Serious hesitancy taking the Chiefs at such an outsized number, but Kansas City is home with its offense at full strength with Rashee Rice back. With Jakobi Meyers joining Brock Bowers sidelined, KC will key on Ashton Jeanty. Las Vegas has already lost three games by this margin, while KC’s last three wins have exceeded this margin. Divisional games are usually closer than expected, but the Chiefs have won by margin in this rivalry. Laying double digits with Kansas City has been a losing bet as it goes up big then sits on the ball – it hasn’t covered 10+ in two years – but the Chiefs hold a huge line of scrimmage advantage on defense, and with a weak slate, heck, let’s roll.

Rashee Rice is back in the lineup for Kansas City Chiefs and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that Rice will hit the ground running. First and foremost Patrick Mahomes is back playing at an elite level coupled with the Chiefs offense being extremely pass heavy this season. It’s been reported that Rice will not be eased into action, which bodes well for the talented WR considering the matchup. The Raiders are playing zone coverage at the fifth highest rate this year (80%) and they are playing Cover 3 at the second-highest rate (46%). Since 2023, Rice has a 28% TPRR and 3.08 YPRR against zone. Rice has been even more efficient against Cover 3 alignments with a 29% TPRR and 3.32 YPRR.

The Raiders won and covered against the Titans last week, but the offense had just 226 yards as it continues to struggle without Kolton Miller and Brock Bowers. They've had one TD drive longer than 2 yards the last two weeks combined, and they can't count on the Chiefs making mistakes and giving them the ball in scoring territory this week. The Chiefs defense is starting to come on with a quality performance against a great Lions offense that had less than 300 yards and only 17 points. I can't see Vegas getting to those numbers in this matchup.

Jumping all over the Chiefs now, even though it's a huge number at the open. Rashee Rice is back and that should spark an offense that started finding its groove Sunday night against the Lions. None of the Chiefs losses are "bad" per se and they're just one game back of the lead in the AFC West with a questionable Raiders team coming to town. If they slow down Ashton Jeanty and force Geno Smith to throw, they'll get some short fields and I don't think Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes will take their foot off the gas in this one. Fully expect this number to keep climbing throughout the week.