Planalytics Q2 & BTS Webcast

WEBCAST
2016 Back-To-School Outlook

© 2015Planalytics,Inc.AllRightsReserved.ProprietaryandConfidential.
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1. Overview – Retail Sales Looking Brighter for
Back-to-School
2. 2Q Update – Earnings Scorecards; Consumer
Discretionary Leads Growth
3. July Same-Stores Sales Somewhat Mixed
4. Back-to-School Drives July Traffic to Best
Month of Calendar Year
5. Back-to-School Outlook; Solid Forecast, Room
for Upside
6. Category Spend; School Supplies and Clothing
Highest Growth
Agenda
7. Finding Dollars in New Places
8. Where Consumers Plan to Shop – Discount
Stores & Online
9. Shopping and Advertising Starting Earlier
10. Fashion Trends
11. Calendar Impact
12. 2016 Second Half Predictions
13. Macro Outlook

3
1. Overview – We Expect Better BTS Sales After
Below Average Season Last Year
• Total BTS spending to reach near-record levels
- Fung Global Retail & Technology expects back-to-school sales (July & August) to rise 2%-3% this
year, compared to 0.4% last year
- Families have more kids in school thanks to the large generation of Millennials who are parents of
school-age children
- Families are expected to spend the same or more than last year according to the NRF
• Consumer purchase mentality—What do we need now? BTS shoppers plan to shop and
research earlier in 2016
- Target reacts by adopting an early-July back-to-school rollout in physical stores
- Online advertising starting earlier: Home Depot, Lowe’s and Amazon, Costco, Sam’s Club
• Favorable Macro Backdrop; Spending Remains Steady
- Wage growth picking up
- Labor marketing standing firm

4
• Earnings Growth: 86% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported 2Q 2016 through 8/5;
the blended earnings decline is 3.5%
• Consumer Discretionary reporting highest earning’s growth at 10.7%, driven by Internet
Retail (+86%), and Household Durables (32%)
• Consumer Discretionary sector are reporting the 2nd largest (behind Information
Technology +7.2%) upside vs. estimated earnings(+6.9%)
Source: FactSet Research Systems 2016
54%
69%
33%
71%
12% 12%46%
19%
67%
17%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
S&P 500 Revenues S&P 500 Earnings Consumer Disc Revenue Consumer Disc. Earnings
Above In-Line Below
2. 2Q Update – Earnings Scorecard; Consumer
Discretionary Leads Growth
Q2 2016 Earnings and Revenues Versus Estimates

5
• Among apparel retailers, L Brands and
Zumiez outperformed
- L Brands reported 2.0% SSS, above its
0.4% estimate
- Bath & Body Works coms were up 6%
• U.S. Costco traffic was up 3.5% in July, fairly
consistent with prior months
- Independence Day holiday shift negatively
impacted comp sales by 2.5%
• Gap reported a decline of 4.0%, driven by
challenging store traffic in May and July
Source: Company Reports
Same-Store Sales (%)
July 2016
Actual
July
2015
July 2016 Est.
MASS MERCHANTS
Costco Wholesale (2.0) 0.0 (1.8)
Costco US (3.0) 3.0
Costco Canada 3.0 N/A
Costco International (2.0) (10.0)
Costco Wholesale (ex fuel) 1.0 7.0
Costco US (ex fuel) 0.0 7.0
Costco Canada (ex fuel) 6.0 N/A
Costco International (ex fuel) 2.0 7.0 0
Fred’s (4.6) 0.7 0.0
SPECIALTY APPAREL STORES 3 0 3
Buckle (10.9) (8.1) (3.9)
Cato (10.0) (1.0) (1.0)
Gap (4.0) (3.0) (1.0)
L Brands 2.0 3.0 0.1
Victoria’s Secret 0.0 1.0
Bath & Body Works 6.0 5.0
Zumiez (2.9) (7.6) (5.0)
3. July Same - Store Sales Somewhat Mixed

6
• Foot traffic dropped (5.8%) in July, which was the lowest monthly YoY drop this calendar year
• Despite hot weather and more than a bit of political uncertainty, Back-to-School shopping began to
stem declines in store traffic
• Conversion rate has increased for the 7th consecutive month
• While conversion was up 0.1%, the average transaction value (ATV) was down 1.6%, dropping
sales per shoppers (SPS) 1.2% and negatively impacting overall sales
Source: RetailNext
Monthly Sales and Traffic YoY%
Traffic Conv. ATV SPS Tran. % Return
July
-5.8% 0.1% -1.6% -1.2% -5.7% -0.2%
June
-8.9% 0.6% -2.4% 0.7% -6.0% -0.1%
May
-9.9% 0.6% -2.5% 1.6% -6.1% -0.1%
April
-6.5% 0.2% 1.3% 3.1% -4.7% 0.0%
March
-9.7% 0.4% -0.7% 2.2% -7.0% -0.1%
4. 2Q Update – Back-to-School Drives July Traffic
to Best Month of Calendar Year

