Jonathan Taylor should be the difference against an opponent in the Raiders that has struggled to stop the run all season. The Colts are not a team that should regularly be favored by this many points against any opponent, but Las Vegas has struggled running (outside of last week) and just lost a starting tackle -- going up against a talented Indianapolis run defense. Oh yeah, the Raiders are also down their top receiving threat in Brock Bowers, and the defense has been inconsistent -- at best -- this campaign. Conversely, the Colts have one of the NFL's most efficient offenses with a variety of weapons that should get them this cover.

Both teams are off a loss last week and the Colts finally return home where Daniel Jones has thrived. Two starts is a small sample size for Jones but playing at home again should be able to establish the run as Las Vegas have had their issues in stopping it. The Colts committed their first three turnovers of the season last season and should clean that up as Las Vegas is –4 in the turnover department.

There have been some 6.5s floating about the marketplace but the Colts tempt regardless. Indy is very unfortunate not to be 4-0, right now after a galling loss to the Rams last week; poorly-timed penalties wrecked a late drive that could have given the Colts the win before Tutu Atwell hauled in that long bomb from Matthew Stafford to win the game for LA inside of the last two minutes. Though the Raiders finally got Ashton Jeanty established last week, we still don't much like the look of the Las Vegas offense, especially as Geno Smith never sees to be able to make easy throws downfield as his wideouts aren't creating separation. It's a main reason the Raiders have lost three straight. Play Colts

Ashton Jeanty is coming off a breakout performance of 138 yards, but that game was competitive and this figures to be less so. He hasn't had more than 63 yards in any of his previous three games, and in Indy's two blowout wins the primary back didn't get close to this number. With the Raiders dealing with offensive line issues, I expect this will end up being around a 60-yard day for the rookie back.

Tyler Warren punched in his first NFL touchdown last week, but it was a rushing touchdown. I believe with the usage Warren is getting. He has a 22.7% target share and has a good matchup against the Raiders' defense on Sunday. I think he gets his first NFL receiving touchdown, but it could be either a rushing or receiving touchdown to cash this bet.

Fanduel is holding the line here at 86.5 while other books have slowly crept up to 90+. As mentioned on the NFL Prop show, there's no reason not to like JT against a Raiders team with a struggling defense and a struggling success rate against the run. Add all the JT volume and a great game script and this has all the makings of going over this high rush yard total. Reminder that JTs under came in on the road against the Rams last week, but that was mostly due to offensive penalties. Now he's at home against a much lesser opponent.

Raiders safety Jeremy Chinn hasn't put up big numbers this season, though he did make seven combined stops last week versus the Bears. This is a great matchup for safeties, however, and specifically Chinn. No Raiders has played more snaps than Chinn's 255, and he's the team's highest-graded run defender (per PFF). Look for him to rack up at least seven combined stops Sunday.

I'm going to hop on this number while it's still available at FanDuel. Brock Bowers isn't practicing Friday, which makes me think he'll miss this game. That would be a huge blow for a Raiders offense that has lacked consistency in the passing game, finding most of its success on the ground last week despite facing a Bears secondary rife with injuries. The Kolton Miller injury is massive for Vegas, and I don't expect many points from the Raiders. Indy is second in points per drive while averaging 6.5 yards per play, so this figures to be a rout.

Our projected rushing total is 24. I know this is not the most statistically sound analysis but he seems to be rushing for 25ish yards every other game (WK1 had 26, WK2 had 2, WK3 had 27, WK4 had -1). We are getting a line that is more based on his average as opposed to his most likely result which is 20+ yards as long as his running is a part of the game plan. The Over was 9-3 in 2024 with a near 23 average and that's where he will hopefully be vs a Raiders team that has allowed around a full yard more per carry on the road than at home since last season.