Dollar weakness boosts international appeal

IXUS

iSHARES CORE MSCI TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK ETF

Broad, low-cost exposure to over 4,000 international stocks across developed and emerging markets.

IDEV

iSHARES CORE MSCI INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF

Low-cost, diversified exposure to over 20 developed markets outside the U.S., across all market caps.

IQLT

iSHARES MSCI INTL QUALITY FACTOR ETF

Targeted exposure to developed international stocks with strong fundamentals and stable earnings.

A CASE FOR GOING INTERNATIONAL

International stocks trounced U.S. equity markets in the first half of 2025, in one of the largest performance gaps in decades (Figure 1). While we still believe many U.S. companies are exceptional, and we continue to believe in the growth potential of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, we see three reasons for U.S. investors to consider increased exposures to international stocks, as detailed below: the dollar’s downturn, concentration risk in U.S. large-cap indexes like the S&P 500, and the value tilt of international equities.

Figure 1: U.S. vs. International performance

Line chart looking at the S&P 500 Index, MSCI EAFE Index, and Emerging Markets (EM) Index from 2024 to 2025.

Source: Bloomberg, as of June 23, 2025. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Line chart looking at the S&P 500 Index, MSCI EAFE Index, and Emerging Markets (EM) Index from 2024 to 2025.


THE DECLINING DOLLAR

The dollar is down nearly 10% year to date.1 Still, we believe it has farther to fall. The dollar has long benefited from a cycle of robust U.S. growth and investment, attracting foreign capital which in turn strengthened the dollar, creating a virtuous cycle. However, we think the dollar’s structural bull market that has persisted since 2014 may be coming to an end as American exceptionalism is challenged. Unpredictable trade policy, a reorientation of global growth, or demand for alternative reserve currencies could all weaken foreign demand for U.S. assets, putting further downward pressure on the dollar.

Over the last decade, a strong dollar has dampened international returns for a U.S.-based investor. Consider Figure 2, where unhedged international developed market returns (MSCI EAFE Index) benefited from currency impacts in just two of the preceding 10 years. Should our expectations for further dollar weakness be realized, U.S. investors could face a sea change in their experience of international investing, where currency becomes a tailwind to bolster returns rather than a headwind to diminish them.

Figure 2: Dollar strength has historically been a drag on international equity returns

Bar graph looking at unhedged international returns from 2015 to 2025.

Source: Bloomberg, BlackRock. Total returns are represented by MSCI EAFE index calculated in USD, while local equity returns refer to MSCI indexes calculated in local currency (MSCI EAFE Local Index). Currency impact is calculated by taking the MSCI EAFE Index return minus the MSCI EAFE Local Index return. Currency impact as represented by the difference in returns in USD – Local. 2025 as represented by YTD returns (1/1/2025 – 6/10/2025). Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chart description: Bar graph looking at unhedged international returns from 2015 to 2025.


U.S. CONCENTRATION RISK

The so-called Magnificent Seven stocks have delivered remarkable returns over the past three years, fueled by the promise of AI and the unrivaled ability of U.S. corporations to generate outsized profits.2 Strong performance from the top has also improved the quality attributes of broad indexes, reducing average leverage and increasing profitability metrics.3 In a world of structurally higher interest rates, this continues to underpin our preference for high quality, primarily large cap, U.S. companies.

The flip side to this remarkable performance, however, is a historic rise in concentration: market cap-weighted indices like the S&P 500 are as concentrated as they have ever been. Thirty years ago, the top 20 names in the S&P 500 represented about 28% of the total index. Today, the top 20 names account for over 40%.4

The same phenomenon is happening at a global level as well, where the share of U.S. equities in global indexes has also reached record highs. In 2005, the U.S. made up just 50% of the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) universe (Figure 3). Twenty years of American exceptionalism later, that number has climbed to 64% (Figure 3).

While an overweight position in U.S. large caps has paid off over the last decade and a half, concentration risk is still a top cited concern amongst investors we speak to. As leadership narrows, headline-level returns are increasingly beholden to a smaller list of constituents and countries, potentially making portfolios riskier overall.

Alongside the tailwind of a declining dollar, we favor international indexes as a diversification tool precisely because they have bucked the concentration trend. Since 2005, the three largest countries in MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index — the U.K., Japan and France — have steadily ceded ground, with their combined weight declining as leadership has broadened out.5

Figure 3.1: Concentration swells in the U.S.

Line chart looking at the weight in ACWI Index for the U.S., U.K., and Japan from 2005 to 2025.

Source: BlackRock, MSCI, Morningstar. As of June 1, 2025. Weightings subject to change.

Chart description: Line chart looking at the weight in ACWI Index for the U.S., U.K., and Japan from 2005 to 2025.


Figure 3.2: While declining elsewhere

Line chart looking at the weight in ACWI ex-USA Index for the U.K., Japan, and France from 2005 to 2025.

Source: BlackRock, MSCI, Morningstar. As of June 1, 2025. Weightings subject to change.

