I took McMillan's receiving yards prop, and also played receptions. McMillan has seen at least 8 targets in each of his first 4 NFL games. I expect Bryce Young to look for him aggressively against a weak Dolphins secondary, that will again be without CB Storm Duck. Carolina took an ugly 42-13 blowout loss to the Patriots last week, so I expect a much better effort in this game that features plenty of Tet McMillan.

My esteemed colleague Sia Nejad got a better number on this prop, but I'm still ok with playing it here. McMillan went over this line in Weeks 1 & 2, and fell just short of it in a blowout loss to the Patriots. Carolina will look to bounce back against a Dolphins team that ranks 32nd in defensive success rate. McMillan seems to be a legit rookie talent, who has seen 8+ targets from Bryce Young in each game thus far. McMillan has also hauled in a 20+ yard catch in every game. Against the best WR1's they've faced thus far, Miami gave up 80 receiving yards to Colts WR Michael Pittman, and 82 to Jets WR Garrett Wilson. McMillan should see 8-12 targets here.

Ja'Tavion Sanders is out, which should mean extra opportunities for Tommy Tremble. The 25-year-old Notre Dame product is coming off a five-catch game (eight targets) in New England. He's facing a Miami defense that's given up the seventh-most receptions to opposing tight ends (6.0 per game).

The Miami Dolphins picked up an important win on Monday against a winless New York Jets team. They utilized having the extra rest advantage over New York. Now they have to travel on the road and face a Carolina team eager to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week against the Patriots. Take Carolina where the Panthers only home game this year was a shutout 30-0 win.

This line is over at BetMGM and it's the best number by a pretty good margin (I'm ok playing it up to 63.5). I don't usually like attaching receiver overs to bad quarterbacks, but I don't mind leaning on Bryce Young's best receiver when the Panthers are at home. McMillan's target volume is insane and I expect his efficiency to get better against a Dolphins defense that allows a lot to perimiter receivers.

When you look for silver linings from Monday night's Dolphins/Jets game, one of the major ones was the fact that they found their run game. Combining with their defense showing life and an ability to fly around the football, it gives me confidence in them being able to go on the road and take care of business vs Carolina.

With Panthers No. 1 tailback Chuba Hubbard out, someone has to tote the rock near the goal line -- assuming the Cats get there -- and that should be primary No. 2 Rico Dowdle, who does have a TD on the year. That Miami defense is on a short week and among the worst in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 158.0 yards and 1.25 rush TDs per so far.

The Dolphins as a road favorite? Need I say more? Yes, I believe the Panthers win this outright and they are also an excellent 6-point teaser candidate to pair with the Ravens. They apply to the same situation as the Ravens too - 1-3 teams off a loss, facing a team off a win, cover the number over 60% of the time. This is because of the perception in the market. The 1-3 team off a loss is likely being discounted versus a team off a win that is being propped up too much. It makes sense as to why the team off the loss tends to get the job done due to the over-adjustment in the line.

Tyreek Hill's injury won't impact pass to rush ratio. If anything, the % of passes vs rushes could increase if teams stop the run because they are not stretched vertically by Hill. The heavy reliance on Jonnu Smith last year and Darren Waller now will translate to conversions on 3rd and 7 that they couldn't get to start the season. When you add in the high number of 'glorified handoffs' that go down as pass attempts you should see over 31.5 pass attempts which may only be 2-2 this season, but was 10-3 last season when Tua had a great receiving TE.

The Dolphins are the third-worst defense in terms of yards per play allowed (6.3), and they're traveling on a short week. They also won't have Tyreek Hill, who was a huge factor in Miami's first win Monday night. The Panthers are 0-3 on the road but at home they whipped Atlanta 30-0. Following Carolina's embarrassing performance in New England, players and coaches know jobs are on the line Sunday in Charlotte. Look for an all-in performance from Dave Canales' team as they cover and likely win outright.

The Dolphins suffered a brutal loss Monday with Tyreek Hill's injury, and I'm not sure they should be road favorites against almost any team right now. The defense is a mess, ranking last in points per drive and percentage of drives ending in a score, and it took three lost fumbles by the Jets to keep their scoring in check Monday. The downgrade from Hill to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is severe, and I don't know how much we can count on Darren Waller week to week. I like Carolina to get enough stops to earn a win while moving the ball consistently against this woeful defense.

It's early in the week for a Sunday anytime TD bet but De'Von Achane at this price is too good to pass up considering his usage and the matchup here. Carolina just gave up rushing touchdowns to three different players and have surrendered a touchdown to running backs in three of four games this year. Achane gets gobs of touches and should easily find the end zone in Charlotte on Sunday. This should be -150 or lower, honestly.