. I expect them to struggle early on the road against this top-ranked Seattle defense, that is very well-schemed under Mike Macdonald. It looks as if both CB Devon Witherspoon and FS Julian Love both may play tonight. If Seattle has their full complement of DB’s locking down in coverage, C.J Stroud will be under duress against this defensive live (as per usual). This game may come down to which QB makes the fewest “big” mistakes, so we could see some conservative game planning early on. Give me the 1H Under.

Although Seattle has had much more success on the road than at home as of late, they are 3-1 SU & ATS when playing as the favorite this year. The Texans may draw some bets as dogs here, coming off back-to-back routings of the Titans & Ravens. However, those are two of the most broken teams in the league, and I’m not sure the Texans will have fixed their glaring offensive line issues coming out of the bye. Houston’s offense put up just 9 points against the Rams, 19 against the Bucs, and 10 against the Jags. I’ll back Seattle’s defense at home to give C.J Stroud and the Texans problems. This line is headed to -3.5 on some books, so get this in now.

Mayfield soared over this rushing yards total in the first 3 games this season, but fell a few yards shy in each of his last 3. That gives us value on this number here in a Primetime matchup. Mayfield has led the Bucs to a 5-1 record with clutch play, and has gotten some huge 4th quarter first downs with his legs. Along with a banged up WR corps, Mayfield has had to navigate through an injured offensive line. I expect him to be flushed out of the pocket by monster DE Aidan Hutchinson and this Lions defensive line, that may also get DT Alim McNeil back tonight. The Lions play a high rate of man-to-man coverage, so Mayfield should have his chances to scramble.

There’s no way I’m not betting on St. Brown tonight, after his fairly quiet game in a loss against the Chiefs last week. St. Brown had 9 receptions on 10 targets, but was held to just 45 receiving yards by Trent McDuffie and the well-coached KC defensive backs. St. Brown also had an uncharacteristic drop on 4th down, which proved to be a turning point in that game. I expect him to come out firing on all cylinders tonight, against a Bucs secondary that is vulnerable to get beat by explosive plays. St. Brown always gets strong target share, so I’m good with playing this high receiving yards total. The game total of 53.5 implies offense, and St. Brown should be a focal point tonight.

Otton is over this receiving yards total in back-to-back weeks, and has another opportunity for a productive game here. The Lions secondary is undermanned coming into Monday night, so I imagine their backup DB’s will play a heavier dose of zone coverage and look to limit explosive throws from Baker Mayfield. The Bucs have a banged up O-line, an injury-ridden WR room, and no Bucky Iriving. Mayfield might need to get the ball out quick against Detroit’s pass rush. Otton should see enough targets to clear this total for a third-straight week.

The Lions are extremely thin in the secondary. CB’s Terrion Arnold & Avonte Maddox have been ruled out, FS Kerby Joseph will miss this game with a knee injury, and SS Brian Branch is serving a one-game suspension. Mayfield should look to exploit Detroit through the air, after watching Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have their way with them last week. The Bucs are +6 dogs and the total is 53.5, which imply they could be in a trailing game script and/or shootout against the Lions. Mayfield is a legit early season MVP contender, and I expect him to try to show out on Monday night. I would play this up to 35.5.

Bet MGM has this total at 52.5, which is point better than you’re getting on most other books. Everyone is expecting a shootout between Goff & Mayfield on Monday night, and I don’t see how this one fails to deliver. Both Tampa & Detroit’s secondaries are ripe for the picking. Following a loss, the Lions have been world-beaters under Dan Campbell. Between both teams, they have been involved in 6 games this season that went over this total in high scoring affairs. We saw the highest total of the season yesterday (55.5 in WASH-DAL) soar over, and I’m not sure oddsmakers can set this one high enough either. Play the over and enjoy the show.