Chart description: Line chart looking at the weight in ACWI ex-USA Index for the U.K., Japan, and France from 2005 to 2025.


As investors look to build more balanced portfolios — with H1’s performance a stark reminder of why — we prefer international equities as potential diversifiers to large-cap U.S. stocks. International equities have delivered both lower volatility and lower correlation relative to the S&P 500 than small caps over the last decade.6 That relationship is emphasized in drawdown periods: since 2010, when the S&P 500 posted negative quarterly returns, small caps underperformed significantly — posting nearly double the losses of developed markets. In fact, since 1999, in months when the S&P 500 was down, small caps were always down by more than international equities.7

In addition to their dimmer diversification prospects, the macro outlook also remains a headwind for small caps. Smaller, riskier companies have tended to perform best when we are coming out of a recession — not when we see U.S. growth slowing in the quarters ahead.8

FACTORS FAVOR INTERNATIONAL STOCKS

International markets often have different drivers of risk and return than U.S. ones. One way to quantify these differences is by factor breakdown. The U.S. has long benefitted from its inherent growth tilt, while both developed and emerging markets often exhibit higher exposure to the value factor, with higher dividend and earnings yields than their U.S. counterparts.9 By incorporating international equities into a diversified portfolio, investors may benefit from structural geopolitical or thematic forces, while also offsetting some of the inherent growth bias within their U.S. equity sleeves.

The alpha generated by factor tilting is even greater in international markets than it is in U.S. ones, making factor investing a compelling implementation style for those looking to add exposure. Currently, we favor the quality factor in international markets, which screens for companies that have the earnings stability and cash flows to weather a volatile geopolitical backdrop. The quality factor also exhibits an asymmetric up/down capture profile — meaning it has historically participated to a greater degree on the upside than on the downside.10

CONCLUSION

Home country bias is a perennial theme among U.S. investor portfolios. The average advisor is overweight U.S. equities, with allocations continually increasing over the past decade. Our analysis of more than 20,000 portfolios showed that, on average, advisors allocate as much as 77% of their stock sleeves to U.S. companies11 — compared to a 64% weighting in MSCI All Country World Index.12

But recent polling data suggests that trend may soon reverse.13 Many advisors see opportunity in international equities: the exposure captured the largest share of bullish sentiment in our most recent poll with 43% considering adds in the next 3-6 months. We believe that increased demand could be a catalyst for a further move higher.

U.S. investors interested in adding to international exposures via the ease and tax-efficiency of exchange traded funds (ETFs) may consider:

  • The iShares Core MSCI Total International Stock ETF (IXUS) provides exposure to a broad range of international developed and emerging market companies. IXUS seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-, mid- and small-capitalization non-U.S. equities.
  • The iShares Core MSCI International Developed Markets ETF (IDEV) provides low cost exposure to over 20 global developed markets, excluding the U.S. IDEV seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large-, mid- and small-capitalization developed market equities, excluding the United States.
  • Investors specifically interested in accessing the quality factor in international markets may consider the iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF (IQLT), which provides exposure to developed international stocks exhibiting positive fundamentals: high return on equity, stable year-over-year earnings growth and low financial leverage.
Photo: Kristy Akullian, CFA

Kristy Akullian, CFA

Senior member of iShares Investment Strategy

Jon Angel

Investment Strategy

Contributor

Annie Khanna

Investment Strategy

Contributor

Faye Witherall

Investment Strategy

Contributor

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    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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    Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares ETF and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

    Any links to third-party websites are provided for use at your own discretion. Each third party is solely responsible for the content presented and availability of its website. BlackRock does not control, monitor or maintain third-party websites, their content or the products/services they offer. Content may change without notice. When you leave BlackRock’s website and enter a third-party website, you will be subject to that site’s terms, policies and/or notices, including those related to privacy and security, as applicable. Please review those policies and notices on the third-party website.

    Before engaging Fidelity or any broker-dealer, you should evaluate the overall fees and charges of the firm as well as the services provided. Free commission offer applies to online purchases of select iShares ETFs in a Fidelity account. The sale of ETFs is subject to an activity assessment fee (from $0.01 to $0.03 per $1,000 of principal). For iShares ETFs, Fidelity receives compensation from the ETF sponsor and/or its affiliates in connection with an exclusive long-term marketing program that includes promotion of iShares ETFs and inclusion of iShares funds in certain Fidelity Brokerage Services platforms and investment programs. Please note, this security will not be marginable for 30 days from the settlement date, at which time it will automatically become eligible for margin collateral. Additional information about the sources, amounts, and terms of compensation can be found in the ETF’s prospectus and related documents. Fidelity may add or waive commissions on ETFs without prior notice.

    The Funds are distributed by BlackRock Investments, LLC (together with its affiliates, “BlackRock”).

    ©2024 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All Rights Reserved. BLACKROCK, iSHARES, iBONDS, LIFEPATH, ALADDIN and the iShares Core Graphic are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.

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