Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries

(Updated November 2012) 

• Over 45 countries are actively considering embarking upon nuclear power programs. 
• These range from sophisticated economies to developing nations. 
• The front runners after Iran are UAE, Turkey, Vietnam, Belarus, Poland and Jordan.
   

Nuclear power is under serious consideration in over 45 countries which do not currently have it (in a few, consideration is not necessarily at government level).  For countries in bold, nuclear power prospects are more fully dealt with in specific country papers:

• In Europe: Italy, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland, Turkey.
• In the Middle East and North Africa: Iran, Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & Kuwait, Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Sudan.
• In west, central and southern Africa: Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Kenya, Uganda, Namibia.
• In South America: Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela.
• In central and southern Asia: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka
• In SE Asia: Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand.
• In east Asia: North Korea

Despite the large number of these emerging countries, they are not expected to contribute very much to the expansion of nuclear capacity in the foreseeable future – the main growth will come in countries where the technology is already well established.  However, in the longer term, the trend to urbanisation in less-developed countries will greatly increase the demand for electricity, and especially that supplied by base-load plants such as nuclear. The pattern of energy demand in these countries will become more like that of Europe, North America and Japan.

Some of the above countries can be classified according to how far their nuclear programs or plans have progressed:

• Power reactors under construction: UAE,  (Iran reactor has started up and been grid-connected)
• Contracts signed, legal and regulatory infrastructure well-developed: Lithuania, Turkey, Belarus. 
• Committed plans, legal and regulatory infrastructure developing: Vietnam, Jordan, Poland, Bangladesh.
• Well-developed plans but commitment pending: Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Chile; or commitment stalled: Italy.
• Developing plans: Israel, Nigeria, Malaysia, Morocco, Kuwait. 
• Discussion as serious policy option: Namibia, Kenya, Mongolia, Philippines, Singapore, Albania, Serbia, Croatia, Estonia & Latvia, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Syria, Qatar, Sudan, Venezuela.
• Officially not a policy option at present: Australia, New Zealand, Portugal, Norway, Ireland, Kuwait.

A September 2010 report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on International Status and Prospects of Nuclear Power said that some 65 countries without nuclear power plants “are expressing interest in, considering, or actively planning for nuclear power” at present, after a “gap of nearly 15 years” in such interest worldwide. Of these 65 un-named countries, it said that 21 are in Asia/Pacific, 21 in Africa, 12 in Europe (mostly eastern Europe), and 11 in Latin America. However, of the 65 interested countries, 31 are not currently [2010] planning to build reactors, and 17 of those 31 have grids of less than 5 GW, “too small to accommodate most of the reactor designs on offer.” The report added that technology options may also be limited for countries whose grids are between 5 GW and 10 GW.

Of the countries planning reactors, at September 2010: 14 “indicate a strong intention to proceed” with introduction of nuclear power; seven are preparing but haven’t made a final decision, 10 have made a decision and are preparing infrastructure, two have ordered a new nuclear power plant and one has a plant under construction, according to the IAEA assessment (see below re IAEA 'milestone' approach). These are identifiable in our development breakdown above, though Belarus and Poland have been moved up one category as of early 2012, and Saudi Arabia in mid 2012.

However, by September 2012 the picture was less positive for the leading 14 countries, and the IAEA expected only seven newcomer countries to launch nuclear programs in the near term. It did not name these, but Lithuania, UAE, Turkey, Belarus, Vietnam, Poland, and Bangladesh appear likely candidates. Others had stepped back from commitment, needed more time to set up infrastructure, or did not have credible finance.
 

One major issue for many countries is the size of their grid system. Many nuclear power plants are larger than the fossil fuel plants they supplement or replace, and it does not make sense to have any generating unit more than about one tenth the capacity of the grid (maybe 15% if there is high reserve capacity). This is so that the plant can be taken offline for refueling or maintenance, or due to unforeseen events. The grid capacity and quality may also be considered regionally, as with Jordan for instance. In many situations, as much investment in the grid may be needed as in the power plant(s).

IAEA support for new nuclear programs 

In all countries governments need to create the environment for investment in nuclear power, including professional and independent regulatory regime, policies on nuclear waste management and decommissioning, and involvement with international non-proliferation measures and insurance arrangements for third party damage.*

* see WNA papers on Safeguards to Prevent Nuclear Weapons Proliferation, and Liability for Nuclear Damage respectively. 

In different countries, institutional arrangements vary. Usually governments are heavily involved in planning, and in developing countries also financing and operation. As emerging nuclear nations lack a strong cadre of nuclear engineers and scientists, construction is often on a turnkey basis, with the reactor vendor assuming all technical and commercial risks in delivering a functioning plant on time and at a particular price. Alternatively the vendor may be set up a consortium to build, own and operate the plant. As the industry becomes more international, new arrangements are likely, including public-private partnerships.

The IAEA has published a small book Considerations to Launch a Nuclear Power Programme (2007 ) which addresses the issues involved in a country deciding upon and implementing a nuclear power program. In particular it looks at those considerations before a decision is made, before construction starts and subsequently. It then briefly covers twelve factors for consideration.

