Climate Change - the science

(updated November 2012)

• The greenhouse effect occurs naturally, providing a habitable climate. 
• Atmospheric concentrations of some of the gases that produce the greenhouse effect are increasing due to human activity and most of the world's climate scientists believe this is causing significant climate change. 
• Over one-third of human-induced greenhouse gases come from the burning of fossil fuel to generate electricity. Nuclear power plants do not emit these gases. 

The "greenhouse effect" is the term used to describe the retention of heat in the Earth's ³ atmosphere (troposphere). In colloquial usage it often refers to the enhanced global warming which is considered likely to occur because of the increasing concentrations of certain trace gases in the atmosphere. These gases are generally known as greenhouse gases*. Concentrations of them have increased significantly during the 20th century and into the 21st, and a large part of this increase is attributed to human sources, i.e. it is anthropogenic, hence the term ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW).

 * or more specifically as radiative gases. 

Furthermore, although most sources of anthropogenic emissions can be identified in particular countries, their effect is in no way confined to those countries - it is global.

The greenhouse effect itself occurs when short-wave solar radiation (which is not impeded by the greenhouse gases) heats the surface of the Earth, and the energy is radiated back through the Earth's atmosphere as heat, with a longer wavelength. In the wavelengths 5-30µm a lot of this thermal radiation is absorbed by water vapour and carbon dioxide, which in turn radiate it, thus heating the atmosphere. This is natural and what keeps the Earth habitable.  Without the greenhouse effect overnight temperatures would plunge and the average surface temperature would be about minus 18°C , about the same as on the moon, which lacks the shroud of our atmosphere. We owe the difference of some 33°C substantially to natural levels of water vapour (60%, or more including clouds) and carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere.

In respect to enhancing the greenhouse effect, or the likelihood of AGW, the particular issue is focused in the 8-18µm band where water vapour is a weak absorber of radiation and where the Earth's thermal radiation is greatest.*  Increased concentrations of CO2 and other radiative gases here mean that less heat is lost to space from the Earth's lower atmosphere, and temperatures at the Earth's surface are therefore likely to increase. 

* Part of this "window" (12.5-18µm band) is largely blocked by carbon dioxide absorption, even at the low levels originally existing in the atmosphere.  The remainder of the "window" coincides with the absorption proclivities of the other radiative gases: methane, (tropospheric) ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide.  It also appears that increased levels of carbon dioxide will increase the capture of heat in its absorption band to some, perhaps significant, extent. 

As well as the band consideration, methane is stronger greenhouse gas because it has more atoms in the molecule than CO2. The radiative effect is caused by infrared absorption, and molecules with more atoms absorb more infrared energy. IR absorption is by the electrons that bond between atoms in a molecule and the way those atoms vibrate. More bonds = more vibrations = more IR absorption. Diatomic molecules, like 02 and N2 which mostly make up our atmosphere, absorb very little IR. CO2, with two bonds, absorbs some IR, but it is the next most abundant gas so its effect is significant.
 

A number of indicators suggest that warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases is indeed observable since 1980, despite some masking by aerosols (see below). One problem is that while global air temperatures do appear to have risen about 0.6^oC over the last century, this has been irregular rather than steady, and does not correlate well with the steady increase in greenhouse gas - notably CO2 - concentrations. While the amount is consistent with natural climate variability, some of the warmest years on record have been in the last decade. However, the climate is a complex system and other factors influence global temperatures.

Balancing Factors

The major role of water vapour in absorbing thermal radiation is in some respects balanced by the fact that when condensed it causes an albedo effect which reflects about one third of the incoming sunlight back into space. This effect is enhanced by atmospheric sulfate aerosols and dust, which provide condensation nuclei. Nearly half the sulfates in the atmosphere originate from sulfur dioxide emissions from power stations and industry, particularly in the northern hemisphere.

