DraftKings. Kareem Hunt is under this line in three of his five games this season, with only two of his 43 carries going for more than 9 yards. He gets a brutal matchup against the Lions who have the second highest stuff rate against the run (per Fantasy Points), and rank fourth in rush defense DVOA (per FTN). In a three way timeshare now, Hunt saw his lowest snap rate last week, and likely will operate in short-yardage and goal line opportunities.

Brashard Smith has carved out a niche as KC's best receiving back. He has caught three passes each of the past two weeks, racking up 27 and 32 yards. With the wind potentially affecting longer throws Monday night at Arrowhead, I like Smith to get a few opportunities yet again.

The Chiefs have been inching closer toward their expected level of performance over the last couple of weeks – even despite their absurd late loss to the Jaguars. The Lions, meanwhile, have been dominant over the last month, but their level of competition has been seriously suspect. Detroit will be down a couple key defenders Sunday night as Kansas City has brought back reinforcements on offense. KC also has its collective back firmly against the wall standing 2-3 on the young season. We’ve seen the Chiefs win but fail to cover games like this recently, so splitting your bet between the spread and moneyline is a strategy that can be employed if concerned.

The Lions have looked like world-beaters over the last 4 games, but against who? A Ravens defense in disarray, the Bears without their two best DB’s, the Joe Flacco Browns and the Jake Browning Bengals. Now they head to KC to face a 2-3 Chiefs team in desperation mode, following their upset loss to Jacksonville last week. The Lions are extremely banged up on defense, with 4 starting DBs either ruled out or ‘questionable’ to play this game. Their offensive line will also be without LT Taylor Decker. This Chiefs offense is starting to come alive, and I think Mahomes brings the Lions back to earth on Sunday night.

Style points here suggests the Lions, who haven't lost since opening week vs. the Pack, and scored better than 40 ppg since. This matchup also recalls opening week of the 2023 season on a Thursday night special in which Detroit announced itself as a contender with a 21-20 upset. Since that opener vs. Green Bay, the Lions have got their running game going which has set up everything else for Jared Goff and the offense. The Chiefs continue to play in a low-variance manner and are now losing these close decisions, three of five already this season, including last Monday at Jacksonville, leaving little margin for error. Patrick Mahomes being asked to deliver magic every week is a hard act to follow. Play Lions

The public is all over the Lions, as they’re one of the best cover teams in the league so far. However, Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes are 16-1 SU as home favorites when laying less than a touchdown and 19-3 SU in Primetime at home. It’s a good buy low spot for the Chiefs who still have a top 10 offense against a depleted Detroit defense.

Lets not bury the lede; the Lions are an absolute ATS juggernaut going back to 2021. They've rattled off covers at over a 70% clip during that span and Dan Campbell is a gambling hall of famer. However this Lions group is dealing with a rash of injuries at a few key positions most notably along the OL and in the secondary. Kansas City was the wrong side loser on MNF given an improbable sequence of events late. For me I make this game 3 so having a chance to lay a cheaper ML (even with a high total) becomes enough to trigger a bet. In Mahomes and Reid we trust in the marquee game of the weekend

It's surprising the Lions are catching points against anyone right now, and my initial instinct is to grab the points and run. That is apparently how many are treating the game as well. So what gives with the line? My gut tells me the desperate Chiefs will find a way to win a primetime game at home they have to have. The offense looked great last week against Jacksonville, and they'll get to face a beat-up Lions defense that has lost three cornerbacks in the last couple weeks. The Lions offense had less than 300 yards against the Packers and Browns, so if the Chiefs D plays up to its talent level, they should win this game.

DraftKings. DraftKings. This is a bit of an eye-opening line for Xavier Worthy, who has at least five catches in ten straight full games dating back to last season. He’ll face a Lions secondary that’s down their top three cornerbacks, and both safeties are also banged up. The Chiefs should have to air it out in this matchup as is, with their run game struggling, and the Lions ranked fourth in run defense DVOA (per FTN). Expecting Worthy to see some screens and short looks, to complement the deep shots, as he should once again be in line for 8-10 targets. I’d bet this up to -150.