According to the IAEA in mid 2010, 20 new countries expected to have nuclear power on line by 2030. 

The IAEA sets out a phased 'milestone' approach to establishing nuclear power capacity in new countries*, applying it to 19 issues.  In broad outline the three phase approach is (milestones underlined): 

• Pre-project phase 1 (1-3 years) leading to knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear power program, resulting in set up of a Nuclear Power Program Implementing Organisation (NEPIO).  This deals with the program, not the particular projects after phase 2.
• Project decision-making phase 2 (3-7 years) involving preparatory work after the decision is made and up to inviting bids, with the regulatory body being established.  In phase 2 the government role progressively gives way to that of the regulatory body and the owner-operator.
• Construction phase 3 (7-10 years) with regulatory body operational, up to commissioning and operation.

* Milestones in the development of national infrastructure for nuclear power (2007), and Evaluation of the national nuclear infrastructure development status (2008). These are being updated with a view to new editions about 2013.

In 2009 the IAEA began offering Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) missions to assess national developments, and six INIR missions were conducted during 2009–11 to evaluate the status of countries’ nuclear infrastructure development.  The first three were to Jordan, Indonesia and Vietnam.  Another was to Belarus in 2012.

WANO and ASN support for new nuclear programs
 

For new entrants to the nuclear industry which are moving towards fuel loading in their first reactor, the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) offers pre-startup peer reviews as part of its peer review program, particularly to address the situation of new plants in countries and organisations without previous nuclear power experience. As of early 2011 it had undertaken 12 such reviews and with the great increase in construction happening, had 62 scheduled for the next five years. WANO’s goal is to do a pre-startup review on every new nuclear power plant worldwide. The reviews seek to evaluate how each operating organization is prepared for startup and make recommendations for improvements based on the collective experience of the world industry. The transition between construction and operation at a nuclear power plant is a delicate period, and many incidents occur during the early months of plant operation - both Three Mile Island 2 and Greifswald 5 were almost new units when accidents destroyed them.

In January 2008, the French Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) indicated that it would pay attention to new nuclear power projects in countries with no experience in this area.  It said that the development of nuclear industry in a country needs at least 10 to 15 years in order to build up skills in safety and control and to define a regulatory framework.  In a June 2008 position paper the five-member commission of ASN said that building the infrastructure needed to safely operate a nuclear power plant required time and that it would be selective about providing assistance.  The commissioners said ASN would give priority to countries using French technologies, that it would apply "geophysical, economic, political, social, and technical" criteria, and require countries to be party to relevant international treaties.  ASN said it takes at least five years to set up the legal and regulatory infrastructure for a nuclear power program, two to ten years to license a new plant, and about five years to build a power plant.  That means a "minimum lead time of 15 years" before a new nuclear power plant can be started up in a country that does not already have the required infrastructure.

These comments relate to France's creation of Agency France Nuclear International (AFNI) under its Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) to provide a vehicle for international assistance.  AFNI will be focused on helping to set up structures and systems to enable the establishment of civil nuclear programs in countries wanting to develop them, and will draw on all of France's expertise in this.  It will be guided by a steering committee comprising representatives of all the ministries involved (Energy, Foreign Affairs, Industry, Research, etc) as well as representatives of other major French nuclear institutions including the CEA itself and probably ASN, though this is yet to be confirmed.

The rest of this paper documents progress in a number of countries. Where an individual paper on the particular country exists (as indicated), more detail will be found there. 

Italy

Due to the high reliance on oil and gas, as well as imports, Italy's electricity prices are 45% above EU average.

Italy today is now the only G8 country without its own nuclear power, and is the world's largest net importer of electricity (effectively, some 15% of its needs), mostly nuclear power from France . This is equivalent to output from about 6 GWe of base-load capacity.

However, Italy had been a pioneer of civil nuclear power and built several reactors which operated 1963-90. But following a referendum in November 1987, provoked by the Chernobyl accident 18 months earlier, work on the nuclear program was largely stopped. In 1988 the government resolved to halt all nuclear construction, shut the remaining reactors and decommission them from 1990. Italy then remained largely inactive in nuclear energy for 15 years.

In 2004 a new Energy Law opened up the possibility of joint venture with foreign companies in relation to nuclear power plants and importing electricity from them. This resulted from a clear change in public opinion, especially among younger people favouring nuclear power for Italy.

In 2005 Electricite de France and Italy's Enel signed a co-operation agreement which gives Enel some 200 MWe from the new Flamanville-3 EPR nuclear reactor (1700 MWe) in France, and potentially another 1000 MWe or so from the next five such units built.  As well as the 12.5% share, Italy's electric utility Enel will also be involved in design, construction and operation of the plants, which will enhance Italy's power security and improve its economics.  Enel subsequently announced it was taking a 12.5% share in the second EPR being constructed in France, at Penly.

Enel has also bought 66% of the Slovak Electric utility which operates six nuclear power reactors, and Enel's investment plan for SE approved in 2005 by the Slovak government includes EUR 1.6 billion for completion of Mochovce nuclear power plant - 942 MWe gross.  Enel then took its equity in Spain’s Endesa, which has a major stake in three nuclear reactors, to 92% in February 2009.

