Thomas's Picks (1 Live)
Thomas's Past Picks
I had the Rangers on Saturday and I'm going back to them here. This is a tough spot for Minnesota playing its fourth straight road game. The Wild have scored just four goals in the first three and things won't get any easier on Monday against New York's defense. I'll back the Rangers at -120 to win their second straight game.
I'm buying low on the Chargers. I know it was only Miami but the offense played better overall than it did in losses to the Commanders and Giants. It's not easy to fix injuries on the offensive line and while that will be an issue all season, I like what I saw last week. The Colts have been impressive this season, although they are just 1-1 on the road with the win coming over lowly Tennessee. I'll back the Chargers to win a close game at home.
I kept waiting for this line to go down but it's moved to -10 at a couple of books, so I will settle for 9.5 with the Irish. I like Notre Dame in this spot and expect them to pull away in the second half behind running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who I think could both top 100 yards rushing on Saturday. There isn't much value taking ND at this number but I'll swallow it because I think the Irish roll at home.
I'm going to buy low here on the Rangers after losing three straight. Defense hasn't been the issue. New York allowed just five goals in those losses and only none overall in six games this season. Montreal has won three straight, all by one goal. The Rangers have been good away from home early in the year, beating Pittsburgh and Buffalo, and losing to Toronto 2-1 in OT. I think there is some value with New York at plus money.
I like this spot for Seattle. Jacksonville is coming off the emotional win over the Chiefs and while Trevor Lawrence played well on the final drive, it overshadowed an otherwise inconsistent performance. I think it's a good matchup for a Seahawks team that already has two road wins this season. I'll back Seattle as a short dog.
I played it slow with this one because I wanted to be 100% sure Utah State QB Bryson Barnes is going to play after getting banged up two weeks ago against Vanderbilt. Barnes isn't on the injury report and multiple sources said he will start. If his status wasn't in question, Utah State would have been my first play of the week. I make the Aggies -3.5 here. Utah State fought hard versus Vandy and Texas A&M. Right now, I have them rated just below Boise State in the MWC. Two good offenses but I give the edge in QB and defense to the Aggies. Take the moneyline up to -120.
As we get deeper into the season, I'll have plays that are based purely on spot and number. This is one of them. Oregon State is 0-6 but I think the Beavers could win their first game on Saturday. This is an awful spot for Wake Forest coming off two emotional ACC games and now traveling across the country to Corvallis. Oregon State has played better at home than the road. They should have beaten Houston before losing by 3 in OT and fell to Fresno State because they literally couldn't execute a long snap. I'm selling high on Wake Forest. I make this line closer to pick. Try to get +3. Still available at BetMGM and Caesars.
I was waiting to see if this number dropped below two touchdowns and it did at 13.5, so I'll bite. I think Colorado is going to be a good fade on the road this season. In their one game away from home, the Buffs lost by 16 to Houston. I expect a similar outcome here with TCU and QB Josh Hoover returning home after blowing the game late at Arizona State last week. Look for a big bounce back game from Hoover on Saturday. Try to get -14 or less to prevent against any backdoor situations.
I am going to take a shot here with Texas. There are still a couple Longhorns -6.5 out there but I would also play this at -7. Texas hasn't played its best game yet and I like them coming off a bye against a banged up Florida team I think is about done. The Gators scored 33 points in losses to USF, LSU and Miami. I don't see them doing much against Texas' defense. Also, look for the Horns to get the running game going versus a Florida defensive line dealing with multiple injuries. Horns -7 or less.
Quarterback Jalen Kitna and UAB's offense should have a lot of success in this matchup. The Blazers have scored at least 24 points in every game this season. The two games where they scored exactly 24 came against Tennessee and Navy. However, the Navy game was impacted by two lengthy weather delays. The Blazers had 24 points at halftime but were shut out in the second half after sitting for a couple of hours. Army ranks near the bottom of CFB in both coverage and pressure. Kitna should torch them. The only scenario where I see this coming up short is if Army just goes on long drives and eats clock, but UAB's defense is so bad, I don't see that happening.
I don't know which way this line will go but I like Penn State to win the game, so I'll grab the Nittany Lions on the ML now. Oregon is a very good team but I love this spot for Penn State at home coming off a bye. Oregon QB Dante Moore will be making his first start in a hostile environment against one of CFB's top defenses. James Franklin has the horses this year. If he loses this game at home, I'll never trust him in a big game again. My advice is to take Penn State -3 or less or on the ML.
I talked about Air Force QB Liam Szarka a lot this summer. I know someone around the AF program who told me he is the next great option QB. He thought the coaching staff would likely show loyalty to Josh Johnson to start the season but Szarka would replace him at some point. Szarka started the second half vs. Boise State and looked great. He accounted for 356 total yards, three touchdowns, and led the Falcons to 23 points. You think that earns him the starting job? It's time to buy the Falcons with Szarka at QB. Bet up to -6.
I think this is a tricky game for Ohio State with the Buckeyes playing their first road game of the season. Washington is a team I was high on entering the season and I had this spot circled at +9 or better. The opener at DK is 10.5, so I'll grab it early. I'd play Washington at +10 or better. I think they stay within double-digits here.
I was waiting to see if this number hit 54.5 but it didn't happen. My guess is it goes up on Saturday, so I'll take the 55.5. Michigan State's pass defense got lit up by Boston College and the Spartans have allowed 64 points in their last two games. I do think Michigan State's offense will put up at least 20. That should be good enough with USC doing most of the heavy lifting here.