No question the Bears have found something under Ben Johnson, though it’s important to remember their offensive success has come against a pair of terrible defenses. Problematic for Chicago on Monday night are rainy conditions in Washington, which not only play into the Commanders’ strengths – ground game, defense – but should cause an issue for the Bears field-stretching desires. Not helping matters is the visitors employing Jake Moody as kicker in this weather. Forget the “revenge” factor after last year’s Hail Mary finish. That’s meaningless. Deebo Samuel getting cleared ultimately made my decision to back Washington in no man’s land after the line increased. He’s a key element alongside Jayden Daniels and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

FanDuel. D’Andre Swift is under this line in three of four games this season. He’s been brutal on the ground, with only 3.3 yards per carry. He’ll face a very stout Commanders front - Washington ranks fifth in rushing defense DVOA (per FTN) and allows opposing running backs only 3.4 yards per carry. And while Swift does get check-down targets, the Commanders secondary has been vulnerable against wide receivers - I’m expecting Caleb Williams to get his big play threats the ball out wide.

Odunze has scored in 4/4 games to start the year, and has a favorable matchup against the Commanders here. Washington plays man coverage at a top-10 rate, which Odunze has seen more than 40% of the target share against. When the Bears are in the red zone, expect Williams to continue looking for Odunze.

We're seeing Chicago scorelines hover right around 50 points this season so clearing 49.5 definitely looks possible tonight in Landover. The Bears of course look to atone for that Hail Mary loss to the Commanders at this site last October 27, but the offense has moved more consistently this season under new HC Ben Johnson. Chicago is scoring a tick above 25 ppg as Caleb Williams is becoming very comfy with top target Rome Odunze, already on 20 catches thru four games. Meanwhile the Commanders are scoring at a 32 ppg pace the past three games and two of those were even minus QB Jayden Daniels, who returned to lead the impressive win over the Chargers last week. Play Bears-Commanders Over

Lots of angles here, not the least of which a chance for the Bears to atone for last October's bitter 18-15 loss at Washington on the infamous "Hail Mary/Fail Mary" Jayden Daniels to Noah Brown 52-yard TD on the final play of the game. That result turned around the season for both teams, especially Chicago, which proceeded to lose its next nine games. The new season, however, has seen Chicago rally from an 0-2 start to win its last two games. Caleb Williams and the Bears offense has progressed much under new HC Ben Johnson, and remember Chicago also won in a 40-20 romp at Landover in October of 2023, when it was still Justin Fields at the controls of the offense. Play Bears

Caleb Williams is fresh off his team’s bye. He has at least five rushes in every game. Monday, he’s facing a Commanders team with a Top-3 pressure rate. Look for Williams to scramble his way to at least 25 yards.

First, we're assuming Deebo (bruised heel) is active; late word is that he is expected to give it a go tonight. Second, assuming he's on the field, will the Commanders make use of him on a jet-sweep or end-around, which they didn't at the Chargers last Sunday? Note, however, that Deebo is averaging 6.6 yards on his seven rushing attempts, and if he's on the field, Kliff Kingsbury is likely to make use of him in varied capacities after he's caught 17 passes the past two games. There are so many ways Deebo can contribute, and we're basically looking at just one carry on an end-around or a sweep that could easily net him 7 yards or more. Play Deebo Over 6.5 YR

Daniels looks fully healthy since returning from his knee injury, and I think he will be on the move in this Monday night matchup. Daniels is Top-10 in scramble rate, and the Bears have one of the league’s weakest run defenses. The Bears play a high rate of man coverage, so Daniels should have opportunities to use his legs to beat the defense. This game is expected to feature some wind and rain, which may cause a more ground-heavy approach.

Bet Rivers has the only -2.5 I saw on the board, which is obviously significant. This handicap is simple: Bears QB Caleb Williams has made 10 career road starts, and is 1-9 ATS in the first half of those games. That is the worst cover rate in 1H out of any QB over the past two seasons. I like Jayden Daniels and the Commander's to start strong at home and cover this 1H spread.

Rome Odunze is averaging approximately 9 targets per game and he gets a matchup againt a Commanders team that can give up a lot of splash plays on the back end. I do worry about Caleb Williams efficiency against the pass rush, but I also think that he'll be able to hit his primary read for some chunk gains against man coverage, which the Commanders frequently play. It's possible that there are more pass catchers incorporated coming out of the bye, but Rome Odunze is the clear favorite of Caleb and that won't change on Monday night. If Washington takes command in this one early, a negative game script also helps this prop.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt handled 69.7% of the backfield touches for Washington last week. He made the most of it, rushing for 150 yards against the Chargers. He had seven rushes for 10 or more yards and two rushes over 20 yards, showing his explosiveness. Now he gets the Bears' defense, which is the worst in the NFL against the run, giving up the most yards per carry (6.6 yards/carry).

Rome Odunze leads the Bears' receivers with a 26% target share and 40% air yards share. He also has a 27% red zone target share and has five touchdowns in four games already. Dan Quinn and the Washington defense blitz at a high rate, and against the blitz, Caleb Williams has targeted Odunze 38% of the time. Look for Odunze to continue to be Williams' top target. I like that Odunze's ATD price has not moved, despite scoring in every game.

Chicago will definitely be looking to make amends for a very embarrassing loss to Washington last season on a Hail Mary play after a Bears player taunted the Washington fans. The Commanders have been a bit inconsistent and much of that is due to injury. The Bears are in a learning process with a new head coach and the bye week ought to serve that purpose well. Finally, Dan Quinn has a fantastic track record in division games. He has a very poor record in the game prior to a division game. I'll ride that history here with the Commanders traveling to Dallas next week.

This is a pretty high total when you consider that JCM hasn't commanded the majority of the RB touches through 5 weeks, but it looks like that officially changed last week. JCM was fantastic against the Chargers and had plenty of explosive runs en route to 111 yards on 14 carries. Now he gets a Bears defense allowing a staggering 6+ YPC. I'm expecting at least 12 carries this week and that should be more than enough (notable that Chris Rodriguez may not play for Washington).

Chicago has played really well in their last couple of outings, which was good for this young team. The bye week came at the wrong time, as they really were buzzing. However, coming off of the bye against this particular team, who they should've beaten last year, is a great thing. Expect a back-and-forth affair that'll keep this game under that point spread.

Caleb Williams often struggles on the road (career 38 percent success rate). Both his interceptions this season have come on the road. He's coming off an easy matchup with the Raiders in which he averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt. This will be tougher, as Washington ranks No. 2 in pressure rate (46.9 percent). The Commanders should run wild against a Bears' defense allowing 6.1 yards per carry. Even without Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels has enough weapons to cover.

The Commanders are coming off an impressive cross-country win over the Chargers, averaging 7.1 yards per play against what's typically a strong defense. They bring a league-best 5.9 yards per carry mark into a matchup with a league-worst Bears rush defense (6.1 yards per carry) that was gashed by the Raiders prior to their bye, but they won a second straight game thanks to four turnovers and FG drives of -4, -1 and 16 yards. The Commanders have turned the ball over only three times all year, so don't count on similar help. I don't think this line should've moved down from the -5 lookahead number, and if anything, I see the Commanders as deserving of being bigger favorites after the Chargers win.