Lincoln Riley's USC teams are a fade for me on the road until proven otherwise. Since last year, the Trojans are 1-6 ATS on the road, with only a cover by one point vs. UCLA in 2024. Notre Dame needs style points in a big way to be considered for College Football Playoff consideration after starting out 0-2. Since then, they’ve won their last four games by a combined 119 points! I think they take care of business in a big way once again. Notre Dame 37, USC 21.

I still can't believe that Penn State, a team which made the final four in college football last season, fired James Franklin only six games in. Incredible turn of events. The Nittany Lions are the only winless team against the spread (0-6) and face an Iowa team who is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Expect Iowa's fantastic rush defense to sell out to stop Penn State's ground attack and make new QB Ethan Grunkemeyer try to beat them. He won't. Iowa 24, Penn State 13.

The Tigers are one of three teams undefeated against the spread (Texas Tech, Ohio State) and need style points as they chase the Group of 5 berth to the College Football Playoff. The Blazers just fired coach Trent Dilfer on Sunday and seem fairly lifeless as a whole this season. Interim coach Alex Mortensen won't have many answers slowing down this potent Memphis attack considering his team allows the most points per game in the country (41.3). I'll gladly lay the three touchdowns and the hook. Memphis 48, UAB 17.

The ONLY reason I'm betting this game is because of the extremely fishy line. Yes, I'm a graduate of Arizona and a long time season-ticket holder for the football team. Last week, I suffered through 5+ hours including a lengthy lightening delay only to watch my team collapse at the end vs. BYU. Against a 5-1 Houston team on Saturday, they should be at least 3.5-point underdogs as I see it. But the line has moved a lot and the Wildcats are favorites now? Somebody knows something and that means I'm all in. Arizona 26, Houston 23.

The Hawaii late-night special - it's how you build your bankroll for Sunday's NFL slate. But this time, we're not playing the home Warriors. Utah State has already faced ranked Vanderbilt and Texas A&M teams on the road and is 5-0 against the spread this season. They're battle-tested, whereas Hawaii's toughest game by far was at Arizona, and they were boat raced by my Wildcats, 40-6. Look for the Aggies to continue their successful ATS ways on the islands. Utah State 35, Hawaii 24.

To be fair, I liked the under line in the Arizona-BYU game even before I saw the weekend forecast. There is expected to be an influx of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla in Tucson this weekend, so it won't be fun for those of us who plan to be at the game. Even if it's just cloudy, I still think defenses rule at Arizona Stadium. All four Wildcats' home games have gone under as did both BYU road games. I hope I'm wrong with my actual score prediction, but at least I'm confident in the under. BYU 24, Arizona 17.

I have to continue betting USC home overs until they cost me, even against a solid Michigan defense. The average combined point total in USC's last eight home games dating back to last year is 70, including totals of 86, 79, and 76 in 2025. The Wolverines showed enough holes on defense against Nebraska a few weeks ago that I feel more confident in USC scoring 30 or more points at home as they do pretty much every time under Lincoln Riley. Fun game on tap at the L.A. Coliseum. USC 34, Michigan 30.

Until proven otherwise, I'm not an Indiana believer on the road. Last year, they had two tough road games and were blown out by both Ohio State and Notre Dame. Never mind those two teams met in the National Championship Game, it's not like the Hoosiers were all that competitive in either game. Now they go on road to a rested Oregon team, who is 22-1 at home under Dan Lanning. This Saturday, Ducks QB Dante Moore enhances his candidacy atop the Heisman Trophy race with three more touchdown passes. Oregon 35, Indiana 17.

I love this spot for Kansas State, who at 2-4 is now fighting for their postseason lives. The Wildcats' four losses are by a combined 13 points, so it's not as if they've completely stunk this season. Even though the Horned Frogs covered on a last minute play against Colorado, TCU hasn't impressed me of late. They let the Buffaloes hang in for far too long considering the talent gap. The home team pulls away late for a fairly comfortable win. Kansas State 34, TCU 24.

Did the Longhorns get caught looking ahead last week in losing at Florida? Maybe, but they certainly won't be looking past Oklahoma this week. Texas has scored at least 30 points against the Sooners in five straight matchups, and while I'm hesitant to go that far this year, I think Arch Manning plays well enough to lead his team to the win. Even if John Mateer plays for OU, I'm not sure it will be enough. Texas 27, Oklahoma 19.

There are quite a few field goals I like this week including Brandon Aubrey (DAL), Spencer Shrader (IND), and Will Reichard (MIN). But Jason Myers has the most reasonable price so he's my pick for the website. Tampa Bay has surrendered multiple field goals in 3 of 4 games and Myers has similarly kicked multiple successful three pointers in 3 of 4 contests. I'll predict that he makes three field goals in a Seattle home victory on Sunday.

Memphis is one of only two teams this season who is 5-0 against the spread (along with Utah State). As they're chasing the Group of 5 bid for the College Football Playoff, style points matter. The Tigers are averaging nearly 40 points per game on offense and face a Tulsa defense which has surrendered more than 370 yards per game. Expect a blowout at the home of the Liberty Bowl. Memphis 42, Tulsa 14.

Considering Louisville is undefeated, even against lesser competition, I'm surprised this line is only less than a touchdown. Led by a veteran quarterback in Miller Moss and an underrated defense which has allowed under 270 yards per game thus far, I think the Cardinals take control early and put the game on ice in the third quarter. The letdown for UVA coming off the Florida State win will be sizable. Louisville 37, Virginia 20.

In four games this season, Georgia State is averaging 48.0 points against, by far the worst among all FBS teams. Now they host a James Madison team who is 4-0 against the spread and averaging more than 31 points per game. I could see JMU scoring 40+, which means we'll only need two scores at most from a decent Panthers offense to push the game over.

Kansas State's three losses have been by 12 points combined in 2025. Meanwhile, Baylor is 0-2 straight up at home against FBS opponents this season. Though the teams didn't play in 2024, the Wildcats won the previous two matchups in 2022 and 2023 by a combined 62 points. One way or the other I see this game being close but I also wouldn't rule out a sprinkle on the money line for the road team. Kansas State 31, Baylor 28.