I'm fine laying the number on Pats -7 despite the Titans being in a Dead Cat Bounce spot, because the Revenge Game factor for Mike Vrabel is way too high here. But I'm going to go ahead and jump on this team total now, as it should climb given the Patriots recent production on offense. I think you could alt this up to like 35 honestly ... I wouldn't be surprised at all if Mike Vrabel tried to drop a 50 burger on the team that fired him less than two years ago. The Titans might have done Brian Callahan a favor letting him go a week early before his predecessor came to town.

We're doubling down on the Patriots this week. I think they're going to score and score often and I don't think the Titans can keep up with them. Tennessee actually ranks pretty decent in recent YPP (5.1 over their last three) but the Pats are coming to town with one thing in mind: Revenge. Tennessee fired Pats coach Mike Vrabel and he will put up 50 points on the Titans if it's viable to do so. Tennessee should be energized by a coaching change, but that doesn't outweigh Vrabel's desire to blow this team out. Getting in before it crosses the key number.

Jumping all over the Chiefs now, even though it's a huge number at the open. Rashee Rice is back and that should spark an offense that started finding its groove Sunday night against the Lions. None of the Chiefs losses are "bad" per se and they're just one game back of the lead in the AFC West with a questionable Raiders team coming to town. If they slow down Ashton Jeanty and force Geno Smith to throw, they'll get some short fields and I don't think Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes will take their foot off the gas in this one. Fully expect this number to keep climbing throughout the week.

Judkins is going to be the bellcow for the Browns in a bad weather game against the worst defense in football. The market is keenly aware: his yardage number has steamed up to a ridiculous 95.5 over/under. That's like a peak CMC/Saquon digit and it's wild to see. But the Dolphins are that bad against the run, giving up the most yards/game in the NFL along with 5.6 yards per attempt. This anytime touchdown price hasn't caught up to the yardage prop yet, especially considering how willing the Browns are to feed Judkins at the goal line.

The Rams are likely to be without Puka Nakua for their Sunday morning matchup against the Jaguars, setting the stage for Davante Adams to have his first explosion game of the season. The Jaguars will have to worry about stopping Kyren Williams and it should let Matthew Stafford and Adams cook. I gave this out at +105 in my "Bet It Now" column on CBS Tuesday -- you can still use a FD 30% international boost to get it up to +105 from the current number if you want a plus number. Adams leads the NFL in red zone targets (12) but has just two catches (both TDs) and is due for some positive regression.

Washington has seen more than 85% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks thanks to his blocking helping the Steelers run game and as a result his usage as a receiver has gone way up, catching three passes each of the last two weeks. The matchup against the Bengals is obviously a good one and if Washington is out there that much, he's going to get some looks from Aaron Rodgers

The Bengals lost again last week against the Packers, but they at least covered. And, more importantly, for betting props on Thursday night, we saw some life out of the passing attack. Ja'Marr Chase flirted with 100 yards and Tee Higgins caught five balls on eight targets for 62 yards. He's getting more downfield looks with Flacco and has a really strong history against the Steelers. We're not asking for the moon here just 50 yards (please note this number is creeping up everywhere, so make sure and shop around).

We already have D.K. Metcalf ATD in tow and while the Steelers defense is a bigger problem than the Bengals, I would be remiss if I didn't bet Chase at this price too. FanDuel is best by a good 10 cents and I wouldn't be shocked if this dipped a little leading up to the game. Chase is usually around -125 to score in a prime time game, because he's, you know, Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals offensive struggles have given us rare value on a guy who just got 10 catches on 12 targets for 94 yards and a score against a strong Packers defense. It's pretty much a principle play at this number.

D.K. Metcalf's scored in four straight games so why not make it five? The touchdown streak isn't predictive, per se, but it does show he's *the guy* for Aaron Rodgers and now he gets a defense that's been shredded by opposing offense on a short week. This price feels pretty good relative to the rest of the market and Metcalf's recent production (nine catches on 14 targets, 221 yards and two scores in the last two games) so we're jumping on it now.

I fully expect the Giants to be competitive in this game and I think they'll do it by letting Jaxson Dart run and having him throw quick hitters out of the backfield, including some passes to the surprisingly deft Skattebo. And if the Giants aren't competitive, Skattebo will be in there to take some dumpoffs and get us to more than three receptions.

Brown has been the subject of much talk in Philly almost all season after he hasn't produced a ton, with the Eagles focusing so heavily on the run game and missing on explosive plays. He was shut down last week by Patrick Surtain, but the Giants don't offer the same ability to limit an big receiver and we should see Brown get a couple deep looks. He's capable of cashing this one one play with his speed and power.

The Giants are staring down the barrel of maybe a Saquon Barkley revenge game, but certainly dealing with an A.J. Brown squeaky wheel game. If both happen on Thursday, the G Men could be in trouble. But the Eagles are missing Jalen Carter for this one, as was just confirmed, and that's massive for the Eagles defense. Jaxson Dart can do enough to keep them in this game at home.

We should have doubled down on the McCaffrey touchdown train with a little Thursday-Sunday parlay action, but alas, we'll have to settle for just taking Luke here at a pretty good value price in a spot where Jayden Daniels is missing virtually all of his weapons. If you want to wait until Sunday, this price could drift up a little bit with natural market moves and Deebo Samuel being cleared, but I still think McCaffrey is a really good look in this spot.

I love AJ Brown more than I love most of my family members, but this is just a bad matchup, even in a squeaky wheel situation. Yeah, Brown is capable of busting off a monster catch that would wreck this, but full-time coverage from Patrick Surtain should limit what Brown can do you for you in this game. Even if he hits the over on his catches prop (4.5) he still wouldn't clear this number on his per reception yards number for the year. This should be a rockfight and not a shootout.

We've got a massive total, a team that loves to feed its bellcow down by the goal line, Williams continuing to find the end zone and a rookie in Jayden Blue who developed blisters by wearing designer Nikes on Friday. The Jets defense isn't good and the Cowboys will be forced to score because theirs is worse and Wiliams is a very good look to find the end zone once (or twice). His red zone rushing statistics are on par with the bellcow/superstar backs in this league so far this year.