DraftKings. While Kyle Pitts has seen steady targets with Michael Penix under center, the tight-end hasn’t regularly cashed in on deep throws. Only one of his 24 targets has traveled at least 20 air yards (incomplete) and he only has one catch of at least 20 yards this season. The Bills play two-high safeties at the fourth highest rate (61%), and keep everything in front of them (opposing QBs with the sixth lowest aDOT, 6.8 yards). Also, I’m expecting the Falcons to go run heavy against the vulnerable Bills defense.

Not much to garner from either team’s early season performances when it comes to a handicap. The Falcons defense looks great, but it’s gone up against some suspect offenses. The Bills offense looks great, but it’s gone up against some suspect defenses. Buffalo’s defense is the most concerning unit, but it’s why the visitors are at a relative discount against an Atlanta team that defeated J.J. McCarthy and Marcus Mariotta but also got shut out by … Carolina. Josh Allen should play extremely well indoors, and we’ve seen how he can soar at the end of games. I was originally going to side with the Falcons around +5.5 to +6, but since the line has come down substantially, there’s value with the Bills under 4.

It’s no secret I like Allen to use his legs in this game. I took TD, 2+ TD’s, and I also like him to clear this rushing yards total. Allen is over this mark in 3/5 games this year, and went over by a wide margin in each of them. I feel that is likely to happen against the Falcons indoors on this fast field. Despite their 4-1 start, the Bills have looked a bit shaky considering the expectations for this team. Coming off a loss to the Patriots at home in Buffalo, I expect Allen to play aggressively here. Atlanta has a very talented secondary, so if Allen is looking to play “hero ball”, he may have to do it with his scrambling.

At +700 (12.5% implied odds) there is value in a small sprinkle on this. Over his last 25 games played (this season & last + playoffs) Allen scored 2+ rushing TD’s in 5 of them. He has thrived in dome environments throughout his career, and will look to bounce back on the road at Mercedes Benz Stadium. Coming off a disappointing loss to a division rival, Allen might take matters into his own hands in this Primetime game. 0.25u play.

Getting even money on Josh Allen to score in a dome environment feels too good to pass up. Allen has scored 11 rushing touchdowns in dome games for his career. He has 3 TD’s already this season, and has 12 red zone carries. The Bills have the league’s second best “tush push” attack after the Eagles, so if the Bills get the ball inside the 2 yard line this should be a winner. Atlanta’s secondary is allowing the fewest pass yards per game, so look for Allen to take matters into his own hands.

Let's get the hard part out of the way; Josh Allen playing indoors on a fast track has been super human during his career. However Josh Allen doesn't play both sides of the ball and this Bills defense is a concern. They're down a number of contributors and face a Falcons team that has a number of dynamic playmakers in space. If we're leaning into priors this number makes sense...based on current form I'm barely at Buffalo -3. We'll take the rested home dog even against a Bills side that will be more buttoned up after their loss on SNF

Drake London lined up in the slot often and caught eight of 10 targets in Atlanta's last game. Then he had the bye to get back to 100 percent following his shoulder injury. Darnell Mooney is out for Monday Night Football, so I like London to get another big workload vs. Buffalo. The Bills allow the highest target rate to wideouts when adjusting for schedule. Even with Atlanta's run-heavy script, there is still room for London to clear this prop total. I'm also fine playing this Over 6.5 at plus money.

My simulations make this line -6.5 for Buffalo, while the SportsLine model projects it at -14 (!!). Atlanta’s defensive metrics are inflated due to a soft early-season schedule against weak opposing quarterback play.

James Cook has been excellent this year combining impressive burst and consistency. He is also on the field a lot more than in previous seasons and his snap share has steadily increased culminating in posting 72% and 73% in back to back weeks. This bodes well for Cook against a weak Falcons run defense where Buffalo are 4.5 road favorites. The Falcons have been excellent in coverage this year and so far teams are choosing to go run heavy against them. I expect that to be the case tonight and for Cook to be heavily featured.

Normally I'd wait until much closer to kickoff Monday but this is the last 4.5 on our board and I definitely want over that key number of 4 for a 27-23 result or the like. Our model has the Bills blowing out the Falcons. But Atlanta is out of its bye week and pretty healthy other than Darnell Mooney. I'd argue the Falcons have the better overall roster ... but the Bills have the ultimate trump card in Josh Allen. He might struggle a little considering the Falcons entered Week 6 leading the NFL in total defense (244.0 YPG) and pass defense (135.0 YPG). Only Buffalo's second road game so far.

As much as Buffalo is renowned for its offense, the defense ranks ninth for yards allowed. Who's No. 1? Yes, Atlanta. In fact, it has yielded 19 fewer passing yards per outing than the second stingiest team in the category -- Buffalo. Opponents average two TDs per game gainst the A-T-L. It seems unlikely this matchup will reach a half-hundred on the scoreboard. The concern, of course, is the Bills' quick-strike ability. An extra week to prepare for Atlanta, coming off a bye, should help.

The Bills have played an easy schedule, and four of the five games have come at home. They are vulnerable to good ground games, as they've given up the highest rate of explosive rushes. This sets up well for a rested Atlanta team featuring Bijan Robinson (4.9 ypc). With linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) expected to miss this one, I love Atlanta to keep this close.

The Bills are looking to wash away the sting of a primetime loss last week, and while their MVP QB is known for his rushing ability, it's the other QB's rushing prop I like here. The Bills have given up at least 10 rush yards to every QB they've faced, including Tua Tagovailoa and two different Jets QBs in the same game. Spencer Rattler racked up 49 yards against them two weeks ago. Penix doesn't run a ton but he had 5-yard rushes in each of his last two games, plus 21 yards in Week 1. Considering the trend for the Bills, this is a number we should be able to pass, and I'm not too worried about kneeldowns.

Atlanta allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 39 yards on five carries in Week 1. In fact, the Falcons' defense, while statistically impressive overall, has critical vulnerabilities that favor mobile quarterbacks like Josh Allen. Atlanta ranks 25th in QB rush EPA and 28th in scramble defense EPA. Allen enters Week 6 averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game. The Falcons faced Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo back in 2021. Allen had 15 carries for 81 yards. He will be doing everything possible to win this game after a loss. I like this prop, especially indoors, where Allen has rushed over 50 yards in four straight games dating back to last year.

Atlanta, coming off of a bye week with two weeks to prepare for the Bills, puts them in a good spot. But what really puts them in an even better spot is the talent they have in the backfield with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Both backs should find room to run and I like how the Falcons defensive front 7 is athletic enough to get after Josh Allen.

Losses have tended to be clumped together for the Bills over the last few years, but I'm banking on them to bounce back against the Falcons. This line was Bills -5.5 on the lookahead and we're getting two points of value after a game with three uncharacteristic turnovers. The Falcons defense has played well this year but has gotten to face J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young and Marcus Mariota since giving up three TDs to Baker Mayfield in Week 1. Michael Penix Jr. will need to be playing at peak level to keep this game close, and I see value fading that and hoping for the mean outcome for Atlanta's offense.