Dorofeyev for EDGE 102125

NHL.com's fantasy staff continues to cover the latest trends and storylines in the League through the lens of NHL EDGE puck and player tracker stats. Today, we look at forward Pavel Dorofeyev’s elite goal-scoring for the Vegas Golden Knights.

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Pavel Dorofeyev has taken his goal-scoring to another level for the Vegas Golden Knights this season and is quietly emerging as a Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy contender.

Dorofeyev is tied with Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets and Shane Pinto of the Ottawa Senators for the NHL lead in goals (seven each) through his first seven games and is tied with Kirill Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild for the most power-play goals (four each). Dorofeyev, who will turn 25 years old on Oct. 26, led Vegas with an NHL career-high 35 goals last season and is tied for ninth in the entire NHL in the category over the past two seasons combined (42 in 89 games). Since Jan. 1, Dorofeyev is tied for second in regular-season goals (29 in 52 games) behind David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins (34 in 51).

Playing on the second line with offseason addition Mitch Marner (acquired from Toronto Maple Leafs, signed eight-year contract with Golden Knights) and center Tomas Hertl and also the first power play with Marner, Hertl and another Richard Trophy contender in center Jack Eichel (six goals this season; tied for fourth), Dorofeyev appears to have staying power among the League’s best finishers.

Here are three underlying metrics behind Dorofeyev’s continued goal-scoring prowess:

1. Shot speed

Dorofeyev ranks fourth among NHL forwards in hardest shot (93.33 mph; 99th percentile) this season and is also a standout at his position in average shot speed (64.43 mph; 92nd percentile).

Dorofeyev is averaging 3.0 shots on goal per game this season and ranks second on Vegas in total shots on goal (21) behind Eichel (34; 4.86 per game). Last season, Dorofeyev led the Golden Knights in shots on goal (254 in 82 games), ahead of Eichel (233 in 77 games; second on team). Per NHL EDGE stats, Dorofeyev has excelled in long-range shots on goal (four) early on this season, ranking in the 95th percentile among forwards.

CAR@VGK: Dorofeyev buries a backhand to double the lead

2. Goals from the right side

Dorofeyev leads the NHL in goals from the right-side regions of the ice (four) and also leads the League in snap shot goals (five). All four of Dorofeyev’s power-play goals have been scored on offensive zone plays, and all three of his even-strength goals have come off the rush. Goals off the rush are defined by NHL EDGE IQ as goals that occur within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line.

Dorofeyev scored a nifty, off-the-rush goal against the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday, which featured the Peter Forsberg-style move, faking a forehand shot and using one hand to slide the puck from the forehand to their backhand side and into the net. This was Dorofeyev’s only high-danger goal of the season so far.

NHL EDGE IQ uses "Projected Goal Rate" (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal, and inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts. The average goalie angle on an inferenced power-play shot attempt this season is just below 20 degrees (19.66) and has a direct relationship with PGR (as the goalie angle increases, so does the PGR).

Dorofeyev ranks third in the NHL in average goalie angle against (41.10 degrees) on his power-play shot attempts this season, trailing only Leon Draisaitl (51.66) and Mikael Granlund (44.48), so Dorofeyev’s quick shot release and shooting position on the ice are consistently catching opposing goalies off guard. Of note, Eichel ranks fifth in this category (38.05) which gives the Vegas power play two capable shooters on both sides of the ice.

3. Offensive zone start percentage

Dorofeyev is benefiting from not only playing on one of the best offensive teams in the NHL but also getting favorable usage from coach Bruce Cassidy. Dorofeyev ranks in the 99th percentile in offensive zone starts percentage (51.0) and also ranks highly among forwards in offensive zone time percentage (46.7; 89th percentile) and total skating distance (18.96 miles; 79th percentile).

It’s worth noting Vegas right wing Mark Stone, who has played frequently on Dorofeyev’s line this season, is week to week with an upper-body injury. Stone has had primary assists on four of Dorofeyev’s seven goals; Marner, who has had primary assists on two of Dorofeyev’s goals, can certainly help Dorofeyev maintain his early season goal-scoring pace.

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