Download as PDF, PPTX
More Related Content
Similar to Cognitive biases - Logic vs. The brain
Cognitive biases - Logic vs. The brain
- 1. Cognitive Biases -Perhaps Fallacies?Useful Errors? Aditya Shukla Learning Scientist Founder of The OWL
- 2. Road map 1. Thebrain vs. The robot 1. The brain vs. The computer 2. The human vs. The monkey 3. Cognition vs. Pure logic 4. Cognitive biases vs. Informal fallacies 5. Does the brain know logic? 2. Examples: Nature and logical structure 3. Animal cognition 1. Can they infer principles of logic from experience? 2. Horse, Gorilla, Dog 4. How do you deal with cognitive biases? 5. Honourable mentions 6. Summary
- 3. If you arehaving a beer, you must be more than 18 years of age Which card(s) should be turned over to know that the rule has been followed? Beer Water 25 12 21 43
- 4. The brain vsThe robot
- 5. What is cognition? •Cognition is the set of mental processes involved in gaining information and making sense of it. • Cognition is derived from the latin word ‘Cognoscere’ which means ‘get to know’. • Sensory information Cognition Guided behaviour • Decision making, Problem solving, language comprehension, abstract thought, etc. require basic cognitive skills such as selective attention, working memory, divided attention, concentration, processing speed, spatial cognition, computations, etc. These skills are supported and created by an assembled kludge of neurons which signal in specific patterns.
- 6. The brain vsthe computer • Factors which matter in ‘how’ information is stored and retrieved in the brain • 60+ Neurotransmitters • Some inhibitory or some excitatory • Electrochemical signals at particular voltages • Global brain wave communications • Temporal firing speed • Glial support for repair • Probabilistic nature of firing • Shape of the neuron • Factors which matter in ‘how’ information is stored and retrieved in the computer • Any set of information can be represented as a series of 0s and 1s
- 7. Information from the environment Cognition Sensory Information + New information created in thebrain Meta cognition, Executive functions Credits: futurestepsconsultancy.co.uk, inside-the-brain.com, thehindu.com
- 8. The guessing experiment byGeorge L. Wolford • Human subjects and monkeys were presented a task on a computer which involved guessing where the ‘dot’ will appear next. • The dot could be appear at the top or the bottom of the screen • The human and monkeys both made errors in guessing for a while but later on the scores reported some game-changing information.
- 9. • The experimentermanipulates where the light will appear on the screen and set it to appear on top 80% of the times. • Humans and monkeys both quickly learn that the light appears on the top and 2 unique things happen when they learn this. 1. The monkey learns to optimize and press only the top light thereby giving it an accuracy of nearly 80%. 2. The human invariably tries to figure out a pattern in the light and guesses every time. The human truly believes that there is a pattern and the results yield an accuracy of only 68%. • The interpretation for this lies in an evolutionary theory for ‘Lateralization’. • The left Hemisphere: Wants to assign meaning to the information and make a narrative • The right Hemisphere: Wants to maximize and optimize • The newer adaptions partially compromised a ‘logical’ faculty and emphasised on a more ‘meaning assigning’ faculty. Language comprehension is a beneficial result of this adaptation. • The humans learnt to interpret their experience in a novel way that animals could not.
