The Bengals have given us no reason to believe they will be competitive Sunday afternoon. That's not to suggest Cincinnati lacks talent, but its poorly coached, and Jake Browning has not stepped up the way I expected. Detroit has proven it can be a juggernaut in such situations, and it's won its last three games by an average of 21 points. The Lions are 11-2 ATS as road favorites over the last two-plus seasons with huge positional advantages on the field and sideline. Don't mind paying the price (-120) to get under 10 as I don't like double-digit spreads and 7% of NFL games land on that number (value: -117).

Let's roll our winnings on the other Ohio NFL team this morning from London (thank you hook) into this one. Just don't think Cincinnati can look near as bad as it did Week 4 -- even if it is on a short week. Jake Browning has much better home splits in his limited starts career. Lions cornerback D.J. Reed is out. Reed was the team's biggest free-agent addition in the offseason, brought in to handle No. 1 receivers like Cincy's Ja'Marr Chase. Left tackle Taylor Decker is also likely out. That Detroit offense usually is a lot different outdoors, although it's a nice day in southern Ohio. Cincy is pretty healthy other than obviously at QB.

No reason to get crazy here with a full position on a reeling Bengals side but this price is getting out of control. The Bengals have now been flattened in back to back weeks as they welcome in the Lions as a double digit underdog. Detroit isn't the same offense outdoors as they are in their own building and don't look now but the Lions have a massive showdown on deck with the Chiefs. Again, backing the Bengals isn't for the feint of heart but this situations warrants a value bet north of 10.

Detroit has won and covered big in three straight. On Monday, we saw a very unmotivated Bengals team get blown out by the Broncos 28-3. I'm not going to overthink this, Detroit should win big on Sunday.

The Lions have returned to being the top scoring offense in football, and they've done it without Goff throwing a bunch of passes. He's attempted 28, 28 and 27 passes in his last three games, two comfortable Lions wins. This is expected to be more of the same with the Lions double-digit favorites, and with the Bengals giving up 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games since Joe Burrow's injury, the Lions can put this game in the hands of their star running backs. I'd expect Goff finishes in the 25-28 attempts range.

After only getting nine touches last week against a tough Browns' rush defense, I believe Montgomery will get more usage on Sunday for multiple reasons. First, the Lions are 10.5-point favorites against the struggling Bengals. This is a game where Montgomery should get more usage. Montgomery had 12-15 touches in the first three games, and I think he'll see similar usage against a bad Bengals' run defense. Finally, David Montgomery is from Cincinnati and has never played an NFL game in his hometown. His family will be there, including his sister, who was in a car accident that left her paralyzed from the neck down. She'll be in attendance to see him play. I believe Montgomery will find the endzone in an emotional game.

No one team in the NFL does a greater job than the Detroit Lions in beating teams who don't know how to punch back. This defense has started to find its mojo and it feels like their Week 1 loss vs the Packers was a lifetime ago. After last week's game vs the Broncos, the Bengals offense does not inspire any confidence in covering this spread.

Jake Browning hasn't been blessed with the best matchups, and at first glance, a matchup against Detroit doesn't look that much better. However, Browning will be at home on Sunday and gets a Lions defense that is very banged up in the secondary. It was already a defense that was giving up a fair amount in terms of yards per pass attempt, but with the latest injuries, I expect that to increase. This is a get right spot for the Bengal passing game in a game script that will likely suit high passing volume for the Bengals.

Montgomery is poised for a big game, as he’ll be playing in his hometown of Cincinnati for the first time. Montgomery will have his family watching in the crowd, and has spoken in interviews about how much it will mean to him. A players coach like Dan Campbell surely knows the significance, and will likely try to feed Montgomery a score. After running for just 12 yards on 9 carries last week against the Browns, I expect a big bounce back performance in this “homecoming” spot against a bad Bengals defense. I like Montgomery to find the end zone, and to go over his rush yards total.

Lions RB David Montgomery is excited to be playing for the first time in his hometown of Cincinnati. Montgomery grew up rooting for the Bengals, but is likely to be their nemesis in this matchup. The Bengals have allowed 150+ rushing yards to opposing RB's in consecutive weeks. Montgomery has spoken in interviews about his sister (who was tragically paralyzed in a car accident) coming to watch him play this Sunday. He will have all the motivation in the world to go off for a big game, and I expect a player's coach like Dan Campbell to feed him the rock, knowing what this game means to him. I like Monty to surpass this rushing yards total, and to score against Cincy.

This is a massive spread for a road team to cover, but it's hard to argue with it after the Bengals were just outgained by 353 yards. The defense was on the field for 80 plays in that matchup and has one less day of rest, so it's hard to see how they slow down a Lions offense that has averaged more than 40 points in the last three weeks. I love the first-half Lions team total Over 16.5 but think the full-game number should be safe as well.

Even with the Lions missing starting corner D.J. Reed, this line jumped following the Bengals' no-show in Denver. I like it at 10 or less, preferably a 9.5 if you can find it. The Lions have not allowed a sack during their three-game win streak. To envision the kind of day Jared Goff is going to have, think about how badly Bo Nix played in his first three games before throwing for 329 yards and two TDs against Cincinnati. The Bengals won't have much success on the ground vs. a Lions team allowing 3.8 yards per carry. That will put it all on Jake Browning. He has yet to post a 70 passer rating in his three outings this season.