Monthly Outlook

Unsettled weather will continue across the UK through the next couple of weeks but after a chilly few days it will become much milder.

There may be a better chance of drier spells of weather after mid November but it could turn colder again. However, there is a lot of uncertainty, starting with doubts about where ex-Hurricane Melissa might go as it tracks across the Atlantic.

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Changeable but becoming milder

Chilly and brisk north to north-westerly winds will bring scattered showers throughout Saturday, mainly in windward areas, and some of these will be wintry over high ground in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

Sheltered inland areas will have the best of the day's sunshine but on Sunday a front will bring a band of rain steadily south-eastwards across the UK with snow in the Highlands, followed by another mixture of sunshine and showers on Monday.

On Tuesday and Wednesday another couple of frontal systems will bring bands of rain south-eastwards but these should weaken as they approach the UK and come up against high pressure temporarily building over western Europe.

The second half of the week will become much milder, with winds mainly coming from the southerly quarter. However, it will stay unsettled with low pressure systems and associated fronts arriving from the south-west, bringing bands of rain and stiff winds, interspersed with sharp showers, which could be thundery.

Most likely staying unsettled but mild

There is low confidence in the forecast the following week not least because of uncertainty about where the remnants of ex-hurricane Melissa will go. After moving sluggishly around the Caribbean, it should eventually pick up speed and run north-eastwards across the Atlantic, and could end up somewhere near western or north-western Europe as it get mixed up with mid-latitude low pressure systems. If that's the case, then we can expect the unsettled weather to continue, with further periods of rain, some heavy, and occasionally strong winds. Rainy periods may be interspersed with brighter but showery days.

It will, however, be mild for early November, with temperatures above or well above average. There may be a chance of some drier conditions later in the week, and if Melissa's remains happen to head farther north then there's a world in which more of the week could be drier.

Drier at times but becoming chillier later

There is low confidence in the outlook for the following couple of weeks too, with the longer range models diverging. Both have a suggestion of high pressure building somewhere in the vicinity of the eastern Atlantic but exactly where it lines up will be crucial to the outcome.

Most probably it will mean a better chance of stringing together some drier days but that does not preclude occasional interruptions from bands of rain or showers, and a few windy days.

There should be another week of relatively mild weather but after mid-November it could become chillier, with temperatures closer to or even a bit below average, so frosty nights would become more likely.

In Tuesday's outlook we might have a better idea of where ex-Hurricane Melissa will end up and what impact it could have, and perhaps more clarity on mid-November's prospects.