Is the Wrong Team Favored... ?

Will roll our Sunday Getafe money into this Monday La Liga matchup. That is a sentence I never expected to think much less broadcast not even a year ago. Pretty lucky on Getafe considering they had two red cards. Alaves sits 12th in the table with 11 points but is plus-1 in goal differential. Valencia sits 16th with eight points and a minus-4 GD. It is winless in the past four away. Forward Toni Martinez was a fitness question for the hosts but will play. He's second on the team with two goals. Two of Alaves' three victories this term have come at home. It also won this last matchup 1-0 at home in May and is unbeaten in the past five meetings (one draw).

Real Madrid has some pretty significant injury issues led by Kylian Mbappe, although it sounds as if he will go if not perhaps 100% Sunday. Maybe Real is looking ahead to Wednesday's Champions League match vs. Juventus or even next Sunday's El Clasico. Getafe hasn't lost in three home La Liga matches yet. The Azulones (getting to use some high school Spanish!) lost 1-0 at home in this rivalry last season and really that's all we want here.

Elche are unbeaten on home soil during La Liga play this season, while Athletic Club have lost three consecutive matches on the road across all competitions. Elche have conceded just nine times in league play, tied for the second-fewest in La Liga. Given those trends, I'm backing Elche to secure a positive result at home on Sunday.

It wasn't long ago that Sevilla fans were worrying about relegation. Now they're talking about a return to Europe after a rousing 4-1 win over Barca before the international break on October 5, moving into the top half of the Liga table (7th) as a result. Sevilla has now dropped just one of its last six, and has won three of four, as wispy frontliner Isaac Romero (three goals already) is turning into a force, while veteran Alexis Sanchez, featured in past years at Barca and Inter Milan, netted in the Barca win. Meanwhile, it's not going well for Mallorca, bottom of the table with just one win in eight tries, the offense scoring less than a goal pg. Play Sevilla on ML

Atlético Madrid will be surging with confidence after winning their last 3 games. Los Rojiblancos beat Rayo Vallecano 3-2, thumped Real Madrid 5-2, and then cruised to a 5-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League on Tuesday. They should extend their winning streak when they face Celta Vigo, who are still winless after 7 games this season. Celta lost 2-1 to Elche last weekend, and they will also be tired after facing PAOK on Thursday, so Atlético Madrid should capitalize.

This game offers Real Sociedad the perfect opportunity to drag themselves out of the relegation zone. They beat Rayo Vallecano 3-1 at home last season, which should give them a psychological boost. Rayo have lost their last 3 away games, and they could also be tired from a midweek clash with Shkëndija. Real Sociedad will have all week to rest, so they'll be fresher, and they should edge this match.

We most certainly aren't used to seeing promoted sides like Elche in a Champions League qualifying place, but here Los Franjiverdes sit in 4th and quite remarkably unbeaten (though four times drawn) in seven matches. Elche is stingy; only six goals allowed, behind only Barcelona in Liga, as vet GK Matias Diluro has been patrolling the box with aplomb. Those four draws in seven, however, provide some tempting alternatives for this matchup vs. visiting and hard-trying Alaves, though without a draw price available here, we can offer the Asian Line price (at +0.3) at -119 and take our chances. Play Elche on Spread

Save a 6-0 thrashing administered by Barcelona, Valencia has been fairly competitive, wins over Getafe and Athletic in their last five, while Dutch forward Arnaut Danjumam, surplus lately at Villarreal, and the elading scorer the past two years, Hugo Duro, have each banged home three goals already. Meanwhile Girona looks like an early favorite for the drop in Liga, winless in seven, bottom of table, -13 goal differential in just seven matches. There are some bright spots on the Los Che landscape compared no almost none on Girona's, so our preference is clear. Can't bypass this big price! Play Valencia on Monday Line

Valencia enters this match unbeaten on home soil this season, recording shutout victories in their past two La Liga fixtures at Mestalla Stadium. Oviedo, meanwhile, has lost five of their six league matches and has been shutout in their last two away fixtures. Oviedo is also coming off a 3-1 setback against Barcelona on Thursday, a game in which they conceded 80% of possession, so they could be dealing with heavy legs and fatigue against Valencia.

Barca is still waiting to return to Camp Nou, but in the interim will continue to play across town at Montjuic. Which can't make visiting Real Sociedad feel too good after it was battered the last time it visited Estadi Olimpic March 2, as Barca rolled to comprehensive 4-0 romp. Comprehensive might be an understatement; the San Sebastian side had not only no shots on target, but no shots at all, compared to 10 and 33, respectively, from Barca. A slow start to the new season has been compounded by poor performance in front of goal, and no wins in three away from the Anoeta, scoring just once. Note Barca's last two Liga home wins have been by a combined 9-0. Play Barca on Spread

If draw prices are available, we might prefer that angle, but nevertheless, getting Athletic +0.5 serves something of the same purpose). This would seem a good time for Ernesto Valverde's team to make a turnaround after three straight non-winning Liga efforts that has roughly coincided with the absence of Nico Williams, who hopefully makes his return on Saturday. Even if he can't, recent history in this series has been all Athletic, losing once in the last 13 vs. Villarreal, while Valverde hasn't lost in his last eight (6 wins and 2 draws) against counterpart Marcelino. With Unai Simon in goal, Athletic can likely hold the Yellow Submarine at bay and get a result out of this visit to the Ceramica. Play Athletic on Spread

Even with my somewhat limited soccer background -- like Jim in the Office, I was on the Orange Team in second grade -- I have told myself that I will always play Over a total of 1.5 goals in a major league/competition. These two can't draw 1-1? Mallorca is the worst team in La Liga at 0-4-2 but has surrendered 11 goals, so maybe we land Over via Alaves alone. Four of Mallorca's past five matches in all competitions have had at least two goals scored. Three of Alaves past four have. Their most recent meeting in March was a 1-1 draw.

We’re used to seeing Diego Simeone’s side be extremely disciplined in the back, but Atletico Madrid have been leaking goals early this season. Atletico has conceded six goals in its past three matches across all competitions, and they’ve recorded only one clean sheet in seven matches overall. Now, Atletico will take on a Real Madrid side that is beaming with confidence after scoring two or more goals in six straight fixtures. The Madrid Derby can get chippy, but I expect we’ll see Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Girona are having a rough start to the season is the nice way to put what is happening right now. Girona are currently are sitting dead last on the LaLiga table and are one of the two sides who are yet to win a single match, alongside Mallorca. A big part of their struggles this season stem from their seemingly non existent backline. Girona has the most goals conceded six matches into the season, as we've seen a massive 16 goals conceded, which isn't helped by their only three goals scored. Espanyol are in fine form right now, and I feel as though they should be favored to win outright, even on the road. They possess the better attack, better depth, and better form.