Auburn went just 1-3 at home in SEC games last season, and this is their first SEC home game this season. Despite Tennessee and Alabama's offenses having success against Georgia, we don't like Auburn's chances of putting up big numbers because Georgia's run defense was still strong in both games, and we don't trust Jackson Arnold to have a big game passing the ball. Georgia already has 1 SEC loss this season, and Kirby Smart will have them playing with urgency going forward.

This is a tough spot for Iowa State, who had to play at Cincinnati last week and now has to travel to Colorado. The change in altitude won't help, but what will help is playing a Colorado team that is banged up. We simply trust Rocco Becht in this game more than we trust Kaidon Salter.

Although this same bet didn't hit for us last week vs. Boise State, we are going back to Notre Dame team total again this weekend. Considering their 4 takeaways last week, Notre Dame likely should've scored more than 42 points against Boise State. NC State QB CJ Bailey is very talented but has struggled with INTs. We think ND should be able to turn more of their forced TOs into touchdowns in this game as well as hit on more explosive plays on offense.

SMU has yet to fully click on both sides of the ball, but we think this is a good matchup for them against Stanford. SMU's offense at home so far this season is not too far off of what they did last season when they averaged 40 PPG at home. It's their defense and road offense that have been the problem. Stanford allowed 48 points to UVA in its lone ACC road game so far this season and allowed 38 PPG on the road last season. This is a game that SMU could use to get right, and while the Mustangs have two losses, neither of those were conference losses.

We have been high on Missouri all year, and while we think Alabama is a top-5 team, the Crimson Tide are just 3-5 on the road since last season. Mizzou is 11-0 in FBS home games since last season, and while we would favor Alabama on a neutral field, the home field advantage is enough for us to slightly favor Missouri. We think Missouri will be able to run the ball against Alabama's defense, which has yet to live up to its preseason expectations. The 3.5 line also offers some insurance at a key number if Mizzou loses by a field goal.

This is another longshot play, but this is the best HR value in CHC-MIL tonight. The weather is going to be pitcher friendly like it was yesterday, but there were still several HRs hit in yesterday's game. Contreras is 5-10 with a HR and 0 Ks in his career against Matthew Boyd. When factoring in the weather, we set Contreras' line at +540 to hit a homer today.

Will Smith is just 1-7 with a single and 4 Ks in his career against Cristopher Sanchez. Smith hit just .143 in 16 post season games last year, including just 1-11 against LHPs. Smith struggled in the month of August, hitting just .159 in 22 games, and the under 1.5 TBs has hit in 14 of 20 games headed into today.

Aaron Ashby faced the Cubs in the first game of the series and was strong in 1.1 IP of work. We are assuming that Ashby's outing tonight will be a similar length, and we have him with just over 1 hit allowed. The top of the Cubs' lineup is loaded with left-handed bats (PCA, Busch, Tucker), so going with a LHP opener makes a ton of sense here. Ashby has allowed 1 or fewer hits in 30 of his 44 appearances this season.

This is a strong line with the consensus line being around +110 for Trea Turner to score a run. We set the line at around -120 for Turner to score a run today. Turner is hitting .323 against LHPs this season, and his ability to steal bases puts him in a strong spot to get into scoring position. This is a must win game for Philadelphia who dropped Game 1 at home to the Dodgers, and they will need their star SS to have a big game.

Blake Snell struck out 12 Phillies batters when these two teams faced off less than a month ago, but this game has different circumstances with it being a road playoff game for Snell. It is telling how patient the Phillies are with Snell's walks allowed line at 2.5. Snell could be mowing down hitters but getting in to deep counts and walking a few guys, which could limit how deep he goes tonight. We have Snell at 7 Ks, so not a bad performance, but the values is on the under which has hit in each of his last 3 road starts.

Cal has been a hard team to predict, which is often the case when you have a true Freshman at QB. Duke is coming off a strong defensive performance in which it held Syracuse to just 3 points, and despite Syracuse playing a backup QB, we still think it's impressive. Expect Duke HC Manny Diaz to try to rattle Cal's Freshman QB early and often.

UNLV hasn't looked all that great this season, but the Runnin' Rebels are 4-0 and still firmly in the race to represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs. Laramie, Wyoming is one of the tougher places to play, but Wyoming is just 4-10 against FBS opponents since last season, and we think UNLV is just more talented.

Notre Dame team total has been good to us, so why not go back to it. Notre Dame's defense has been a problem, but the offense has been rolling through 4 games. Boise has allowed 37 and 34 points in its two road games this season, and those were against Air Force and South Florida, who aren't known for explosive offenses. Boise has a tackling issue and that will be a problem against Jeremiyah Love and Notre Dame.

Both teams are coming off a bye week, but it is more important for a Texas who is still in the playoff picture than a 1-3 Florida team. DJ Lagway has struggled against top competition, and while Arch Manning has disappointed, Texas' defense has been strong.

We like Ohio to hold Ball State under their team total of 18.5, while we also like Ohio to slightly surpass their own team total. Ohio rushed for 270 yards last season vs. Ball State, and we expect the Bobcats to have a ton of success on the ground in this game as well. Ohio has the big advantage in this game at QB with Parker Navarro, and despite not loving Ohio's defense, we like their defense more than Ball State's offense.