I've been rooting for the Seattle Mariners the entire season, but I feel it's come to an end in Game 7 Monday night. I bet with money, not feelings. After Seattle won the first two games in Toronto, the Blue Jays have come alive with two wins in Seattle and a win on Sunday night at home. They won at home like they have all year, winning 54 games and losing only 27 in the regular season. It's a game seven at home. Also, they go over more times than anybody in baseball, including their last five games. I don't care about who starts the game because no pitcher on either side is hot. Blue Jays to win, lean to the over.

The early line last week for the Week 7 game between the Falcons at the 49ers had the home team -4.5, which dropped to -3.5 on Sunday before the 49ers lost at Tampa Bay, which dropped to -3 after the loss and -2.5 following the Falcons Monday night win over the Bills. Circa sportsbook currently has the 49ers -2. The Falcons have won three of the last four meetings with the 49ers, including a 2019 win at San Francisco. There's a lot to review and go over, including the No. 1 defense of the Falcons, allowing 253 yards per game. I'm betting on the new Atlanta defensive stars making the under the play.

The Blue Jays went over the total an MLB high 57% of their games, and the Mariners were second at 56.3% and both teams continued their offensive exploits in the playoffs, with each having 17 home runs when the next closest team was the Cubs with nine. But the difference between the two teams is that the Blue Jays hit an MLB high of .293 in the playoffs, while Seattle has hit .211. Toronto forces the issue at home with a 56-29 record, and they're going to use that advantage to put lots of runs on the board. I'm leaning Blue Jays and definitely over.

Ty Simpson has been a great quarterback this season and a Heisman contender for sure, completing 70.9% of his passes for 1,678 yards and 16 touchdown passes with only one interception. He's led Alabama out of difficult situations after losing the opener to Florida State. Alabama has only two turnovers this season, and they've turned over other teams 11 times for a turnover margin of +9. Alabama has lost two of the last 3 years at Tennessee, but winning at Alabama is another thing, especially this team, which beat Wisconsin, at Georgia, Vanderbilt, and at Missouri in a row the last 4 weeks. The kid is going to go for the Heisman, and Alabama wins by 10 or more.

Arizona has run into a little trouble in Big 12 play with two losses in its last three games, with its one win in between coming at home against Oklahoma State as 20.5-point favorites. With losses at home to BYU last week and at Iowa State, where they lost 39-14, it suggests to me that this road game may be difficult for Arizona. Houston is 5-1 this season, with their only loss coming against a powerhouse in Texas Tech. Both teams have covered four games each. Connor Weigman, the transfer from Texas A&M, was outstanding in his last game, completing 70% for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Weigman is going to be the difference maker for Houston at home. Houston to cover.

The Brewers won eight straight games against the Dodgers, but they're down 3-0 in the NLCS. Now the Dodgers have the best record in the National League, even though the Brewers have the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs. It appears over for the Brewers' run. The Brewers have scored three runs total against the Dodgers at their worst possible time, and in their last six games, they've scored nine runs combined. It's going to get worse for the Brewer bats on the final day. Dodgers to win.

The Brewers had beaten the Dodgers in eight consecutive games until Game 1 of the NLCS, when Blake Snell mowed them down, allowing one hit over eight innings in a 2-1 Dodgers win. Now the Brewers home-field advantage is gone. It's up to Freddy Peralta to even things up, and he's going against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whom the Brewers defeated 9-1 in July, when he didn't make it out of the first inning, allowing five runs. Peralta faced the Dodgers twice this season, and the Brewers won both games, with both going over the total. Peralta evens the series, Brewers win.

We've got the two best over teams in baseball, with Toronto hitting at 56.3% and Seattle at 55.6% of their games going over the total. So naturally, in Game 1 of the ALCS, we're going over 8 with Kevin Gausman facing Bryce Miller. I think Miller is good for giving up his regular three to four runs in his four to five innings of work, and Gausman has given up four runs in two of his last three starts. Over is the play.