7
• Fung Global Retail & Technology expects back-to-school sales (July & August)
to rise 2%-3% this year, compared to 0.4% last year
• This is slightly below the average increase of 3.8%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
YoY % Change Avg. Change 2016 Est.
Source: US Census Bureau and FGRT Estimates
5. Back-to-School Outlook – Solid Growth Forecast;
Room for Upside
Back To School Sales Growth – 1993-2016E

8
• National Retail Federation(NRF) combined Back-to-School/
Back-to-College (BTS/BTC) spending to rise 11.5% in 2016 to $75.8 billion
- Average BTS family is forecasted to spend $673.57, up 6.8% from last year
- College plans to spend $888.71, a 1.2% decrease
- But, total college spend will rise 12.5% due to an increase in BTC consumers
• Deloitte expects parents will spend $488 on BTS items for their children this
year, up 12.4% from last year
$673.6
$520
$540
$560
$580
$600
$620
$640
$660
$680
$700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
5. NRF and Deloitte Predict Positive Uptick
Total BTS per Household

9
• eMarketer sees e-commerce sales growth of 15.3% to $65.42 billion in BTS months
- 7.9% of total retail sales for the period, up from 7.0%
- In-store shopping continue to dominate back-to-school season
• Mobile shopping, continues to expand with nearly 35% of BTS shoppers planning to
purchase online
• NRF revised full-year e-commerce sales forecast; expects e-commerce sales up 7%-10%,
compared to prior forecast for a 6%-9%
5.10%
7.90%
5%
7%
9%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E
Source: eMarketer
5. Online Sales to Drive Additional Growth
US Retail E-Commerce BTS: % of Total Sales

10
• 87% of parents intend to spend the same or more compared to last year
13%
32%55%
Expect to spend less
Expect to spend more
Expect to spend the
same
Why do you plan to
spend “more”?
Why do you plan to
spend “less”?
1. Children need more items
2. Children need more expensive items
3. Prices are generally higher
1. Children need fewer items
2. Household has less money
3. Fewer children in grades K-12
Source: Deloitte Survey
Sample size (N)=1200
5. Household Spending Levels;
Families to Spend More than Last Year

11
• Clothing and accessories, the largest category, is expected to represent 34.9% of total BTS sales.
- Dollar spend is up 8.1% year over year
• School supplies is projected to represent 16.0% of total BTS sales
- Dollar spend is up 10.3% year over year
BTS 2015 2016E
YoY%
Change
Total ($B) 24.9 27.3 9.6%
Total per household
(USD)
$630 $674 6.9%
Spend per Household by
Category
2015 2016E
YoY%
Change
Shoes 117.56 126.55 7.6%
Clothing 217.82 235.39 8.1%
School Supplies 97.74 107.76 10.3%
Electronics 197.24 204.06 3.5%
BTC 2015 2016E
YoY%
Change
Total ($B) 43.1 48.5 12.5%
Total per household
(USD)
$899 $888 -1.2%
Spend per Household by
Category
2015 2016E
YoY%
Change
Shoes 78 73 -6.2%
Clothing 139 137 -1.3%
School Supplies 75 67 -10.8%
Electronics 244 207 -15.0%
Source: NRF and Prosper
6. Back-to-School – Category Spend;
School Supplies and Clothing Highest Growth

12
• Category spend planned for 2016 back-to-school season
• Most Shoppers will spend their budget on clothing and accessories and
electronics
• 96% plan to buy school
supplies
• Average spend $107,
up 10.3%
• Hot items: books, backpacks
• 95% plan to buy Clothing &
Accessories
up 8.1%
• Hot items: Jewelry,
handbags
• 57% plan to buy Electronics
• Average spend $204, up 3.5%
• Hot Items: computers, tablets,
wearable tech
• 94% plan to buy shoes
up 7.6%
6. Category Spend; Most Dollars Spent on
Clothing and Electronics

13
7. Finding Dollars In New Places
• Retailers and suppliers finding new strategies to
boost spending for BTS season
• Merchandise tie-ins
- “Finding Dory Back to School Collection” to increase
appeal of everyday back-to-school items
• Discounters are offering minimum spend discount
- Spend $20 and save $5
- encourage larger baskets
• In-Store experience
- JCPenney locating fixtures stocked with the merchandise
featured on the mannequins directly adjacent to
mannequins
- Shoppers can assemble complete outfits by shopping the
fixtures

