What Buffett’s Quiet Moves Say About the Future of Stocks

Buffett has been mostly quiet in 2025—but the few moves he has made have been telling. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B) has continued to add to its massive cash and T-bill hoard, chipped away at its Apple Inc. (AAPL) position, and quietly bought up stocks in segments with pockets of value, including health insurers, homebuilders, and steel.

Read together, it's classic Buffett: sit tight when the market looks frothy, but buy aggressively when short-term fear creates bargains.

When Valuations are Rich, It Pays to Wait

Buffett has been very vocal about his cash-heavy position since the start of the year, but his 2025 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings reveal an even more pronounced tilt to cash, as Berkshire's war chest has grown to a record $340 billion—holding more T-bills than the Federal Reserve.

Investors don't see big gains by holding cash and cash-like instruments like short-term T-bills, so why is he doing it? At today’s short-term rates, Berkshire is generating real, low-risk yields while waiting for better stock market valuations. For retail investors, the point is simple: when markets look expensive, patience and giving yourself the ability to go out and buy bargain assets are not a sin—they are a smart strategy.

A related data point: Berkshire’s pause in buying back its own stock. The share repurchases mostly halted after May 2024—the longest dry spell since Buffett was given expanded buyback authority in 2018—likely because Buffett is not seeing compelling value in the company's own stock.

If the world's most patient investor won't buy his own stock, bargains are scarce. For you, it's a reminder not to force trades just to stay active—wait for prices to come to you.

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Trimming Winners While Finding Value

Buffett pared back his holdings in AAPL once again this year, shedding about 20 million shares, even as it remains Berkshire’s single largest holding. For retail investors, the message isn't simply to dump tech stocks but to be mindful of concentrating too much or holding on to assets that might have unrealistic prices relative to their value.

Meanwhile, Berkshire took a $1.6 billion stake in UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) and revealed holdings in cyclical sectors such as homebuilding—Lennar Corp. (LEN), D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI)—and steel, like Nucor Inc. (NUE).

The UnitedHealth deal is revealing: the health insurer is grappling with changes in Washington, higher inflation in health care costs, and investigations—precisely the kind of bad news that can temporarily imply problems with an otherwise strong business.

Buffett’s bet suggests he sees a durable moat—his word for a company with long-term competitive advantages—trading at a discount. The lesson is to look for high-quality companies with robust business models that are being unfairly punished by the market.

Buffett Still Goes Big on Real Assets

Buffett’s “elephant gun” doesn’t come out very often, but 2025 saw a notable blast: Berkshire's agreement to buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.'s (OXY) OxyChem petrochemicals business for about $9.7 billion, the company's biggest deal since 2022.

The firm already owns about 28% of Occidental’s equity (including preferred shares and warrants), and the move is a reminder that when Buffett does swing for the fences, he goes after real assets that generate cash, with scale, pricing power, and repositioning catalysts.

The Occidental move is also a reminder that Buffett doesn't always telegraph his plays. The SEC allows large investors to temporarily keep certain stock purchases confidential to prevent copycats from driving up prices while they're still building a position—Berkshire used this same strategy when it unveiled a major stake in Chubb in 2024, for instance.

Buffett's 2025 has been mostly quiet, but the moves he has made have spoken loudly enough. He's signaling caution with record cash levels and minimal buybacks, indicating that valuations appear rich. But he's also selectively striking: buying quality businesses that have been temporarily beaten down by fear, and making a massive bet on real assets with the Occidental deal.

The lesson for investors is that it often pays to move slowly, avoid attention when building positions, and only make noise when the fundamentals align. Regular investors can’t request SEC confidentiality, but they can adopt a similar approach: build positions slowly, ignore the noise, and strike when the fundamentals align.

For you, the takeaway is straightforward: avoid FOMO in a high-valuation market, trim your expensive winners, and seek out businesses with strong moats that are currently on sale. The next big opportunity will come—and when it does, like Buffett, you'll want dry powder ready.