Thematic investing mid-year update

Jay Jacobs Jul 10, 2025 EQUITY

Charting themes across AI & geopolitics

Updated: August 15, 2025

KEY TAKEAWAYS

We believe AI and geopolitics remain two of the most influential forces shaping global markets in 2025, and their momentum could be accelerating. Our mid-year thematic update explores 10 key charts that illustrate what we’ve learned, what’s changed, and what the next-order implications of these powerful mega forces may be.

  • Themes are an increasingly important lens to look at market moves in 2025 and beyond and may present investment opportunities for forward-thinking investors.
  • As AI gets smarter, power demand, the labor market, and capex may be areas to watch, offering potential growth opportunities across the full AI value chain.
  • Geopolitical fragmentation is rapidly changing the landscape for tech, infrastructure, defense spending, and the dollar, potentially creating opportunities for investors.
Video 01:26

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Themes have played a significant role in the markets this year, with AI and geopolitics creating both opportunities and risks for investors.


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Our mid year thematic update looks at these two mega forces and explores what it could mean for your portfolio.


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Let's start with AI.


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The technology continues to improve, leading to smarter and more capable AI platforms.


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It's time to start thinking about what the implications of widespread AI adoption might look like.


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The power grid will need to evolve to keep up with growing power demand.


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The CapEx arms race will continue raging on between tech Titans seeking to win the category.


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And the shape of the workforce may evolve as AI drives the emergence of new technologies.


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Now turning to geopolitics, global fragmentation has several implications for investors.


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We're seeing regional tech rivalries emerge, a global infrastructure push to support reshoring, surging defense budgets, and central banks rethinking the role of the dollar.


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Together, these shifts are reshaping the global economy and maybe creating potentially powerful entry points for forward thinking investors.


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Check out our full outlook to explore the opportunities.

 

Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses which may be obtained by visiting www.iShares.com or www.blackrock.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

 

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

 

Funds that concentrate investments in specific industries, sectors, markets or asset classes may underperform or be more volatile than other industries, sectors, markets or asset classes and the general securities market.

 

AI technology relies on large data sets, which can lead to inaccuracies. Companies in AI face competition, rapid obsolescence, and depend on demand from various industries. Regulatory scrutiny could limit AI development, with data collection facing closer examination and potential fines. Country-specific regulations could also impact AI and big data companies.

 

This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the viewer.

 

This material contains general information only and does not take into account an individual's financial circumstances. This information should not be relied upon as a primary basis for an investment decision. Rather, an assessment should be made as to whether the information is appropriate in individual circumstances and consideration should be given to talking to a financial professional before making an investment decision. This material does not constitute any specific legal, tax or accounting advice. Please consult with qualified professionals for this type of advice.

 

Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA

 

©2025 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All rights reserved. iSHARES and BLACKROCK are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other marks are the property of their respective owners.

FEATURED FUNDS

THRO

iSHARES U.S. THEMATIC ROTATION ACTIVE ETF

Target dynamic exposure to evolving transformative themes.

ARTY

iSHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF

Target the $1.3T generative AI market with exposure to the full AI value chain.1

IFRA

iSHARES U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE ETF

Target U.S. infrastructure companies.

WHY THEMES MATTER

Themes like AI and geopolitics aren’t just dominating headlines – they’re reshaping the investment landscape. In an environment marked by slowing growth and tariff uncertainty, investors may consider using an active thematic rotation strategy – to dynamically shift exposure toward the most compelling themes, in an effort to capture evolving trends more effectively than traditional sector-based strategies. For example, as evidenced in the chart below, iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF (THRO)’s approach in consumer exposures tilts toward companies that BlackRock believes may be more economically resilient and less exposed to tariff pressures. Blending select discretionary and staple companies, it seeks to capture shifting consumer behavior in a slower-growth, value-conscious environment.