Volcanoes have contributed substantially to dust and acid aerosol levels high in the atmosphere. The Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1991 in the Philippines reduced average temperatures about half a degree C. While at lower levels in the atmosphere sulfate aerosols and dust are short-lived, such material in the stratosphere remains for years, increasing the amount of sunlight which is reflected away. Hence there is, for the time being, a balancing cooling effect on the earth's surface. In the northern hemisphere the sulfate aerosols are estimated to counter nearly half the heating effect due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

However, in many countries there are now programs to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from power stations, as these emissions cause acid rain.   Hence this balancing factor will diminish and the rate of temperature increase due to greenhouse gases may consequently increase.  Removing the sulfate aerosols is likely to be equivalent to increasing CO2 levels by 100ppm, according to a senior UK climate scientist.

Global Warming and Climate Change

There is clear evidence of changes in the composition of the greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, with CO2 in particular steadily increasing to its present level of about 390 ppm.  It has increased by one third in the last 200 years, and half of that in the last 30 years. Ice core samples show that both carbon dioxide and methane levels are higher than at any time in the past 650,000 years - CO2 there being 170-300 ppm. 

Estimates of the individual contribution of particular gases to the greenhouse effect, - their Global Warming Potential (GWP), are broadly agreed (relative to carbon dioxide = 1). Such estimates depend on the physical behaviour of each kind of molecule and its lifetime in the atmosphere, as well as the gas's concentration. Both direct and indirect effects due to interaction with other gases and radicals must be taken into account and some of the latter remain uncertain:

 

* • IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001  

Although water vapour has a major influence on absorbing long-wave thermal radiation, its GWP is not calculated since its concentration in the atmosphere varies widely and mainly depends on air temperature. Also its residence time is only about nine days, compared with years for CO2 and methane. It is classed a positive feedback, not a forcing agent for the troposphere. In the stratosphere, water vapour from methane oxidation and possibly from aircraft may be a forcing agent, but the former is included in methane’s GWP.

Sources, Residence and Sinks

Relating these atmospheric concentrations to emissions, sources and sinks is a steadily evolving sphere of scientific inquiry. Certain inputs to the atmosphere can be discerned and readily quantified, - carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning (34 billion tonnes in 2011, 9.2 GtC, increasing at over 3% pa) and CFCs from refrigerants for instance.  Others, such as methane sources, are less certain, though about one fifth of the methane emissions appear to be from fossil sources (coal seams, oil and natural gas, about 100 million tonnes per year).

Electricity generation is one of the major sources of carbon dioxide emissions, providing about one third of the total and one half of the increase expected 2005-30.  Coal-fired generation* gives rise to twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas per unit of power at the point of use, but hydro, nuclear power and most renewables do not directly contribute any. If all the world's nuclear power were replaced by coal-fired power, electricity's carbon dioxide emissions (now about 10 billion tonnes per year) would rise by a quarter - about 2.5 billion tonnes per year.  Conversely, there is scope for reducing coal's carbon dioxide contribution by substituting natural gas or nuclear, and by improving the efficiency of coal-fired generation itself, a process which is well under way.

* in developed countries, with average 33% thermal efficiency. The difference is greater considering developing countries' average 25% efficiency. 

Estimates of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere all show substantial increases.  Global emissions of energy-related CO2 would be about 57% higher in 2030 than in 2005 under the International Energy Agency's (IEA) reference scenario (27% under alternative scenario and 68% under high-growth scenario).  The IEA's alternative policy scenario involves a 27% reduction in energy intensity for power generation.

Then there is the question of residence time in the atmosphere. For example methane has about an eleven year residence time before it is oxidised to carbon dioxide. Hydroxyl (OH) radicals are the main means of this oxidation. Carbon dioxide has a much longer residence time in the atmosphere, until it is either used up in photosynthesis or absorbed in rain or oceans.

Finally, in relating emissions to atmospheric concentrations, there is the question of sinks, or natural processes for breaking down or removing individual gases, particularly carbon dioxide. While the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations is remarkable, and the rate of anthropogenic emissions considerable (some 31 billion tonnes per year), even this is only about four percent of the natural flux between the atmosphere and the land and oceans. This perspective is important as a reminder that only a very small change to natural processes is required to compensate for (or exacerbate) anthropogenic emissions.

