We were correct last week in going against Dan Quinn the week prior to a division game. Now, I am going to be firmly planted in his camp with this being the week of a division contest. On top of Quinn's success throughout his career against familiar opponents, Offensive Coordinator, Cliff Kingsbury is also a specialist against the NFC East, going a perfect 7-0 ATS (6-1 SU) during his time as Head Coach of the Arizona Cardinals. I also like the fact that this comes off of a sloppy loss in which Washington turned the ball over three times. I believe they get it right this week and crush this awful Dallas defense.

The Carolina Panthers are a road favorite. In 2025, that screams green light and it's the guys in green that we will indeed side with. Not only is the very unfamiliar territory for the Panthers, they also fall into the scenario of home underdog that just won outright that has been thrust into the role of road favorite the very next week. We won on this a couple of weeks ago with Jacksonville outright over Kansas City. I believe the Jets get their first win of the season this Sunday. They are also a great team to pair with on a teaser, taking them up to +7.5 or better.

The Eagles have been outgained in all six of their games this season yet here they are, installed as a road favorite. The Vikings have been up and down and injured. The bye week ought to be a huge lift for them. It's a sandwich spot for Philly who lost to the Giants last week and face NY again next week. My numbers make Minnesota the favorite. I'll take the points, play a little moneyline, and also make them a teaser leg up to +7.5 or better.

Chicago will definitely be looking to make amends for a very embarrassing loss to Washington last season on a Hail Mary play after a Bears player taunted the Washington fans. The Commanders have been a bit inconsistent and much of that is due to injury. The Bears are in a learning process with a new head coach and the bye week ought to serve that purpose well. Finally, Dan Quinn has a fantastic track record in division games. He has a very poor record in the game prior to a division game. I'll ride that history here with the Commanders traveling to Dallas next week.

Was a huge win over the Bills, on the road, in division, enough to elevate the New England Patriots into the status of road favorite, laying more than a field goal? I think not. This will be the first of two straight road games for NE and they'll be favored in each. I think this is a good spot to go against them off of the biggest win of their season where the point spread is probably a bit inflated. New Orleans is playing very hard and they are continuing to improve. The masses are in love with the Patriots off their big win. I made the line 3. Getting the hook here is a big deal. I believe it closes at a flat 3.

This will be the second straight week that the Dallas Cowboys are in the role of road favorite. They will face a young, hungry, Panthers team that can run the ball on this porous Dallas defense. We know points will be scored and I believe Carolina can absolutely hang around. Finally, the Cowboys have a big division contest on deck, hosting the Washington Commanders. This looks like a great flat spot in the schedule to fade the favorite. Over the summer, this line was Cowboys -1.5. Has that much changed that it is now 3?

Let's not get too excited about the Kansas City Chiefs because they beat Baltimore last week but it looks like that is exactly what the market has done, installing them as a road favorite of more than a field goal. I made the number 2.5, so I believe getting better than 3 is a very good deal. I would not be surprised at all if Jacksonville wins outright. It has been a very profitable situation over the years to go against a road favorite after they won outright as a home underdog the week before. The market inflates this team too much and we get line value with the home dog. Go Jaguars.

The Dolphins as a road favorite? Need I say more? Yes, I believe the Panthers win this outright and they are also an excellent 6-point teaser candidate to pair with the Ravens. They apply to the same situation as the Ravens too - 1-3 teams off a loss, facing a team off a win, cover the number over 60% of the time. This is because of the perception in the market. The 1-3 team off a loss is likely being discounted versus a team off a win that is being propped up too much. It makes sense as to why the team off the loss tends to get the job done due to the over-adjustment in the line.

This has to be an all out effort on the part of the Ravens. They're 1-3 and will likely be without Lamar Jackson. I expect a "rally the troops" type resurgent group effort here that manhandles the Texans. In addition, 1-3 teams off a loss, facing a team off a win, cover over 60% of the time going all the way back to 1980. Using the Ravens in a 6-point teaser is a great way to go as well. I believe they win the game outright.

I'm surprised to see 4.5 available as I like Cleveland at +3.5 too - anything better than a field goal. For the second straight week, I am happy to fade Carson Wentz. Dillon Gabriel will face a tough defense in his first NFL start but the offense can't be any worse than it has been. The Browns have the best defense in the league and I believe they keep this game close and will have an excellent shot to win it outright.

This is a buy low, sell high situation for me. The Raiders were in an awful spot before the game even kicked off last week in Washington, off a short week, traveling east, against a team on extra rest playing at home. Now they return home against a bad run defense in Chicago where their rookie, Ashton Jeanty, can get rolling. The Bears looked great in a win at home over Dallas but who doesn't that Dallas defense make look good? Chicago is not a great team, they are injured, and they are even worse on the road. It is telling that LV is favored. Pete Carroll showed that he can handle Ben Johnson in beating Detroit in overtime 37-31 back in 2023 with Seattle.

The Vikings were fortunate to roll out Carson Wentz last week against an awful Bengals defense. The Steelers have had trouble stopping the run but the Vikings rushing attack is not the same without Aaron Jones - and I am not expecting Carson Wentz to put two big games together in a row. He was also the beneficiary of turnovers last week, setting up a walk in the park for Minnesota. This will all be different. Travel, opponent, environment. I will take the points with the better quarterback.

Home teams have an edge to begin with in these short week contests. On top of this, Arizona is looking to avenge being swept by their division foes last season. Over the summer, the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites. Because of what people have seen out of the Seahawks the last two weeks, they have flipped to the favorite. They beat the Steelers who can't stop the run and the beat the Saints who can't do much of anything. Now feeling a bit fat and happy, Seattle goes on the road, in division, and is laying points? No thanks. Arizona wins this outright.

Public perception shapes a lot of what we are facing in Week 3. The Saints appear to be awful and Seattle looks like a team that just went out and dominated the Steelers on the road. The fact is, Seattle is not great. Sam Darnold still turns the ball over and New Orleans is better than many may think. I made this number Seattle -4. I believe getting better than a full touchdown is plenty. Home Field Advantage is no longer a thing in Seattle - and 0-2 teams vs 1-1 teams in Week 3 over the last 10 years, cover the number over 70% of the time.

Baker Mayfield's stock has soared after pulling off a 4th quarter comeback on Monday in Houston. Now they are at home on a short week, hosting an unfamiliar opponent with a date with the Eagles on deck. Over the last 10 seasons, 0-2 teams vs teams with at least one win, cover the number over 60% of the time. And it makes sense because public perception is often skewed so early in the season. Justin Fields has been ruled out for this game yet the line has dipped in many places. I made this number Buccaneers -5. I'll gladly take the full seven points or better.