Sheldon Keefe coaches against his former team in Toronto...

Justin Herbert averages 25.8 rushing yards per game. Most importantly, Herbert has gone over 15.5 rushing yards in four of six games this season (67% hit rate). Herbert has exceeded his rushing yards in 7 of his last nine home games, and has sailed over 15.5 rushing yards in 13 of his last 21 indoor games since 2023. He had just one rush for three yards last week. The Colts' defense has allowed quarterbacks to run, with Bo Nix gaining 20 yards and Jacoby Brissett rushing for 19 yards on only three carries. Play all the way up to 20.5 rush yards.

The Colts will play their second consecutive road game in Los Angeles (Week 4 loss) after two straight home tilts. They are currently ranked fourth in net yards per play while facing the 29th hardest schedule. In contrast, the Chargers are ranked 10th in NYPP while playing against the 17th hardest slate. Daniel Jones will have difficulty throwing against the Chargers, who rank second in opponent passer rating (73.7). The Chargers' brilliant coaching staff knows Indianapolis can't run wild if they want to win this game. The Colts have scored 71 points in their last two games and now hit the road. This is a strong system that supports the home team.

The Eagles are in the middle of a division sandwich, having played the Giants last Thursday and playing them again in Week 8. Every team will be fired up to play the defending Super Bowl champions. Minnesota has a strong home-field advantage, ranking in the top five. Kevin O'Connell has won two of three after a bye week, with the only loss by two points against Detroit last year in Minnesota. Giving offensive-minded head coaches two weeks to prepare is typically an advantage not accounted for in the line. I made this line Philadelphia -1 with a healthy J.J. McCarthy under center for Minnesota. He's good to go. Play the Vikings plus the points.

Vandebilt has two weeks to prepare for this revenge game. They have a +2.3 net yards per play while playing the 24th-hardest schedule. LSU has a +0.9 NYPP and has played the 15th-toughest schedule. Vanderbilt's offensive line has been among the SEC's best in pass protection, conceding only 0.67 sacks per game. The Tigers have struggled with points per quality drive (ranked 124th nationally), suffering from critical red zone turnovers. The Commodores have significantly improved their scoring margin, offensive efficiency, third-down performance, and defensive consistency compared to last year's squad. With an impressive 82.5 QBR (ranked 14th), Diego Pavia and company look to end their 10-game skid against LSU.

This will be the Panthers' third road game in four days. The New Jersey Devils possess the speed, defensive structure, and puck-handling skills that match up well against Florida. The road team is not at full strength, but the Devils will be energized for their home opener against the defending champions. I hoped for -130 or less, but this current line seems reasonable.

Shohei Ohtani has hit two home runs off Freddy Peralta in nine career at-bats. However, he has not hit a home run in his last six games after smashing two dingers against the Reds in the Wild Card round. Hopefully, Peralta will challenge him rather than issuing a free pass.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed three earned runs and did not get out of the first inning during a start in Milwaukee on July 7th. The Brewers can draw confidence from their previous success, even if the sample size is small. Freddy Peralta has limited the Dodgers to a .293 xwOBA in 154 plate appearances. He has been more effective at home with a 1.77 ERA compared to a 3.71 ERA on the road this season. I like the Brewers to win at plus money.

Blake Snell has made just one career pitching appearance in Milwaukee, specifically at Miller Park (now known as American Family Field). That game occurred on May 24, 2021, while he was with the Padres. In that outing, Snell pitched 3.2 innings and allowed five earned runs, which included two home runs. That's not a predictive stat, but it's been over four years since he's pitched there. The Brewers have not named a starting pitcher as of noon ET, making it challenging for the Dodgers to know whom to study on tape. Take the Brew Crew on the run line.

Atlanta allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 39 yards on five carries in Week 1. In fact, the Falcons' defense, while statistically impressive overall, has critical vulnerabilities that favor mobile quarterbacks like Josh Allen. Atlanta ranks 25th in QB rush EPA and 28th in scramble defense EPA. Allen enters Week 6 averaging 42.4 rushing yards per game. The Falcons faced Josh Allen and the Bills in Buffalo back in 2021. Allen had 15 carries for 81 yards. He will be doing everything possible to win this game after a loss. I like this prop, especially indoors, where Allen has rushed over 50 yards in four straight games dating back to last year.

Las Vegas and Tennessee are very similar teams, with the Titans having a more athletic QB. The Raiders' offense is struggling without tight end Brock Bowers, who won't return until at least Week 7. Rookie RB Ashton Jenty is ranked 12th in snap percentage but tends to wear down late in games. The Titans should be able to move the ball against the Raiders' defense, which has a low pressure rate of 32.0% when blitzing and only 21.2% on non-blitz dropbacks. Tennessee gets class relief, having played the third-hardest schedule so far, behind Philadelphia and Baltimore. The total is relatively low, where points are at a premium. Geno Smith is 11–20–2 ATS as a favorite. I like the road dog.

Alabama's road performance under head coach Kalen DeBoer has not been great. They are 2-5 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium since DeBoer took over, with four of those five losses coming against unranked opponents. The Tigers have won convincingly in all five games, including impressive victories over Kansas and South Carolina. Their bye week before this game and revenge from last year's shutout loss provide additional motivation. Quarterback Beau Pribula has been outstanding, completing 75.9% of his passes for 1,203 yards with nine touchdowns and just three interceptions. His mobility adds another dimension, contributing 121 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The Crimson Tide is coming off two consecutive physical games. Take the points in this spot.

This game represents a potential redemption opportunity for Tarik Skubal, who struggled in last year's Game 5 against Cleveland, allowing five runs in a crushing defeat. The Mariners have solved Tarik Skubal three times in four tries this season, including twice at home. His 5.91 ERA is the highest against any team with a minimum of 10 innings pitched this season. Seattle has thrived at T-Mobile Park with a 100-62 record over the past two seasons - the third-best home mark in baseball. George Kirby has always pitched better at home (3.10 ERA) than on the road (4.14) over his four-year career. Skubal is a "beast" who has logged 209.3 IP this season. Give me the home underdog in this winner-take-all affair.

The Colorado Avalanche have significantly outperformed the LA Kings in season openers over the last five years, posting an impressive 4-1 record compared to the Kings' 2-3 record. One of those wins was against the Kings at Crypto in 2023. Scott Wedgewood is 4-0 with a 1.00 GAA and .966 save percentage vs. LA over the last three years. Darcy Keumper is 1-2 with a 3.51 GAA and .871 save percentage vs. Colorado over that same time frame. The Avalanche's speed and transition game should create problems for an aging Kings roster. I like fading teams with the best home record (31-6-4) last season if they start the new season at home.

This is Washington's third road game in four weeks, involving cross-country travel to Los Angeles, which adds to their fatigue. Following a close Week 4 loss in New York, Justin Herbert and the Chargers are eager for redemption at SoFi Stadium, where they were 10–2 ATS last season when favored by seven points or fewer. Despite the Chargers being down two tackles on the offensive line, it's uncertain if the Commanders can exploit this. Washington ranks 18th in generating pressure on quarterbacks. The Chargers will control time of possession with a balanced attack, keeping Washington's offense off the field. L.A. aims to extend its home series record against Washington to 6-0. Also, Jim Harbaugh is 16-8 following a loss in his NFL coaching career.