- 10. The human vs.the monkey • Evolutionary advantage • Optimization • Side effects of higher cognitive functioning • attaching meaning: structure, function • Man infers principles of logic based on experiences and inherited adaptive mechanisms. • Children are scientists who test things out. • Soon when their brain starts to resemble that of an adult by 16-18 years of age, the pre-frontal cortex strengthens the most. • Sound decision making, meta-cognition, morals, etc. are the result of this brain region
- 11. Cognition vs. Purelogic Does the brain really understand logic? Class room Experiment: Based on the work of Peter C. Wason (1966) If the card has a vowel on one side, it must have an even number on the other side. Which card(s) should be turned over to know that the rule has been followed. A H 6 7
- 12. Class room Experiment:Cont... If you are having a beer, you must be more than 18 years of age Which card(s) should be turned over to know that the rule has been followed. Beer Water 25 12
- 13. Analysed abstract logic Results: A-646% A 33% A-6-7 7% A-7 4% Case 1 Case 2 A Even Odd H Even Odd Does not matter 6 Vowel Consonant Does not matter 7 Vowel Consonant
- 14. Analysed context dependentlogic: Results: Beer and 12 72% 2 key conclusions: People seek out confirming evidence, not disconfirming it Data with meaning and real-life sense is easier to process logically than abstract data Case 1 Case 2 Beer <18 >18 Water <18 >18 Does not matter 25 Beer Water Does not matter 12 Beer Water
- 15. Abstract W/ contextLogic convention A = Beer = P G = Water = Not P 6 = 25 Years = Q 7 = 12 Years = Not Q
- 16. Cognitive biases vs.Informal fallacies Cognitive fallacies Informal fallacies 1. Not necessarily an error in logic 2. A tendency of erroneous thinking observed at a population level: over-estimation 3. Context dependent 1. Necessarily an error In logic 2. Single-person dependent 3. Context independent • Consistent ways in which people reason erroneously • They are ways in which people actually reason, not how they ‘should’ reason • They are not about social preferences, prejudices, racism, choosing belief systems, etc. • They are in-grained tendencies which have advantages in many situations, usually naturally selected and some socially imposed. • Pervasive, Intuitive, Effortless, Automatic,
- 17. It is wiserto listen to that guy yell ‘run for your lives, bear attack!’ than to go and confirm the threat. Image credit: www.crazyhappyhealthy.com
- 18. 1. The confirmationbias Which is the next number in this series: 2 4 6 ? Task: Guess the rule I am using to compute the next number Only one guess for the rule but you can guess as many numbers as you can. Response: Yes, fits my rule OR No, does not fit my rule Religious fanatics, business developers, marketing strategists, etc. all fall victim to this. Disconfirming evidence is left ignored.
- 19. 2. The conjunctionfallacy • There is a 32 year old feminist female. Which job is she more likely to do? 1. Work at a bank with a great pay which makes her happy. 2. Work at a bank with a great pay which makes her happy while she participates in a feminist support group in her bank. Probability of case 1 is P Probability of case 2 is P x Q Since 0 < P < 1, P x Q < P In short, case 2 has more conditions to be met than case 1, thus it is necessarily less likely.
- 20. Summary of Part1 • The brain is a messy organ which assigns meaning to raw data from the environment • Logic is inferred through experience and familiar concepts are easier to process • Cognitive biases are erroneous tendencies in thinking which contradict logic • The confirmation bias makes us choose information which fits our belief and we reinforce this by ignoring disconfirming data. Limited attention Preconceived notions Inadequate inferences • The conjunction fallacy makes us believe specific details with more conditions to be met are more likely than lesser conditions with lesser details
- 21. 3. It getsworse before it gets better Predictions are deceptive and why psychologists, doctors and economists are not wrong. Case 1: You are ill and you take the doctor’s medicine after his diagnosis. You continue to feel ill for a few days and then you feel better. Case 2: You are ill and after the doctors diagnosis, you get better instantly. Case 3: The person is ill and continues to feel ill endlessly. This case is a joke and we assume that the doctor knows his medicine well and your illness is not too serious. Did you think that the doctor did well? Probably Yes. But in both scenarios, the doctor comes off as a good doctor because the patient is now cured with a favourable diagnosis.
- 22. • It’ll getworse before it gets better = If it gets worse, It will get better. • P Q P Q P Q Cognitive error T T T Perfect scenario F F T It never got worse T F F Delayed progress F T T It never got worse
- 23. 4. The anchoringeffect • An experiment by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky • What percentage of African Countries are a part of the UN? Group 1 Group 2 Is it greater or lesser than 10% ? Answer: 25% Is it greater or lesser than 65% ? Answer: 45%
- 24. • Group 1average: 25% • Group 2 average: 45% People do not mentally calculate or estimate from scratch. They find a reference point or an ‘Anchor’ which they make quick adjustments to. Repeated experimentation with randomly chosen anchors confirm the bias. This bias is used for media, political and business manipulation quite often News flash: 20 people died due to a bomb blast News flash: 200 people died due to a bomb blast
- 25. 5. The gambler’sfallacy • You have to bet on a coin toss: Heads = 50% chance, Tails = 50% chance • The first one was Tails. What do you bet on? • The first four were Tails. What do you bet on? • The first seventeen were Tails. What do you bet on? • Real example at a casino: The first 26 were Heads, millions of dollars bet on Tails for the next round. The 27th was yet another Heads and the streak ended. • The Universe:
- 26. 6. Problem ofAverages The average can be computed for anything and everything. The average human has approximately 1 breast and 1 testicle Data type and distribution are both important. Examples: IQ, Height, Wealth Outliers: Be cautious Power Law: 1. > 30 million people: Tokyo 2. 30 > 20: 11 cities 3. 20 > 10: 15 cities 4. 10 > 5: 48 cities 5. 5 > 1: Thousands of cities
- 27.
