ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF AN OIL PRICE LEVEL ON THE SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN PHILIPPINES (1990-2019)

19 October 2025, Version 1
This content is an early or alternative research output and has not been peer-reviewed by Cambridge University Press at the time of posting.

Abstract

This study was conducted to determine and examine the impact of crude oil price to the Gross Domestic Product, Real Exchange rate Inflation rate in the Philippines. Secondary data coming from the World Bank database was utilized in the research. The time frame of the study is 30 years, from period 1990 to 2019. To address the primary concern of the study, researchers employed macroeconomic policy modeling tools (Impulse response function and the prediction error variance decomposition technique) in the vector autoregression (VAR) using statistical known as GRETL. The outcome of the impulse response function revealed a negligible variance among macroeconomic indicators in response to crude oil price level. On average, in a short time, there is a more negative impact, which is weakening over time.

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