The Browns are coming off a blowout win against the Dolphins ...

It's the Aaron Rodgers revenge game as he faces the Packers for the first time ...

The Texans looked fantastic in their two games before the bye, but both came against broken offenses that couldn't move the ball. The Seahawks have been anything but, ranking first in yards per play with an elite passing attack that has a chance to beat Houston's pass defense in a strength vs. strength matchup. The major edge is on the other side of the ball, as the Seahawks also have an elite defense while the Texans offense looked awful prior to its uncompetitive matchups. I want to jump on this while it's still -3 at DraftKings, but I will also be likely to play the Texans team total Under.

The Texans had two blowout wins prior to their bye, but both were against awful teams, and one defense was brutalized by injury. The Seahawks have been an excellent defense this season and their talented front matches up well against Houston's poor offensive line. The Texans defense is the best Seattle has faced since a rough Week 1 outing against the 49ers, and while the Seahawks look stronger now, I don't see them running up the score against a Texans defense that ranks third in EPA per play. This should be similar to Seattle's 20-12 win last week.

The Buccaneers are dealing with a number of injuries at receiver, but they'll likely have Mike Evans back and could even have Emeka Egbuka available. The situation is certainly better than that of the Lions, who will be without two starting corners and two starting safeties. That's a matchup where the MVP front-runner should excel throwing the ball to just about anyone, and I expect Mayfield to deliver his fourth straight game with 250+ passing yards. Even better, the spread suggests the Bucs will be in chase mode and throwing in the second half. I'd play this up to 249.5 even if Egbuka is ruled out.

The Lions are coming off a disappointing loss in Kansas City that exposed their defensive injury issues. Patrick Mahomes got whatever he wanted through the air, and it could be a similar situation this week with potential MVP Baker Mayfield coming to town. Despite losing another receiver to injury on Sunday, Mayfield threw two long TDs and had no issue putting up points on a solid 49ers defense. With the Bucs' quality rush defense, I don't think the Lions will be able to salt away this game, and I trust Mayfield to keep his team close in the second half.

The 49ers have been walking wounded all year, with the offense scraping together a passing game on a weekly basis. They'll have to face the second-best defense in net yards per pass attempt. Don't expect the 49ers' 32nd-ranked run game to bail them out either. I would've still thought about playing San Francisco at home if I thought the defense could dictate this game, but with Fred Warner joining Nick Bosa on the sidelines, I don't have much hope for that unit. This will come off 3 quickly, so play it where it's available while you can. I think this should be close to pick 'em.

The Commanders are without their top three receivers on Sunday, but they still have an excellent QB going up against the defense that's allowed the most passing yards in the league. Someone is going to eat for Washington, potentially multiple players. The one I have the most confidence in is Moore, who saw a higher snap share than anyone but Deebo Samuel at the receiver position last week, and he proved a reliable weapon with 46 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. While Luke McCaffrey might be the guy to make a big play, I see Moore as the most consistent receiver for Washington in a great matchup and I expect him to get the 6-8 targets he needs to top this number.

Multiple receivers are going to have to step up into bigger roles for Washington today, but McCaffrey is one guy who is already making an impact on big plays with three TDs on the year. He's scored in three of the last four games despite only making eight catches this year, and he also has a 50-yard reception wedged in between. The Cowboys have surrendered 15 passing touchdowns, with six going at least 29 yards, so they are vulnerable to the big plays McCaffrey has made. If he's third among Washington WRs to score at your book like he is at FanDuel, he's a nice value play.

The Colts have the No. 1 scoring offense and a top-five scoring defense yet enter this game as underdogs. And there's a good reason, with key players injured on both sides of the ball. Josh Downs and Charvarius Ward are two excellent players at their positions, and while the Colts may have enough in the passing attack to remain effective, I'm not sure that's the case at corner, where Kenny Moore is coming back from an Achilles injury with the team's CB's issues, potentially too early. The return of Khalil Mack is massive for the Chargers' defense, and with it, we may be getting the better defense, passing game and home-field advantage as short favorites.

These two teams had very different Week 6s, with the Broncos struggling to beat the Jets and the Giants upsetting the Eagles. That makes this the perfect spot to play Denver with adjustments driving this line down to -7 (but it looks like no further). The Denver defense should dictate this game, and I don't see Jaxson Dart being able to get much at all in the passing attack or as a runner against this unit. The Giants defense is 29th in yards per rush, so the opportunity should be there for the Broncos to move the ball effectively on the ground to build and maintain a comfortable lead, even with their injury issues at one guard spot. This line should be north of 7.

The Pats are expected to be in positive script in this game, and yet I can't expect much from Rhamondre Stevenson. In his first game post Antonio Gibson's injury, he managed just 18 yards on 13 carries, and he's had 2.1 yards per carry or worse in half his games now. He also had no receptions on one target in that win. At some point he's going to be marginalized in the offense, and this matchup was made more difficult with T'Vondre Sweat coming off IR for Tennessee. Stevenson has topped this number just once, in a matchup with a Dolphins defense that is terrible against RBs. The Titans defense is capable of limiting him, if the gameplan or another fumble doesn't do the job.

Backing the Titans has not gone well this year or last, but this is a great spot. Brian Callahan was the worst coach ATS of the last 20 years, consistently underperforming the rating the Titans' market rating. Interim head coaches fare well in their first game following a midseason firing, going 20-13 ATS in the past 15 years, per Larry Hartstein, and in this case we have a former head coach in Mike McCoy taking over for the worst ATS coach of the century. T'Vondre Sweat is also back in the middle of the Titans defense, making it tougher for the Pats to run the ball, while the Pats defense ranks 31st in net yards per pass attempt, giving Cam Ward a chance to succeed.

The Jets are coming off a game where they had negative-10 net passing yards, the second time this season they've struggled to move the ball through the air. Fields has thrown the ball more than 27 times just once, against a Cowboys team that put up a big point total and had the Jets playing in garbage time against a terrible pass defense the whole second half. The spread says this will be a close game, and as such it would be weird for Fields to have a high-attempt performance with his only notable receiver likely sidelined. Under 26.5 is fine to play as well, but I'll take advantage of the bigger number at FanDuel.

The Eagles are at a low point after a 17-point loss to the Giants, and while that typically means a buying opportunity, I don't want any part of them in this matchup. A struggling offense now has to face the second-ranked defense in EPA per play, while the Philly corners, who just got beat up by Wan'Dale Robinson and Lil'Jordan Humphrey, may have to face Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison without Quinyon Mitchell. The Vikings are also coming off a bye with the opportunity to be much healthier. I don't think we'll have the opportunity to grab +3, so I'm jumping on the Vikings now.