Source: THRO's thematic basket refers to the iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF (THRO)’s Consumer Overweight vs the S&P 500 index. BlackRock Systematic, as of May 2025. Sector returns calculated by BlackRock Systematic using data from BlackRock, MSCI Barra.THRO's exposures within consumer sectors that are overweight relative to the S&P 500 has been constructed using the systematic Theme identification framework outlined in the Fund prospectus. THRO's “Consumer overweight'” seek to capture exposure to companies BlackRock Systematic believes could outperform with a shift towards lower-cost, downstream consumer spending. For illustrative purposes only. Holdings subject to change. Performance data represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate with market conditions and may be lower or higher when you sell your shares. Current performance may differ from the performance shown. For standardized performance please visit THRO's product page

Chart description: Line chart showing the performance of the consumer overweights in THRO vs the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors over the period ranging from January 2025 to April 2025. With THRO’s consumer overweights at +12.36%, Consumer Discretionary Sector at +3.12% and Consumer staples sector at -3.99%.


THEMATIC PRODUCT IDEAS

  • For investors seeking a forward-looking approach to thematic investing, the iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation Active ETF (THRO) offers dynamic exposure to high-conviction U.S. market themes with the potential to shape the global economy. By leveraging proprietary insights, THRO aims to capture long-term capital appreciation through timely rotation into the most compelling growth opportunities.

FEATURED FUNDS

WHAT’S NEXT FOR AI?

We believe that AI is getting smarter which could lead to more adoption of these technologies, and this adoption could soon strain energy infrastructure. We explore these implications and more in the charts below:

AI INTELLIGENCE LEVELS ARE ADVANCING RAPIDLY

With an ever-increasing number of parameters, cutting-edge AI models are now routinely demonstrating a college-level intelligence, driving greater adoption of AI across consumers, enterprises, and governments.

Chart showing AI levels increasing from 1950 thorugh 2030s

Source: BlackRock as of June 2025 with data from Our World in Data. For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Views are subject to change.

Chart description: A graphic showing how the number of AI parameters has increased over time from 1950 – 2025 with predictions for the next five years and beyond. The graphic also equates this growth to different levels of technology. With our current level of 1T parameters representing a “College Degree” and predictions for future parameters equating with a “Noble Prize”.


Chart description: Bar chart showing capex spending across different sectors, showcasing that the spend across “big tech”, utilities and energy combined is nearly equal to the rest of the S&P 500.


AI AND TECH’S IMPACT ON THE LABOR FORCE

Just as technology has reshaped the labor force over decades, AI may reshape the future of the labor force as new forms emerge.

Chart showing impact of AI on labor force

Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, IPUMS USA, November 2024. Notes: The chart shows the breakdown of the U.S. labor force by industry based on U.S. Census data. The grouping of services and manufacturing industries into the IT intensive category is done at the individual occupation level, using a large language model to determine which occupations required medium or high IT use, and constraining it to match 2016 results based on O*NET Database from Muro et al (2017).

Chart description: Stacked chart showing the share of workers in industries from 1850-2020 showing the shift from Agriculture into services with IT-intensive services & manufacturing driving the change.


AI PRODUCT IDEAS

  • For investors looking to explore the full breadth of the AI value chain, the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY) offers targeted exposure to companies driving innovation across artificial intelligence and adjacent technologies. This ETF provides a diversified lens into the future of AI, from foundational infrastructure to real-world applications.
  • For those seeking a more hands-on approach, the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) is an actively managed strategy that aims to maximize total return by investing in high-conviction opportunities across the AI tech stack. Leveraging active insights, BAI dynamically navigates the evolving AI landscape to capture emerging growth potential.

FEATURED FUNDS

WHAT’S NEXT FOR GEOPOLITICAL FRAGMENTATION?