14
• Discount Stores (61%) and department stores (59.6%) are historically
the two largest shopping destinations for BTS shoppers
- Discount Stores at lowest level in survey history
• Online shopping has seen a dramatic jump – nearly 30% increase
year-over-year
62%
56% 54%
36% 36%
22%
15% 13% 13%
7%
61% 60%
51%
46%
39%
22%
17% 16% 12% 6%
2015 2016
8. BTS Where Consumers Plan to Shop – Discount Stores
Top Destination, Online Continues Strong Growth
Where Consumers Plan to Shop for BTS

15
• Consumers to take advantage of back-to-school sales, spreading out their budgets and avoiding
last-minute crowds
• More shopping in July than LY and fewer shopping in September
- 26.1% plan to shop at least two months before school vs 19.9% LY
- While 33.8% plan to shop three weeks to one months before school starts vs 42.8% LY
• August remain the most popular time for back-to-school shopping
22.2
50.9
22.1
2.7 2.1
2 or More Months
Before School
Starts
3-4 Weeks Before
School Starts
1-2 Weeks Before
School Starts
After School
Starts
26.1
33.8
25.1
6.4
8.5
2 or More
Months Before
School Starts
3-4 Weeks
Before School
Starts
1-2 Weeks
Before School
Starts
After School
Starts
The Week
School Starts
9. Back-to-School – Consumers to Shop Earlier This Year;
August Wins
When Consumers Plan to Start BTS Shopping When Consumers Plan to Start BTC Shopping

16
• All retailers are participating in
promotional activities across
platforms
- In-store
- On-line
- Social media
- Mobile
= with BTS campaign = no BTS campaign
Source: Fung Global Retail & Technology, as of 8/1
9. Online Advertising & Promotions Starting
Earlier than Ever

17
• Seventeen Magazine predicts sleeker looks for the Fall.
10. Back-to-School 2016 Fashion Trends

18
September 2015
Labor Day: September 7
Public Schools Open: September 9
Rosh Hashanah: September 13-15
September 2016
Labor Day: September 5
Public Schools Open: September 8
Rosh Hashanah: October 2-4
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30
Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa
1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30
• Neutral calendar impact
11. Calendar Impact

19
• Fashion at a value price will be a winner
in second half of 2016
- Products hovering on deflationary pricing
- further bifurcation of the retail market
• The Weinswig Hourglass thesis:
- Consumer spending gravitating to the top and
bottom of the hourglass
• Outlets and off-price retailers gain more
BTS shoppers
- Macy’s Backstage
- Nordstrom Rack
The Weinswig Hourglass
Neiman Marcus
Saks
The RealReal
Nordstrom
Kate Spade, Coach, Michael Kors
Bloomingdale’s
Anthropologie
Costco
BJ’s - Sam’s Club
Chico’s
Lord & Taylor
Macy’s - Dillard’s
J.Crew, Banana Republic, Urban Outfitters
White House Black Market - Ann Taylor - Abercrombie & Fitch
Foot Locker - Finish Line
Ann Taylor Loft - JCPenney - Kohl’s
Kroger - Safeway - Supervalu
Burlington
Buckle - Hollister
American Eagle - Express
Gap
Old Navy - Carter’s - Children’s Place
CVS - Walgreens
T.J. Maxx - Marshalls - Home Goods
Target
Sears
H&M
Ross Stores
Walmart
Nordstrom Rack – Macy’s Backstage
Aldi
Dollar Stores
ThredUP
12. Who Will Benefit in Second Half of 2016?

20
Source: Energy Information Agency
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Indicator Period 2016 2015 YoY change
Impact on
Consumption
GDP Growth Q2 1.2% 3.9% (270 bps) -
Gas Price ($ per gallon) Aug. $2.15 $2.63 (18.2%) +
Consumer Price Inflation Jun. 1.1% 0.2% 90 bps +
Savings Rate Jun. 5.3% 5.8% (50 bps) +
Unemployment rate Jul. 4.9% 5.3% (40) bps +
Wage Growth Jun. 3.6% 3.2% 40 bps +
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City
Composite Home Price Index
May 188.3 178.9 +5.2% +
University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment
Jul. 90.0 93.1 (3.3%) -
Tax-Free Shopping Days Q2/Q3 54 63 (14.2%)
-
13. Overview: Favorable Macro Backdrop;
Spending Remains Steady
McGraw Hill Financial
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
21
• US GDP came in well below expectation; advanced at 1.2% in Q2 vs
estimates of 2.6%
• Consumer spending rose robustly, expanding at 4.2% while business
investment weakened.
-0.9%
4.6%
4.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3.9%
2.0%
1.4%
1.1% 1.2%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016
US GDP Annualized Growth Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13. GDP Disappoints in 2Q16