- 28. 7. Regression tothe mean • What is common between: 1. A person with severe back pain visits the therapist for relief 2. A cricketer goes to a coach before the match for lessons 3. An investor does a rain-dance every time his stock falls hard What happens when you experience the hottest or the coldest day? Weather forecasts have a life lesson in them – Natural variations Independent vs. interdependent events The universe does have a balancing force for ‘systems’ which function within limits.
- 29. The destructive powerof the regression to the mean delusion 50 students in a class receive a score in the range of 10 to 90 out of 100 in the first preliminary exam. The class teacher shouts at the ones who get 10-15 and then praises the ones who get 85-90. The second preliminary exam sees something similar. Range is 9-91 out of 100. Through natural variation the 10-15 mark scores score 15 to 20 and then the 85-90 scores score 80-85. Thus, a new student’s group is formed at the extremes” 9-15 and 85-91. Coincidentally or through a pseudo-random occurrence the highest and the lowest were replaced. Erroneous conclusion: Shouting helps and praise hinders
- 30. Animal Cognition • CleverHans and William Von Osten He used to tap his Hoof to indicate the answer of a simple mathematical problem! + - × ÷
- 31. • Hans maintainedan accuracy of about 89% in public shows. • A psychologist investigating found out that the further Hans went from the trainer, the lower the accuracy and after a significant amount of distance, the accuracy fell to ZERO. • What would one suspect?: Telepathy? Comfort? Magic? God? • A series of controlled experiments showed that a feedback loop was present between Hans and the Trainer. • The facial ques were the key. Hans kept tapping till the trainer’s face showed satisfaction which was strongly correlated with the ‘correct’ answer.
- 32. • Rico thedog Credits: www.functionalshift.wordpress.com Rico was trained to identify 200 toys with unique names. Obvious conclusion: Strong memory for novel items Subsequent experiment: Test for logic 7 known toys + 1 unknown toy placed in 1 room. The experimenter askes Rico to get a known toy from outside each others visual proximity. Later, the experimenter calls out an unknown name only once. Rico deduces by means of elimination and fetches the new unknown toy. Rico successfully maps the unknown name to the unknown toy. Fast mapping: Single instance experience for learning a concept with novel information. 3/6 new toys were remembered over a month == the average human ability for fast mapping
- 33. • Koko theGorilla Credits: www.koko.com
- 34. • 1000 wordvocab in modified American sign language and 2000 English words • Koko exhibits some, not many, logical and meaning assigning events. • Small amount of clever Hans effect • When Koko’s baby was separated from her, she spelt BABY in sign language. • She used the words for ‘Finger’ and ‘Ring’ to indicate a bracelet. Cognition at its purest! • Weird fact: Koko likes nipples and even asks her caregivers to show them through sign language
- 35. How do youdeal with Cognitive biases? 1. Focus on the data 2. Seek out contrary data and conclusions 3. Avoid the noise 4. Test and Re-test 5. Make educated guesses 6. Avoid distractions from the ‘useless content’
- 36. Honourable mentions • Theoutcome bias: You should have not done that • The sunk cost fallacy: We’ve come so far, can’t quit now • Availability bias: Why we prefer a wrong map over none, Ks
- 37.
- 38. Important people: • DanielKahneman: Thinking fast and Slow • Amos Tversky • Rolf Dobelli: The art of thinking clearly • David Eagleman
- 39. Aditya Shukla [email protected] Founder, Researcherat The OWL Music research: Learning, memory and creativity Guitarist, Composer at Gaia’s Throne Heavy metal, Sci-Fi theme, Evolution, Aliens Connect with me on Facebook, G+, Twitter, Quora, Linkedin