In fact, study of the atmospheric carbon cycle shows that only about half of the anthropogenic emissions show up as increased carbon dioxide levels. This puzzle is not fully explained, but it seems that some terrestrial sinks are functioning as a negative feedback, that is to say they have increased their uptake as the atmospheric concentration has increased. The oceans are a major sink. 

 

Source: IAEA Bulletin 42,2; 2000 

Defining climate change prospects, effects and mitigation

The outcome of any significant global warming will be various changes in climate rather than simply an overall increase in average or nocturnal temperatures. Climate researchers have designed models to predict the consequences both in air and ocean circulation patterns. These give a range and probability of climatic impacts on different regions of the world.  Climate is defined as the statistical average of weather over a long period, typically 30 years.

The science behind the politics of climate change took a step forward and also ratcheted up concerns with the release of the Third Assessment Report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2001. 

The Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 further reduced uncertainties and led to calls for action.  This was published in three parts.  The first detailed the physical scientific basis for climate change.  The second covered the impacts of climate change, the options for adaptation and identified where people and the environment are most vulnerable.  The third part of the report identified options for mitigation of climate change.

A synthesis of all three reports, including a Summary for Policy Makers, was published in November 2007.

The first part of the Fourth Assessment report on the science relating to climate change concluded that the evidence that human-derived greenhouse gas emissions had already had an impact on the climate had strengthened. Furthermore, there was greater confidence in predictions of the impacts of future greenhouse gas emissions.

Among the findings were:

• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
• Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%+ probability) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
• The average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and that the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise.
• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level rise
• Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003, about 3.1 mm per year.
• Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years.
• More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.
• Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent
• The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores.
• The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another significant but smaller contribution. Annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions increased from an average of 23.5 Gt CO2 per year in the 1990s, to 26.4 Gt CO2 per year in 2000-2005.
• The global atmospheric concentration of methane has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in the early 1990s, and is 1774 ppb in 2005.
• The combined radiative forcing due to increases in carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide is +2.30 W/m², and its rate of increase during the industrial era is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years.

The IPCC predicts that, based on a range of scenarios, by the end of the 21st century climate change will result in :

• A probable temperature rise between 1.8°C and 4°C, with a possible temperature rise between 1.1°C and 6.4°C.
• A sea level rise most likely to be 28-43cm
• Arctic summer sea ice disappearing in second half of century
• An increase in heatwaves being very likely
• A likely increase in tropical storm intensity.

The second part of the 2007 report dealt with impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities. It concludes that climate change will have significant impacts including increased stress on water supplies and a widening threat of species extinction.

The third part of the report in May 2007 dealt with the mitigation of climate change, outlining the prospects and options for change, particularly in the energy sector, which accounts for 60% of emissions. It was signed off by over 100 countries which agreed that major changes are required, to adopt low-carbon energy technologies. It said that a key to achieving this is putting a price on carbon emissions, particularly from power generation. The report acknowledges that nuclear power is now and will remain a 'key mitigation technology'.  IEA projections support this.

It says that the most cost-effective option for restricting the temperature rise to under 3°C will require an increase in non-carbon electricity generation from 34% (nuclear plus hydro) now to 48 - 53% by 2030, along with other measures. With a doubling of overall electricity demand by then, and a carbon emission cost of US$ 50 per tonne of CO2, nuclear's share of electricity generation is projected by IPCC to grow from 16% now to 18% of the increased demand. This would represent more than a doubling of the current nuclear output by 2030. The report projects other non-carbon sources apart from hydro contributing some 12-17% of global electricity generation by 2030.

These projected figures are estimates, and it is evident that if renewables fail to grow as much as hoped it means that other non-carbon sources will need to play a larger role. Thus nuclear power's contribution could triple or perhaps quadruple to more than 30% of the global generation mix in 2030. The report also states that costs of achieving any overall target for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations would increase if any generation options were excluded. Clearly, any country excluding or phasing out nuclear energy is raising the overall cost of meeting emission reduction targets. This runs counter to the economic objectives of sustainable development.

