At this price, I'm on the Mariners to win game seven. George Kirby performed poorly against this lineup last time, but I don't expect they stick with him long if trouble arises. It will be all hands on deck from the Seattle bullpen and Toronto is in the same spot behind Shane Bieber. The Jays used their closer for 35 pitches (2 innings) last night so we'll see how things break out late in the game but in the end, I trust the M's bullpen more. Bieber was on the ropes in the 1st inning last time and pitching with a big lead helped him a ton. He allowed hard contact but avoided too much damage; it'll be tough to get lucky again.

It should be all hands on deck behind Bryce Miller and I don't anticipate him lasting long if he allows even a couple of baserunners. Going to Toronto forcing the Blue Jays to beat you twice to move on is far different than going across the border knowing you have to beat them back-to-back nights to stay alive. Of course anything is possible, but in the biggest game of the season, this will be a major gut check moment for the offense which has been stagnant. We're getting the better bullpen, and the team who hits last, at the better price. With their life on the line here and this being potentially the final home game of 2025, I'm backing the M's one more time.

The Mariners had last night's game go sideways in a hurry, after starting off with a walk and home run to go up 2-0 quick, they were subsequently shut down for 7+ innings until a couple meaningless home runs late in the game. The bullpen was putrid for Seattle but they didn't use any of their high leverage arms because of the score, so you have to kind of throw those numbers out. They still hold a major edge over Toronto in the bullpen and Max Scherzer allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six appearances, plus has yet to take the ball in the postseason.

The Mariners offense is rolling right now and Shane Bieber looked very gettable last time against the Yankees but also based on some of the underlying metrics. A 4.57 xERA with an average exit velocity of nearly 95 mph on his fastball, I don’t trust he keeps this lineup at bay for more than a couple innings. Runs will likely be at a premium in T-Mobile Park once again, and with how dominant the M's bullpen has been, I think the lower total plays into their hand. The bullpen has accounted for nine innings of shutout ball, with just one hit allowed in that time. Toronto has been absolutely crushed by Seattle's bevy of high caliber relievers, and I don't think it gets much easier.

Same angle here on fading Yoshinobu Yamamoto and seven strikeouts won't be an easy task if he's not able to finish six innings here. If he follows up Blake Snell with another incredible performance, I'll just have to tip my cap to him. He's allowed 10 hits in 10.2 innings this postseason, lasting just 67 pitches and four innings last time out against the Phillies. The bullpen is highly rested here and the matchup game should be in full effect here for Dave Roberts as the Dodgers try to steal both games before heading home to LA.

Blake Snell saved the bullpen last night going eight innings with 10 strikeouts in a fantastic effort which helped the Dodgers win a low scoring affair. Yoshinobu Yamamoto now starts for LA tonight and I'll bank on the Milwaukee bats being more lively here, as opposed to the measly two hits they had last night. This number opened at 17.5 before dropping to 16.5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see 15.5's at some point. Through 10.2 innings so far this postseason, Yamamoto has allowed 10 hits, three walks and a hit batsman, amounting to three earned runs. Not great but he's been incredible this year, yet at some point the Brewers bats have to break out, right? At this price, I'll play the under.

Backing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a Dodgers team that won both games in Philly before coming home to LA. It's a much tougher task to go on the road and keep your season alive, and dropping back-to-back close games at home shouldn't give the Phils much confidence. Philly turns to Aaron Nola, a familiar foe for many in this Dodgers lineup, while the Phillies lineup is relatively inexperienced against Yamamoto. The Dodgers' ace has allowed just two earned runs in his last 33+ innings and the bullpen will be fully loaded behind him. I played -1 at -130 here but that's the same as splitting your bet between the moneyline and RL so I'm posting it this way. If they win by just one we'll push.

Even with it being an elimination game for the Yankees, the bullpen for the Bronx Bombers has hit a rough patch, and I don't foresee Aaron Boone making a huge move early unless Carlos Rodon is seriously on the ropes. If that happens, we'll hope a little bit of the trouble comes from walks. In the two starts that Rodon faced Toronto earlier this year, he walked five and three batters, with just five innings covered in each. With how hot the Blue Jays' righties have been hitting, it wouldn't surprise me to see an intentional walk somewhere with two outs to get Rodon against a lefty such as Daulton Varsho.

It would not surprise me if Aaron Boone has to go to the bullpen before Max Fried can finish a full six innings tonight. We saw the scrutiny that Boone faced when he pulled Fried in the Wild Card round as he was pitching well but he had reached 100+ pitches and Boone felt the bullpen lined up better than with a lefty. Similar could be said here as we get later into the game, with the Jays having Guerrero Jr, Kirk, and Springer as tough righties in the top of the order. This will also be the 5th time this year that Fried faces this Jays lineup, so getting plus odds for under six full innings in this spot is showing some value.

Not much to like on the Reds side from the offense to the bullpen, they lack a lot vs. the Dodgers. But maybe their largest mismatch in this series is the starting pitching, and rolling out Zach Littell against these LA bats is only happening because of the Lodolo "injury." It sounds like Littell may last a few innings before Lodolo or the other bullpen arms come in to match up with these Dodgers bigger bats near the top of the order. Regardless, as Matt Snyder said this morning on Early Edge, this is really just a men against boys type series and I don't have confidence the Reds can keep it close.

In Game one of this series, I like backing Gavin Williams to cover at least five innings. He's been great for most of the year, but in September he pitched to an ERA under two, and faced the Tigers twice, covering 11 innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits. Williams walked four batters and struck out an impressive 21 with 34 whiffs. My thought here is that even if Williams gives up a few runs, burning up the bullpen early in the series in a game with Tarik Skubal on the mound is not very smart, so even with multiple runs allowed I think Williams should remain in a bit longer. And of course if he pitches well then he should be fine.

At home, I think this price has some value for the Guardians to win the game. They've won each of the last two starts that Tarik Skubal has made against them and it seems like they may have his number a little bit. That's not to say he pitched poorly against the Guardians in those two outings, going 12 innings and allowing just three runs, but he also allowed 11 hits and five walks, which is rather uncharacteristic. Skubal just completed what's likely his second consecutive Cy Young season but he may be feeling some fatigue at this point and the Guardians just have the momentum right now.

I'm going to play Elly De La Cruz to steal a game in each of the final two games of the season. He stole a base last night in Milwaukee en route to a 3-1 victory and the Reds have now tied the Mets in the Wild Card race. Elly sits just three stolen bases away from a 20/40 season, which isn't some huge milestone but it's nice to see those round numbers. Moreover, it's the motivation he should have to get into scoring position for a Reds team fighting for their playoff life. At this price I like taking a shot today and tomorrow.

There's a rather large discrepancy in the market here between Fanduel and the rest of the books on the Nico Hoerner stolen base today. He's just one away from 30 on the year, and I'll throw a quarter unit on it today and tomorrow that he steals a base at least one of the days. It would still be very profitable for us if he steals just one of the days, and if not we lose a half unit, oh well. Let's try to hit a few of these stolen base props today!

The Yankees are still fighting for the AL East crown and a guy that should be looking to take an extra base when possible is Anthony Volpe. He just one home run and two stolen bases away from a 20/20 season, but the motivation to steal should come from needing to win the division more than his own stat line. Still, that has to play at least a small role and at this price, for a guy with speed that would be asked to steal later in the game, I'm taking a shot. Volpe has just two stolen bases in September, but both came last week in that series against these same Orioles.