Fantasy options to trust: Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Yahoo Sports’ Fantasy Football Live crew looks ahead to Sunday’s matchup between Kansas City and Jacksonville and which players could help fantasy managers the most.
Video Transcript
Monday night matchup: Chiefs at Jags.
Chiefs favored by 3.5 in this one.
45.5 is the over/under again.
This game is in Jacksonville.
Seeing Xavier Worthy back on the field was part of the boost we saw from an efficiency standpoint from Patrick Mahomes.
And sticking with Mahomes a bit, Week 4 now I'll caveat all of this actually before I get into the analysis.
Xavier was there playing against the Ravens defense.
Now the Ravens team, their defense so far they're the only team allowing top 5 marks to both quarterbacks and running backs as well through 4 weeks.
But seeing Mahomes being able to operate behind that offensive line was something of a switch up with Xavier Worthy back on the field.
And in week 4, it was his 2nd highest rate of throwing within the rhythm of the offense.
So that's where without pressure, throwing around 2.5 seconds before.
From an average time to throw standpoint, he was able to get the ball out again, working within the confines or within the concept of that particular play.
And that was with Xavier Worthy back there on the field.
And in weeks 2 and 3, you kind of saw some of that.
And while it was trying to force-feed my guy Hollywood Brown for targets or whatever, a lot of the hitches and also a lot of scrambles from Mahomes was because those guys weren't getting open.
And those plays weren't working out as intended.
But in week 4, everything was seeming to click.
I mean, we saw Travis Kelce getting mixed in, Judy Smith, Schuster working, and of course, each of the running backs as well.
I mean, folks will probably wind up picking up Berchard Smith off the waiver wire for how much he was being used as a pass catcher out of that backfield.
So everything was seemingly coming up.
Chiefs or Mahomes in week 4, and with Xavier Worthy back, it should be a reason for us to have a bit more optimism rostering some of those guys.
So while the Jaguars' defense I mean, 19th in pressure rate should be something of a harder out for Mahomes and the rest of the crew, I mean, seeing Xavier Worthy back there on the field has to be one of those things that you would hope to see the Chiefs get back into their form.
Harman, what did you get your eyes on?
All right, so there's been so much discussion about the Jaguars' passing game and what it hasn't been so far.
BTJ's disappointing second season, Trevor Lawrence is still kind of playing up and down.
Travis Hunter's lack of involvement.
And I think all of that has sort of disguised the fact that Liam Cohen has done an excellent job turning around a ground game in Jacksonville that was really stagnant prior to his arrival.
The Jaguars are 11th right now in rushing success rate on their running back runs.
They have been excellent as a ground team.
To put a finer point on just how different this unit is than what it was previously, so far this year, Jacksonville has the 4th lowest stuff rate.
That is the rate of carries that go for zero or negative yards on the season.
In 2022 to 2024, they led the league in stuff rate.
The highest percentage of their runs went for zero or negative yards.
This is an immediate thing we can point to, Liam Cohen being here.
Remember, the Buccaneers run game was awesome under his direction last year.
They're doing it differently here in Jacksonville.
They're much more of a zone-based run team than a gap-based run team, which has been a great fit for Travis ETN who kind of has turned his stagnated career around so far this season.
He's the running back.
9 in fantasy football.
He's averaging 2.35 yards before contact per rush.
That's the most among backs.
He's following those holes.
The holes are available for him.
But also don't forget about Facian Tin, who is not a fantasy starter at this point, but looks awesome out there and is another player that fits this outside zone system very well.
So he's one of the priority kind of stashes right now, and ETN is an every week starter in fantasy football, a running back one that you likely drafted much later than he's playing right now.