Auburn has been oh so close in its last three games, losing to Oklahoma (by seven), Texas A&M (six) and Georgia (10). Auburn ranks 11th in the country in rush defense and has the unit to slow down Missouri's potent ground game. On Saturday Hugh Freeze & Co. get their breakthrough win against a Missouri team that will be hitting the road for the first time this season.

I realize that the Bulldogs will be without running back Fluff Bothwell, but are the Gators 10 points better than a Mississippi State team that is much improved this season? The Bulldogs have reinforcements for Bothwell, but Florida will be missing some key defensive players. Even if this gets out of hand, State should be alive for a backdoor cover.

Now that the line has dropped to -7, I'll play the Bulldogs. This is exactly the kind of game that coach Kirby Smart gets his team up for. In addition, this will be the first road test for Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels since surviving a one-score game at Kentucky.

The Gamecocks have certainly been a disappointment this season, one year after fielding a nasty defense and almost making the College Football Playoff. But they still have LaNorris Sellers, who has thrown four fewer interceptions than Oklahoma's John Mateer. And the South Carolina offensive line can only play better after the firing of coach Lonnie Teasley. Meanwhile, the Sooners were exposed last week in their loss to Texas. Oklahoma continues to struggle running the ball, and Mateer will regularly put the ball in harm's way. That bodes well for a South Carolina defense that leads the SEC in interceptions (eight). I expect a low-scoring game, and I'll sprinkle a half unit on the money line.

These teams are much closer than the opening line (-10) indicated. But the reason I'm going against the line movement is because of the Hoosiers' recent offensive performances away from home. In their last three road or neutral games, they have scored 15, 17 and 20 points. That won't be enough to cover in Eugene against a legitimate national title contender.

I admit I was dead-wrong about last week's Texas-Florida game staying Under. The Gators surprisingly pushed around the Longhorns defense in the first half. But the defense played better in the second half after committing more resources to stop the run. I could be wrong about this, but I think Texas will do better against Oklahoma since the Longhorns don't have to deal with a playmaker on the outside the likes of Florida's Dallas Wilson. Meanwhile the Texas offensive line is a hot mess and figures to struggle moving the ball against the Sooners (No. 1 in total defense, No. 2 in scoring defense). If OU quarterback John Mateer is ruled out, I expect this total to drop significantly so I'm playing it now.

This is a get-well spot for the Nittany Lions after their tough loss against Oregon last week. Meanwhile the Bruins, who were playing their first game after the firing of DeShaun Foster, didn't get any of the new-coach bump last week in a loss to Northwestern. UCLA has lost by much more than 24 to teams much worse than Penn State.

I first checked this total on Sunday and didn't play it thinking it would go up from 43.5. I was wrong, but it shouldn't matter. This game features two nasty defenses and two struggling offenses. The Longhorns may have whipped a bad Sam Houston team two weeks ago, but they still haven't shown they can score against a quality defense. Meanwhile the Gators have scored just one touchdown in each of their last three games. Weather may also play a role. I see a 16-6 type game. Two units.

The Bears are an Over bettor's dream: They score points and give up points. Meanwhile the Wildcats are finally getting healthy on offense and could have all of their projected starters in the lineup. Kansas State quarterback has the ability to gash the Baylor defense the same way that Auburn's Jackson Arnold did in the season opener. Expect a lot of points.

I realize that Alabama has had Georgia's number over much of the last two decades, winning nine of the last 10 meetings. But all but the last one came with Nick Saban coaching the Crimson Tide. In seven road or neutral-site games so far under coach Kalen DeBoer, Alabama is just 2-5, with four of those losses coming against unranked teams. Meanwhile Georgia hasn't lost a night game between the hedges since 2009. I loved the Bulldogs' 44-41 victory at No. 15 Tennessee two weeks ago, which is far more impressive than anything the Tide has done this season. I trust Georgia coach Kirby Smart addressed the issues with the secondary during the bye week. Give me two units on the Dawgs.

Running back Caden Durham is doubtful to play for a Tigers offense that already has struggled to score this season (75th in the country). Meanwhile the LSU defense has been lights-out this year, allowing just 9.3 points per game. I expect a tight game that is played close to the vest. Even though the Ole Mis defense has offered little resistance this season and even though coach Lane Kiffin says to "take the Over," I'm taking the Under.

The Beavers have been abysmal this season, going 0-4 and being outscored 156-63 in the process. They rank 126th in the country in scoring offense and 129th in scoring defense. On Saturday they were blown out 41-7 in a rivalry game by an Oregon team that had one eye on Penn State. Now the Beavers have a short week to prepare for a 3-0 Houston team that is coming off a bye week. Yikes. I love what coach Willie Fritz has built; the Cougars have gamebreakers on offense to put points on the board. I can't see Oregon State keeping up.

The Hurricanes are a complete team that figures to be a national title contender. But the biggest difference in this game is at quarterback: Miami's Carson Beck is playing championship football, while Florida's DJ Lagway is struggling (five interceptions last week at LSU). The Hurricanes are hosting a slew of blue chip recruits on Saturday, and I believe that Miami coach Mario Cristobal will want to leave an impression on them. Canes roll. Two units.

Kent State is widely rated as the worst team in the FBS and worse than all but a handful of FCS teams. Earlier this season the Flashes were down by 48 to Texas Tech at the half. Meanwhile the Seminoles are coming off a bye week after smoking East Texas A&M, 77-3. Even though Florida State's next game comes Friday night at Virginia, I fully expect the Seminoles to leave no doubt.

There's a big difference between blowing out bad teams at home and beating No. 16 Utah at Rice-Eccles Stadium. On Saturday Texas Tech faces a much different test than Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State. While the Utes haven't played anyone either, they have twice won on the road. With transfer quarterback Devon Dampier, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham looks as if he has the Utes back in the right direction, and Rice-Eccles Stadium is a notoriously difficult place to play when Utah is good.