Henderson is the Pats’ most explosive running back by far, and he cleared this prop total in the first three games before falling short in last week’s blowout win. This potential game script should work in his favor. Henderson could eclipse this in a couple catches.

The 7 and the hook feels like it’s books trying to dissuade Bills backers. I think they can win this game by double digits. Josh Allen is 10-4 ATS when playing as a favorite of -7.5 to -10.5, so this is his sweet spot as a big fave. Buffalo has been dominant at home, and this Patriots defense has been weakest in the secondary. I expect Allen to carve them up and lead the Bills to a win by multiple scores.

Drake Maye is over this pass attempts total in 2/4 games so far this season. The Patriots were playing from behind for a good portion of both of those games, in which he had 46 & 37 attempts. New England are +7.5 underdogs in this matchup against the 4-0 Bills, and Maye will likely need to go score for score with Josh Allen in Primetime if the Pats have a chance. I like him to go well over this total.

Stefon Diggs returns to Buffalo Sunday night, and while you can play the narrative card, I like Stefon Diggs to exceed his receiving line just based on the matchup and usage. Diggs finally broke out in Week 4 with six receptions for 101 receiving yards, even with limited pass attempts for QB Drake Maye due to a blowout over the Carolina Panthers. Diggs was playing 81% of Maye's dropbacks in Week 4, compared to 55% to start the season. I look for Diggs to build on his usage and take advantage of a good matchup against the Bills' secondary to go over his receiving line Sunday night.

Drake Maye is quietly having a very strong season and is coming off a highly efficient performance against Carolina that saw him post an impressive 155.6 QB Rating. He’ll face a stiffer test against Buffalo on SNF, however this game had a healthy 49.5 point total and the Patriots are 8.5 point underdogs. I was also encouraged by the Patriots willingness to keep throwing last week despite leading by 28-6 at halftime. I expect that theme to continue as Maye is going to try to keep up with Josh Allen and company.