Ole Miss-Georgia preview: Can Kirby Smart survive another slow start?
Josh Pate previews Saturday’s showdown between the hedges and wonders if the Bulldogs can beat the Rebels if Georgia has another poor first half. Subscribe to “Josh Pate’s College Football Show” on YouTube.
Video Transcript
Ole Miss at Georgia Saturday, 3:30 Eastern kickoff on ABC.
This is the moment last year in this game in Oxford, Mississippi, where I thought the Georgia halo sort of started to fade a little bit.
Maybe it got dented because Georgia went on to win the SEC championship.
They went on to the playoff, and it was crazy.
It was miraculous because it was far from a perfect team.
But they looked vulnerable in this game last year.
I think it was a 28 to 10 final.
Ole Miss outgained them by like 150 or something like that.
Ole Miss outrushed Georgia 134 to 59 in this game.
It looked like there were terminal flaws with Georgia.
So all week, if you've been listening to Kirby Smart, he's been stressing home field.
We need this to be the best home field advantage we've ever had, and you may think to yourself, oh, they probably got a lot of recruits in town.
He's just saying that, you know, they got a big TV game.
They want a really good spectacle for the crowd.
Yeah, they want all that.
Yeah, all those things are true.
Here's what else you need to know.
Georgia has been really bad in first halves.
They have gotten off to poor starts defensively.
They have, therefore, let themselves get put in a hole.
They were able to climb out of it against Tennessee.
They were not able to climb out of it against Alabama.
They got put in, and again last week by Auburn, and somehow, someway got out of it, but it's a trend you don't want to continue.
Ole Miss is number 6 in first half passing in the country.
Georgia defensively, first half numbers here: 85th defensively, pass yards per first half.
I don't think that's a stat we've ever talked about.
They are 130th, the Georgia Bulldogs on defense at completion percentage allowed in the first half.
So when you listen to Coach Smart there talk about how imperative it is you get there, show up early, scream as loud as you possibly can early, it's because he understands if Ole Miss grabs a lead on him it could be a long afternoon there between the hedges.
Ole Miss has only been on the road one other time this year though.
And that was against Kentucky.
I have mixed feelings about this game.
Let's take a look at what the model thinks.
FanDuel's got Georgia minus 7.5 right now.
We're a little bit shorter than that.
Model likes Ole Miss a little bit more.
We got Georgia -5, and I don't have a strong feel on it.
It's a desperation spot for Georgia.
It's a classic Ole Miss wants to win.
Georgia needs to win type of moment.
Same as the Red River shootout last week doesn't always guarantee an outcome, but, I, I just, even though I went to this well and lost early on in the year with the Alabama result in Athens, I always default to trusting Kirby Smart in these spots at home.
And I will take Georgia to win, but I don't know if this is a pullaway game for them.
I really don't.
I think there's enough that Ole Miss has that that number right there, 7.5 is a little bit too much for me.
I'm not betting the game, so I'm riding the fence on this one.
I'm taking Georgia to win.
I'm taking Ole Miss plus anything over 7.