Oregon has an 18-game winning streak at home, which leads the nation, and they've had two weeks to prepare for Indiana after beating Penn State 30-24 as 3.5-point underdogs. Now they get Indiana coming to Oregon, and the spread is only -7. Oregon’s home field is worth 5.5, so I look at -7 and think there's no way that Oregon is only going to be -1.5 on a neutral field. Indiana is a nice team that crushed Illinois, 63-10, and struggled at Iowa, 20-15, but this is another class, and we saw how Indiana did last year playing better classes as they lost at Ohio State and to Notre Dame in the playoffs. They are outclassed by Oregon here and are cheap.

UNLV is 5-0 on the season, and they face the worst defense in college football, with 1-4 Air Force, which allows 476 yards per game. UNLV's edge is not turning the ball over and creating turnovers, as they're No. 2 in the nation at a +8 turnover margin. UNLV scores 35 points per game, and Air Force allows 37 points per game. UNLV comes off two road wins, and their last home win was against UCLA, which now proves to be impressive, and it was in front of 36,000 fans. I expect a big crowd and a home edge, which we haven't been able to say in the past. UNLV to cover.

Missouri is averaging 45 points a game and is 5-0 on the season, covering three times. They face Alabama this week, who lost their first game at Florida State, and they’ve won and covered their last four games. They mean business, and also the fact that I've never seen Missouri beat Alabama. Missouri hasn't played anybody other than a mediocre Kansas and South Carolina this season, and they didn't cover against Massachusetts. Alabama has already won at Georgia, defeated Vanderbilt soundly, and crushed Wisconsin. Alabama also leads the nation in turnover margin at +9, turning the ball over only once. No fumbles the entire year so far. Alabama is looking to recreate past glory, and it re-establishes it against Missouri. Alabama covers.

Tarik Skubal has lost four of his last five starts, including Game 2 against the Mariners at Seattle. Here's Skubal again, this time, and he's only a -115 favorite. The last time Skubal was this cheap was August 2nd, and the Tigers beat the Phillies 7-5 as a +107 underdog against Zack Wheeler. Skubal hasn't beaten Seattle this season. The Tigers lost all three of his starts, which makes me like Skubal and the Tigers even more in this spot. He's a Cy Young pitcher, and he's going to throw some nasty stuff tonight, likely throwing over 100 pitches. He might go the distance. Tigers to win.

I want to take the Cubs in this critical Game 4, but I can't trust Matthew Boyd at this juncture of the season. June, yes; October, no. However, what I do like is the over in the game, with temperatures at 58° and the wind blowing in towards third base at 8 mph at game time. However, by the 5th or 6th inning, it's going to be blowing out to left field at 10 mph. I would take the first five innings under while taking the game over. That's the plan, just the over.

We have the wind blowing out to right field at 13 mph, 55° at the start time of 3:00 p.m. Eastern. By 4:00 p.m., the winds are expected to be closer to 15 mph, also blowing out to right field. We have a matchup between Bryce Miller pitching for the Mariners and Casey Mize for the Tigers, but the main factor for me in this wager is the wind. Mize only pitched three innings, allowing one hit and one run in his last start. Manager AJ Hinch was nervous about him pitching, had no confidence in him, and they've lost four straight behind him. The Mariners had a hit fest in their July sweep in Detroit; they like playing at Detroit.

It was July 8th when the Mariners started a road trip at Yankee Stadium, and they lost all three games, which also went over the total. As a result, on July 11th, they took their frustration out on the Tigers, whom they ended up sweeping. But in that first game with the total sitting at seven and getting plus-240 on the money line, Cal Raleigh hit two home runs and had five RBIs in the game. Tarik Skubal gave up four runs in five innings to lose the game. Two home runs for Raleigh that day, but he’s +140 to have an RBI in Game 3 with the wind blowing out at 13 mph. He had 125 RBI’s during the season.