China's One-Child Policy: History, Impact, and Demographic Changes

What Was China's One-Child Policy?

Introduced by the Chinese government in 1979, discontinued in 2015, and formally ended in 2016, the one-child policy was a method of controlling the population. It was intended to address social, economic, and environmental issues that challenged the country. The policy required that many couples in the country have just one child, but it didn't apply to everyone. There were exceptions to the policy, such as for ethnic minorities and certain rural populations.

China's One-Child Policy: A Comprehensive Overview

The one-child policy refers to a set of laws implemented in China beginning in 1979 in response to explosive population growth that government officials feared would lead to a demographic disaster. China has a long history of encouraging birth control and family planning. The government began promoting birth control in the 1950s when population growth started to outpace the food supply.

By the late 1970s, China's population neared one billion, prompting the government to curb growth. The effort began in 1979 with mixed results but became serious in 1980 when standardized nationwide.

There were exceptions, however, including ethnic minorities, for those whose firstborn was labeled as disabled, and for rural families whose firstborn was not a boy.

Initially a temporary measure, the one-child policy may have prevented up to 400 million births. China ended the one-child policy when it seemed too effective. With many retiring, China had too few young people to support older generations and sustain economic growth.

The Chinese government announced on Oct. 29, 2015 that the mandated policy was ended. China's rules gradually relaxed, allowing more couples to have a second child. All couples are permitted to have two children as of 2024.

Tactics and Challenges in Enforcing the One-Child Policy

Various enforcement methods included incentives and sanctions that differed across regions. There were financial incentives and preferential employment opportunities for those who complied. Violators faced economic penalties and other sanctions. At times, the government used harsh measures like forced abortions and sterilization.

The one-child policy was officially discontinued in 2015. The efficacy of the policy itself has been challenged, however, because population growth generally slows as societies gain in income as happened in China during this time. The death rate declined, too, as the birth rate declined in China and life expectancy increased.

Impacts and Consequences of China's One-Child Policy

The one-child policy had serious implications for China's demographic and economic future. China's fertility rate stands at 1.6 in the early 2020s and it's among the lowest in the world. The U.S. is at 1.7.

China has a considerable gender skew in the 2020s. Its population includes roughly 3% to 4% more males than females. China had a rise in the abortion of female fetuses, the number of baby girls left in orphanages, and even infanticides of baby girls with the implementation of the one-child policy and the preference for male children.

This continues to affect marriage and birth rates around the country with fewer women of childbearing age in China. The drop in birth rates meant fewer children, which occurred as death rates dropped and longevity rates rose. It's estimated that the share of adults ages 65 and older will have risen from just 12% to a projected 26% by 2050.

Older parents will be relying on their children to support them and they'll have fewer children to do so. This is compounded by the massive urbanization of China since 1980 with those living in urban areas increasing from 19% in 1980 to 60% in the 2020s. China is also facing a potential labor shortage and will have trouble supporting this aging population through its state services.

The policy led to the proliferation of undocumented, non-first-born children. Their undocumented status makes it impossible for them to legally leave China. They can't register for a passport and they have no access to public education. Their parents were fined or removed from their jobs.

The Bottom Line

China's one-child policy, in effect from 1979 to 2015, was implemented to curb rapid population growth. It was one of the more draconian modern attempts to intervene in a country's changing demographics. The policy allegedly prevented up to 400 million births but it also resulted in unintended consequences such as an aging population, gender imbalance, and a shrinking workforce. Its discontinuation in 2015 and subsequent measures to encourage higher birth rates (e.g., a two-child policy in 2015-2016, tax deductions, and family support initiatives) reflect China's complex challenges in balancing population control with sustainable economic and social development.