In December 2010 some of these figures were updated in a report from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), a research consortium.  It pointed out that atmospheric CO2 concentration had reached 390 ppm at the end of 2010, 39% above that at the start of the industrial revolution in 1750.  Emissions from fossil fuels in the last decade were increasing four times faster than in the 1990s.  In 2006 China passed the USA as the largest CO2 emitter, and India is projected to overtake Russia as the third largest.  Developing countries now account for some 55% of CO2 emissions.  In 2010 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement production were 33.4 +/- 1.8 Gt CO2, 41% of these from coal and 34% from oil. These emissions were the highest in human history and 49% higher than in 1990 (the Kyoto reference year). Coal burning was responsible for 52% of the fossil fuel emissions growth in 2010 (gas 23% and liquid 18%). CO2 emissions from deforestation and other land use change were 3.3 +/- 2.6 Gt CO2 (0.9 +/- 0.7 GtC) in 2010, leading to total emissions (including fossil fuel and land use change) of 36.7 +/- 3.3 Gt CO2. According to GCP these ended up 50% in atmosphere, 26% in biomass and 24% in oceans.

Geological context and perspective

The Earth's climate has changed over millions of years, and there have been times when CO2 levels were higher than today. Evidence for climate change is preserved in a wide range of geological settings, including marine and lake sediments, ice sheets, fossil corals, stalagmites and fossil tree rings. The following information comes from a 2010 position statement from the Geological Society of London.

The Earth’s climate has been gradually cooling for most of the last 50 million years. At the beginning of that cooling (in the early Eocene), the global average temperature was about 6-7ºC warmer than now. About 34 million years ago, at the end of the Eocene, ice caps coalesced to form a continental ice sheet on Antarctica. In the northern hemisphere, as global cooling continued, local ice caps and mountain glaciers gave way to large ice sheets around 2.6 million years ago.

Over the past 2.6 million years (the Pleistocene and Holocene), the Earth’s climate has been on average cooler than today, and often much colder. That period is known as the ‘Ice Age’, a series of glacial episodes separated by short warm ‘interglacial’ periods that lasted between 10,000-30,000 years. We are currently living through one of these interglacial periods. The present warm period (known as the Holocene) became established only 11,500 years ago, since when our climate has been relatively stable. Although we currently lack the large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Pleistocene, there are of course still large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.

Global sea level is very sensitive to changes in global temperatures. Ice sheets grow when the Earth cools and melt when it warms. Warming also heats the ocean, causing the water to expand and the sea level to rise. When ice sheets were at a maximum during the Pleistocene, world sea level fell to at least 120 metres below where it stands today. Relatively small increases in global temperature in the past have led to sea level rises of several metres. During parts of the previous interglacial period, when polar temperatures reached 3-5°C above today’s, global sea levels were higher than today’s by around 4-9 metres.

Relatively rapid global warming has occurred in the past. About 55 million years ago, at the end of the Paleocene, there was a sudden warming event in which temperatures rose by about 6º C globally and by 10-20º C at the poles. Carbon isotopic data show that this warming event (called by some the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM) was accompanied by a major release of 1500-2000 billion tonnes or more of carbon (5550-7400 billion tonnes or more of CO2) into the ocean and atmosphere. This injection of carbon may have come mainly from the breakdown of methane hydrates beneath the deep sea floor, perhaps triggered by volcanic activity superimposed on an underlying gradual global warming trend that peaked some 50 million years ago in the early Eocene. CO2 levels were already high at the time. It took the Earth’s climate around 100,000 years or more to recover, showing that a CO2 release of such magnitude may affect the Earth’s climate for that length of time.

Recent estimates suggest that at times between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene), the carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reached between 330 and 400 ppm. During those periods, global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now, and sea levels were higher than now by 10-25 metres, implying that global ice volume was much less than today. There were large fluctuations in ice cover on Greenland and western Antarctica during the Pliocene, and during the warm intervals those areas were probably largely free of ice.


 

Main References:
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007
OECD/NEA World Energy Outlook 2007. 

Global Carbon Project 2008, Carbon Budget 2007.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends