Last year Washington State games averaged 64 points, while North Texas Games averaged 68, so sue me to believe we are on pace for something similar here. Both teams have new quarterbacks but Washington State still aired out the ball 42 times last week and are playing a North Texas secondary that didn't look good last year and is yet to be battle tested this year. North Texas' offense also finds themselves in an air raid system too. The SportsLine Model projects 70 points.

Call it a homer pick, but I can't understand a different outcome. The public is overreacting to Georgia's performance against their first two FCS opponents, where they weren't putting up 60 points. One thing we know about Kirby Smart is he is not airing out the playbook for anyone. This will be the first time we see the Bulldogs use their shiny new transfers, as they face off a Tennessee defense without their best two cornerbacks. I think this line should still be where it opened, the steam to Tennessee after playing two weak opponents is giving us great value.

It’s no secret I am low on Miami this season, and that includes Week 1. Miami lost its top five receivers and quarterback, and I’m not ready to back the Carson Beck experience right off the bat. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr is a redshirt freshman but at least he’s been in the system and poses a dual threat. Notre Dame still has two of the best running backs in the country. In the SportsLine Model, we don’t credit Miami with much of a homefield advantage, so we have the 'Canes projected 5 points worse than most sportsbook odds would imply, and Notre Dame as 3 points better than the odds imply. We make this over a touchdown victory for the Fighting Irish.

Give me the home dog in this Pac-12 after dark throwback matchup. Nico Iamaleava is a proven starter at the Power 4 level and is at home. While Utah has promise, Utes QB Devon Dampier is coming from New Mexico. It’s worth taking a chance on the Bruins' quarterback and his higher ceiling, and rely on their defense to force a few turnovers as well. The SportsLine Model makes it a pick ‘em.

SEC teams run all over Clemson, that’s a fact. In three SEC games last year, in which Clemson went 0-3, the opponent averaged 250 rushing yards. They were -160 on the ground. The SportsLine Model has LSU projected to have the edge on the ground once again as well as the slight sack advantage. I understand the excitement around Dabo finally hitting the portal, but none of those players will impact the abysmal run defense enough to completely flip the script Week 1 of the season. I think LSU could win this outright, but I like that I can cover this spread here with a field goal loss too.

We're looking to get the passive affects of 30+ minutes of Lu Dort. He consistently plays over 30 minutes vs the Pacers and this season when he plays more than 30 minutes the over is 32-8. The Thunder need his defense vs the Pacers which leads to his solid rebounding and assist numbers in these matchups. In his last 9 against the Pacers, he is also 7-2 to this number, and has hit it 3 of 5 games this series.

OKC is now responding to the Pacers' newfound defense. SGA has found ways to draw fouls or just make the shot. The Thunder averaged 111 in their first three games vs. MIN before figuring them out and tallying 128 and 124 the final two games, not to mention they now have days to create a gameplan. The Thunder should also see natural upward regression of their 3-point shooting given how poor it was last game. The SportsLine Model has this projected at 118.

This is a Chet Holmgren series, and I am willing to buy in on Game 1. For starters, when Chet played 30+ minutes last series, he was 3-0 to this over. I don't think OKC will take any chances, no matter what the lead is, against this Pacers team notorious for coming back late. The Pacers large weakness vs the Knicks was rebounding, and I anticipate the same struggles against this OKC team. Look for Chet to record double digit rebounds on his way to covering this PRA.

I say all of this as a Pacers fan: you can't beat OKC at their own game. We loved the Pacers to beat the Knicks because of their depth and their ability to win on the road, but no one is deeper than OKC. Their turnover margin and 2-point differential is at home is enough to outweigh Indiana. This Pacers front court will struggle against OKC on the boards, considering they did so against the Knicks.

We'll take the plus money on a line below his average and his projection. We are getting buy low value because Naz Reid is averaging around 8 points per game his last 7 but he does come in with 3 straight double digit games. If anything, he could play an even larger role than usual because Julius Randle, as skilled as he is, is a turnover waiting to happen vs OKC’s defense. He averaged over 13.5 this season and while he averages less on the road, the over 9.5 rate was still a solid 29-17, 63%.

The trends are in our favor here. Not only is Pascal Siakam 10-4 over this vs the Knicks the last two seasons (including 5-2 in last season’s playoff series), he is also 8-5 to this over in his recent stretch of games. Even though he is a star player with championship pedigree, he rarely gets double teamed and is not the focal point of the defense with Halliburton being the team superstar. This over is just dependent on minutes, and I think we get enough from him in Game 1.

This line keeps steaming up and with good reason. Obviously with Jayson Tatum out, every starter for the Celtics needs to play at least 32 minutes, if not nearly 40. There are 25 to 30 FGAs that need to be re-distributed for Boston when you factor Jayson Tatum’s absence and Kristaps Porzingis’ inability to do anything...this becomes intriguing. We are getting a good buy low price because Jrue Holiday has been ultra focused on defending Jalen Brunson but he still managed 14 big points in Game 5 on just 8 FGAs. his should be a situation where Holiday is back at the 9 attempt level and he can go over 10.5 even with below average efficiency given half of his shots will be threes.

No better time to buy in on Minnesota 3-point shooting! I'm eying Julius Randle because I like his consistently high 3-point attempts through the playoffs. He was 3-2 to this over in the Lakers series, and again for what it's worth, somebody on this Timberwolves team is due to break lose from deep. Our Model has him projected for 1.7, so we're getting a solid price at essentially even money.

Dennis Schroder is the most consistent ball handler on Detroit. And that is exactly what this Pistons team needs to stay alive; Cade Cunningham had 6 turnovers alone last game. Schroder is shooting 52% from the field and 53% from 3pt range and he benefits from coming off fresh from the bench probably facing a defender who is already beginning to tire. He comes in 18-6 over 9.5, averaging 12.3 points and 28 minutes.

The Lakers are losing these games playing at their ceiling. They dropped the last two games despite shooting 40%+ from 3pt range on 40+ attempts. The Lakers are a very good home team (+4 point differential) but they are not vastly better than Minnesota is as a road team this season (+3 point differential). The Lakers’ lone win came when Minnesota shot an aberrantly poor 20% on just 25 3pt attempts. It might be the end of the road for LAL.