22
$2.15
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
• Gas prices dropped to $2.15 per gallon in the second week of August, down
18.2% from a year ago. A drop in crude oil prices has driven a 8-week-long
decline in costs at the pump.
• Low gas prices continue to curb the inflation rate at a low point.
Sources: Energy Information Agency
Retail Gasoline Prices ($/Gallon)
13. Gas Prices Continue to Decline

23
• US consumer prices increased for a 4th month straight, rising 0.2% compared
with May.
• Americans paid more for housing, gasoline and health care, while the prices
for vehicles continued to slump.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Not seasonally adjusted
1.1%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
12-Month % Change CPI – All Urban Consumers
13. Inflation Remains Moderate

24
5.3%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
US Annual Personal Saving Rate %
• US personal savings rate dropped to 5.3%, down from 5.5% in May, the lowest
since March 2015.
• Consumers are becoming less cautious and save less to finance additional
spending.
Seasonally Adjusted as of June, 2016
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
13. Savings Rate Moves Lower as Consumers
Increase Spending

25
4.9%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Jul-06
Dec-06
May-07
Oct-07
Mar-08
Aug-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Nov-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
Dec-11
May-12
Oct-12
Mar-13
Aug-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Jul-16
• US unemployment rate stayed at 4.9% in July, with the labor participation rate
climbing 0.1% from June. Total new jobs added was 255,000.
• Strong hiring alleviates people’s concerns from unexpected weak GDP
readings and global economic turmoil.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Through July 31, 2016 ; Seasonally adjusted
US Unemployment Rate %
13. The Labor Market Stands Firm

26
2.6%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted as of July, 2016
• In July, average hourly wage for workers in the private sector rose by 0.3%
month over month and by 2.6% year over year.
• More accelerated wage growth is projected as employers compete over a
diminishing pool of workers in the resilient labor market.
US Average Hourly Earnings for Private Sector: YoY%
13. Wage Growth Is Picking Up

27
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
• The 20-City Composite reported a YoY gain of 5.2%, down from 5.4% in April.
• Despite the unexpectedly cooled US home-price growth, home prices
continued to appreciate across the country and sales soared to the highest
level since 2007.
Source: McGraw Hill Financial
188.3
13. Housing Market Is Strong

28
90.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
• In July the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slowed down to 90.0 from
June’s 93.5, down 3.3% year-over-year.
• Concerns about Brexit remained surprisingly high; uncertainties surrounding global
economic prospects and the presidential election will keep consumers more cautious.
University of Michigan Monthly Consumer Sentiment Index
Through July 31, 2016
Source: University of Michigan
13. Consumer Sentiment Slips Slightly in July

29
Source: Federation of Tax Administrators
2016 2015
Dates Days Days in 2Q Days in 3Q Dates Days Days in 2Q Days in 3Q
Alabama August 5-7 3 0 3 August 5-7 3 0 3
Arkansas August 6-7 2 0 2 August 1-2 2 1 1
Connecticut August 21-27 7 0 7 August 16-22 7 0 7
Florida August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-16 10 0 10
Georgia July 30-31 2 1 2 July 31- August 1 2 2 0
Iowa August 5-6 2 0 2 August 7-8 2 0 2
Louisiana August 5-6 2 0 2 August 7-8 2 0 2
Maryland August 14-20 7 0 7 August 9-15 7 0 7
Massachusetts N/A 0 0 0 August 15-16 2 0 2
Mississippi August 5-7 2 2 2 July 31- August 1 2 2 0
Missouri August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
New Mexico August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
Ohio August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
Oklahoma August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
South Carolina August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
Tennessee July 29-31 3 2 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
Texas August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
Virginia August 5-7 3 0 3 August 7-9 3 0 3
Total Days 54 5 49 63 5 58
States 17 18
13. Tax-Free Shopping Days Scaled Back This Year
• This year, there are nine fewer tax-free shopping days and one less state participating
• Notable changes: Florida reduced the length to three days, down from 10 last year. Massachusetts, facing a budget crunch, is skipping tax holidays this year

30
• Magic: Las Vegas, Aug. 15-17
• JDA & Fung Global Retail & Technology Dinner with The Disruptors: New
York, Sept. 6
• Design: Retail Forum, Sept. 22-24
• Vanity Capital Conference: Paris, Sept. 26-27
• ICSC RECon Asia Conference: Manila, Oct. 11-12
• ICSC Research Connections: Austin, Oct. 16-18
• Revionics Insight 2016 Customer Conference: Austin, Oct. 16-18
• WWD Apparel & Retail CEO Summit: New York, Oct. 25-26
• BrandCollective: Sonoma, Oct. 27-28
14. Upcoming Events

31
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