This is way more juice than you will normally see from me, but Fanduel is giving us a price that I think has some value. Most books have this in the -170 range and it's for good reason. Baker is up against a decimated secondary tonight, but the Lions defensive line will be stout. That will translate to an air attack from the Bucs and I expect them to put up their points via the passing game. I'll note I lean to Baker Mayfield's pass completions, attempts and yardage over, but I'm waiting for some lines to settle back down to where I'm more comfortable taking them.

This line is at BetMGM and it's notable that the line is 54.5 at DK and 59.5 at FD. Vidal's rush attempt line is 13.5 and that shouldn't be surprising to anyone after last week's performance. Yes, the Week 6 matchup against Miami was as good as it gets, but the Colts are not an elite rush defense and this is a pretty soft line. Per Jacob Gibbs, Vidal averaged more yards after contact than all RBs other than Jonathan Taylor in Week 6 and the Colts are also a bottom five team in yards allowed before contact. Great recipe for Kimani Vidal to keep it going.

Drake Maye has been lights out this year and gets a great matchup against the Titans on Sunday. At first glance, it may seem like a dream matchup for the Patriots running backs, but this team simply can't run the ball. I like Maye to hit on his typical deep shots, but I think he's also likely to throw the ball in the red and green zone. There may be some wind issues, but I don't think they will be dramatic enough for me to be off of this. The Patriots are implied for 24+ points and I think we'll see at least 14 of those via the air attack.

As expected, Puka Nacua has been officially ruled out against the Jaguars. That's a lot of vacated targets to go around and I expect a good number of those targets to go to Jordan Whittington. The Rams are expected to pass the ball on this secondary as Stafford is projected for nearly 250 yards and 22 completions. There's history with Whittington being on the field and getting work when Nacua has been out and I think that history repeats itself. Expect Tutu Atwell to get plenty of work downfield (along with Davante Adams) and expect Whittington to work the short and medium area and secure some reliable targets.

Rodgers has been under this attempt line in 5 of 6 games (important to note that 2 of those games he was right at 30 attempts, but in 2 other games he didn't surpass 23 attempts). I think the game script and short week is in favor of the Steelers leaning on the run game. Rodgers is likely get the short area passing game going, and while I think he'll be reasonably efficient against a porous defense, I don't foresee a lot of passing volume. You can find this number at BetMGM. The 29.5 is playable but I'm more comfortable at this 30.5 number.

Fanduel has this at -2.5, but I don't mind playing the -3 (-105) or (-110) where most books have this. I was first alerted to this play by Emory Hunt and upon further review, I'd like to jump in. Delaware has a more versatile attack than the run heavy Gamecocks and Delaware is also decent enough defending the run. Add in that they're coming off a bye, have faced some tougher teams (i.e. - Colorado) and are slowly getting healthier on offense and I think it's a good recipe for the Blue Hens to cover on the road.

This is a pretty high total when you consider that JCM hasn't commanded the majority of the RB touches through 5 weeks, but it looks like that officially changed last week. JCM was fantastic against the Chargers and had plenty of explosive runs en route to 111 yards on 14 carries. Now he gets a Bears defense allowing a staggering 6+ YPC. I'm expecting at least 12 carries this week and that should be more than enough (notable that Chris Rodriguez may not play for Washington).

Rome Odunze is averaging approximately 9 targets per game and he gets a matchup againt a Commanders team that can give up a lot of splash plays on the back end. I do worry about Caleb Williams efficiency against the pass rush, but I also think that he'll be able to hit his primary read for some chunk gains against man coverage, which the Commanders frequently play. It's possible that there are more pass catchers incorporated coming out of the bye, but Rome Odunze is the clear favorite of Caleb and that won't change on Monday night. If Washington takes command in this one early, a negative game script also helps this prop.

Fanduel is hanging a pretty high number on a pretty bad quarterback. The good news for Geno Smith is that he won't be leaned on a ton as it'll likely be the Ashton Jeanty show in a neutral/positive game script against maybe the worst team in the NFL. That game script likely means that we won't see a ton of volume from Geno (notable that Bowers is likely to sit out this week). Look for both teams to run clock via the run game and try and get to the 4th quarter with a chance to win. You can play this as low as 225.5.

Too much talent and too good of an expected game script to have a receiving line south of 50 yards. Harrison has surpassed this line in each of his last two games. His targets per game are lower than I'd like, but a lot of that has been game script related. In trailing game scripts (Seattle) he was peppered with 10 targerts. I expect a trailing game script here against an average secondary. If you're narrative shopping, this is where Dad played and "Junior" has already been asked about that and embraced it. Note that if Jacoby Brissett starts I do not consider that a downgragde as it relates to this prop.

Neither of these teams are particularly explosive and on a short week, in division, I see both teams trying to establish the run early. The good news for the Eagles and the Giants is that they should be able to get some traction with the rushing attack and that should keep the clock moving through the first half (both rush offenses have been inefficient but both rush defenses are allowing success). I see a lot of punts and/or long drives that chew up clock in this one, particularly while the game is close.

This is a high completion number, but it's warranted given how much Patrick Mahomes is expected to pepper the short area. The running game is likely to be relatively non-existent and the passing game will work as an extension of the run game. The Jaguars pass defense is not imposing and that same defense has a problem getting off the field on third downs. Look for Mahomes to have some extended drives with handfuls of completions per drive to eclipse this number.

Jake Browning hasn't been blessed with the best matchups, and at first glance, a matchup against Detroit doesn't look that much better. However, Browning will be at home on Sunday and gets a Lions defense that is very banged up in the secondary. It was already a defense that was giving up a fair amount in terms of yards per pass attempt, but with the latest injuries, I expect that to increase. This is a get right spot for the Bengal passing game in a game script that will likely suit high passing volume for the Bengals.

Fanduel is holding the line here at 86.5 while other books have slowly crept up to 90+. As mentioned on the NFL Prop show, there's no reason not to like JT against a Raiders team with a struggling defense and a struggling success rate against the run. Add all the JT volume and a great game script and this has all the makings of going over this high rush yard total. Reminder that JTs under came in on the road against the Rams last week, but that was mostly due to offensive penalties. Now he's at home against a much lesser opponent.

This line is over at BetMGM and it's the best number by a pretty good margin (I'm ok playing it up to 63.5). I don't usually like attaching receiver overs to bad quarterbacks, but I don't mind leaning on Bryce Young's best receiver when the Panthers are at home. McMillan's target volume is insane and I expect his efficiency to get better against a Dolphins defense that allows a lot to perimiter receivers.