The Cowboys get back their star WR1 CeeDee Lamb but the value is all on George Pickens, who has scored in 5 straight games. Dak Prescott connected with Pickens for 9 receptions on 11 targets for 168 yards last week, and I expect them to keep it rolling against a very beatable Commanders secondary. The total in this game is a sky high 54.5, which implies the potential for a whole lot of touchdowns. At +155 to score a TD, I’ve gotta ride with Pickens to make it six in a row.

Herbert finally connected with McConkey for a big game last week, with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 100 yards & a TD. I expect him to keep that momentum rolling this week, against a Colts secondary that is injured and undermanned. Last week, Cardinals backup QB Jacoby Brissett threw for 300+ yards against Indy, and hooked up with WR Zay Jones for 79 receiving yards. The Colts allowed 20+ yard pass plays to 6 different Cardinals. I think they are liable to get lit up by Herbert and McConkey.

Herbert is over this passing yards total in 3/6 games this season, and gets an excellent matchup this week. Indy’s secondary is decimated with injury. CB Charvarious Ward was just placed on IR following a concussion, and top-tier slot corner Kenny Moore is ‘questionable’ to play as he deals with an achilles injury. With other DB’s like Jaylon Jones & Mike Hilton sidelined as well, this Colts defense could be in trouble, especially if Moore doesn’t play. Herbert got some momentum rolling last week against a soft Dolphins defense, throwing 29/38 for 264 yards & 2 TDs. I think he can put up a similar stat line here against a super thin Colts secondary.

I understand the Broncos being large home favorites at Mile High, but +8.5 seems too wide. Considering how poorly their offense played last week against the hopeless Jets, I’m not sure Denver should be laying more than a TD on the spread against anyone. This will certainly be a difficult road start for rookie QB Jaxson Dart, but the Giants have some newfound moxie in them after beating the Eagles last week. I think they will be more competitive in this game than the market suggests.

This line of 192.5 on Fanduel is significantly higher than some other books (DK has it at 184.5). We cashed on this prop last week, and I see no reason not to fade Tagovailoa’s passing yards total again. Heavy wind gusts in Cleveland should keep the Dolphins aerial attack limited. Now they will be under siege by Myles Garrett & one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Miami’s offense just isn’t themselves without WR1 Tyreek Hill. With trade rumors now surfacing around WR2 Jaylen Waddle, I don’t see the Dolphins clicking against a very well-coached Browns defense. Tagovailoa is under this total in 3/6 games this season, and went under by a wide margin in each of those 3 games.

Reports of 20+ MPH winds in Cleveland are expected to impact this game. The total got smashed down from 40.5 to 35.5, and I’m a bit late to the Quinshon Judkins rushing props party, so I’ll go a different direction. I don’t expect rookie QB Dillon Gabriel to take many risks airing the ball out. Miami’s run defense is bottom of the league, so Judkins should get a steady diet of carries all game. The Browns are surprisingly -2.5 favorites in this matchup, and if they aren’t in a trailing game script for once, they won’t have to throw the ball in less than ideal conditions.

I’m ready to sell high on the Bears, who are feeling themselves on this 3-game win streak. However, two of those games were decided by one point. Chicago beat a broken Cowboys defense, the turnover-happy Raiders, and a beat up Commanders team that fumbled away their potential game-winning drive. Saints QB Spencer Rattler will be up against his old coach Dennis Allen, who is now DC for the Bears. However, Rattler may be looking for revenge against Caleb Williams, who took his starting job in college at Oklahoma. This 1-5 Saints team has quietly been competitive in almost all of their games, and I think they are live to beat the Bears here.

This London game is expected to be impacted by weather. Reports show rain and wind gusts likely to persist throughout the game. The Rams will be without WR1 Puka Nacua & RT Rob Havenstein, and Jacksonville’s defense has been much improved under DC Anthony Campanile. The Rams defensive line should keep Trevor Lawrence & the Jags offense uncomfortable, who struggled last week against the Seahawks putting up just 12 points. This total opened up at 46 and was bet down, but I still feel there is value at Under 44.5 or better.