The geopolitical landscape is evolving rapidly, and the investment implications can be felt across the U.S. and beyond. Ranging from an uprising in global technology competition to a diversification of central bank assets.  We explore these implications and more in the charts below:

APPLYING A DOMESTIC LENS TO THE TECH INDUSTRY MAY MITIGATE GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Global tech competition is rising in fields like AI and EVs, with countries looking to establish and protect national champions. US companies with a more domestic focus, such as those with government contracts may prove to be more resilient.

chart showing percentage of government contracts across the tech sector

Source: BlackRock, as of 4/30/25. For illustrative purposes only. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Based on proprietary BlackRock Systematic Investing analysis.

Chart description: Donut charts showing the % share of government contract exposure across different indexes. Showing that U.S. tech independence has the highest percentage of exposure at 62% vs the S&P 500 which has the lowest at 18%.


RESHORING MANUFACTURING MAY REQUIRE MORE INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND

Building and upgrading infrastructure is costly – and the U.S. faces a $2.6T investment gap over the next decade¹, to keep roads, waterways, and ports ready for rising industrial demand.

Line chart showing total US construction spending as a percentage of GDP over time.

Source: BlackRock using data from  American Society of Civil Engineers, Fred St. Louis & Census.Gov as of May 2025. For illustrative purposes only. 1. American Society of Civil Engineers, “2025 report card for America’s Infrastructure,” 3/25/2025. 

Chart description: Line chart showing Total U.S. construction spending as a % of GDP over time, overlayed with the ASCE’s infrastructure grade- to show a correlation between more investment and improving grades.


Source: BlackRock using International Monetary Fund. IMF Data, accessed June 2025.

Chart description: Stacked area chart showing % of allocated central bank reserves to the USD vs all other allocated global reserves. Overlayed by showing the growth in value of gold reserves.


GEOPOLITICAL PRODUCT IDEAS

  • As the U.S. prioritizes technological self-sufficiency, the iShares U.S. Tech Independence Focused ETF (IETC) can offer investors active exposure to companies driving domestic innovation and reducing reliance on foreign tech. This strategy seeks to capitalize on the momentum behind U.S. tech independence.
  • With infrastructure investment playing a role in national policy, the iShares U.S. infrastructure ETF (IFRA) provides access to U.S. companies poised to benefit from increased spending on transportation, utilities, and digital infrastructure. It's a potential way to invest in the building of America's future.
  • As Policymakers, firms, and investors are increasingly aligning on the need to invest trillions of dollars in infrastructure, the iShares Infrastructure Active ETF (BILT) provides access to public companies that own or operate the physical assets that keep the world running amidst demand driven by AI, reshoring of supply chains, and energy independence.
  • In a rapidly evolving global security environment, the  iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF (IDEF) offers an active approach to investing in the defense sector. The fund targets companies at the forefront of defense innovation and modernization, aiming to potentially capture long-term growth in this space.
  • For investors seeking exposure to emerging and alternative assets, the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) & iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) offer exposure to gold and bitcoin—with growing relevance in today’s shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape.

FEATURED FUNDS

The iShares Trusts are not investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, and therefore are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or ETFs registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Investments in these products are speculative and involve a high degree of risk.

CONCLUSION

Thematic narratives continue to drive markets with AI and Geopolitics remaining as two of the most influential forces shaping our daily lives.

The continued adoption and advancement of AI have wide-ranging implications, from straining energy infrastructure to fueling increased spending across big tech, along with potential downstream effects on the labor market. Meanwhile, geopolitical fragmentation remains top of mind, whether driven by rising global competition in technology or an emphasis on reshoring that could require greater infrastructure investment. This fragmentation is influencing how money is allocated to defense and whether the dollar maintains global dominance.

Photo: Jay Jacobs

Jay Jacobs

Head of U.S. Equity ETFs

Ashley Doll

Thematic Strategist

Contributor

Anna Nerys

Thematic Strategist

Contributor

Thi Hoang

Thematic Strategist

Contributor

Scott Gladstone

Systematic Strategist

Contributor

Brian Dunlap

Lead Thematic and Active Product Strategist

Contributor

Titania Hanrahan

Head of U.S. FE Sector & Thematic Product Strategy

Contributor