In May 2008 the new Italian government said that it would work towards having 25% of its electricity from nuclear power by 2030, requiring 8 to 10 large new reactors by then.  The government introduced a package of nuclear legislation, including measures to  expedite licensing of new reactors at existing nuclear power plant sites, and to facilitate licensing of new reactor sites.  Enel planned to build new reactors at one of three licensed sites: Garigliano, Latina, or Montalto di Castro.  The first two had small early-model reactors operating to 1982 and 1987.  At Montalto di Castro two larger reactors were almost complete when the country's November 1987 referendum halted construction.

In January 2011 the Constitutional Court ruled that Italy could hold a referendum on the planned re-introduction of nuclear power, as proposed by an opposition party. The question posed in the referendum, held in mid June 2011, was whether voters wanted to cancel some 70 legislative and regulatory measures which had been taken by the government over three years to make it possible to build new nuclear power plants. It would not affect plans for a waste repository.  In the referendum, the 2009 legislation setting up arrangements to generate 25% of the country's electricity from nuclear power by 2030 was decisively rejected, bringing new nuclear plans to a halt.

Several research reactors are operating, including AGN Constanza (since 1960), Uni of Pavia's LENA Triga II (250 kW, since 1965), ENEA's Tapiro (5 kW, since 1971), ENEA's Triga RC-1 (1 MW, since 1960) and a subcritical assembly.

Ansaldo Nucleare, which in conjunction with Canada's AECL, built Cernavoda 2 in Romania, is also involved with international R&D on new reactor systems.

See also Italy paper for more up to date information. 

Albania

Albania gets much of its electricity from hydro, and droughts have limited power supply to four hours per day. In 2007 the government proposed construction of a nuclear power plant for both domestic and export supply to Balkans and Italy. In 2009 Croatia supported the proposal, and the two countries agreed to work together on it. The state-owned national utility, Hrvatska Elektroprivreda (Croatian Electricity Company, or HEP) would be in charge of construction works, and most of the power would be supplied to Croatia. It was earlier intended to invite Montenegro and Bosnia to participate, but Montenegro apparently opposes the plans. 

In April 2009 Croatian officials said that an agreement was concluded with Albania for the construction of a joint nuclear facility near the Montenegrin border. The two governments formed a working group of five experts each focused on the technical implementation of the project. In January 2010 the government approved the creation of the Agjencia Kombetare Berthamore (National Atomic Agency) to supervise the development of nuclear projects and set up the legal infrastructure. A proposed site for a 1500 MWe plant is in the Shkoder region, on a lake of that name, bordering Montenegro, or at Drac on the north coast, or Durres. Italian utility Enel was looking into the feasibility of a nuclear plant. 

Serbia

The governments of Russia and Serbia in 2009 were holding 'serious negotiations' for the construction of a nuclear plant on Serbian territory as a joint project.

In August 2010, the Serbian government announced that it would take an equity stake in Bulgaria's Belene nuclear plant, possibly of 5%. In November Bulgaria invited Serbia, Croatia and Macedonia - all electricity customers - to take equity of 1% to 2% in the Belene plant.

Croatia

The country imports about one fifth of its electricity requirements and is co-owner with Slovenia of the Krsko nuclear plant close to the border. It is considering joining with Slovenia in building a new reactor at Krsko, joining with Hungary in building new nuclear capacity at Paks, or building a plant of its own at one of two identified sites: Dalj or Prevlaka by 2020. A decision is expected late in 2012. In 2010 Croatia rejected an offer to invest in Bulgaria's Belene plant.

Portugal

Portugal's electricity production is about 47 billion kWh/yr gross and in 2007 this came 27% from coal, 27% from gas and 22% from hydro.  Net imports are about 5 TWh/yr from Spain.

Its electricity grid is closely linked with Spain's, so that a large nuclear plant on the Atlantic coast could serve both countries.

In 2004 the government rejected a proposal to introduce nuclear power but this is now being reviewed.

Norway

Norway's electricity is almost entirely hydro.  In 2007, 137.7 billion kWh gross was generated, from 29.5 GWe of capacity.  Exports and imports vary greatly with the season and hydro situation in Scandinavia.  In 2004 net imports were 11.5 TWh and in 2005 net exports were 12 TWh, mostly to and from Sweden.  In 2006 imports and exports largely balanced.  Per capita use is about 23,000 kWh/yr.

Leaders of Norwegian industry want nuclear energy to supplement hydro. They believe nuclear power based on thorium, which Norway has plenty of, will prevent future energy crises.

A government-appointed committee reported in February 2008 that building thorium-fuelled power reactors was a possibility, which could be tested by using thorium fuel in the country's Halden research reactor.
The committee also said that the country should strengthen its international collaboration in nuclear energy and develop its human resources in nuclear science and engineering so as to keep the thorium option open as complementary to the uranium option.  "The potential contribution of nuclear energy to a sustainable energy future should be recognised."

The Norwegian Radiation Protection Agency has licensed an underground repository inside a mountain for radioactive waste from the country's oil and gas industry.  It will hold 6000 tonnes of NORM waste, and 400 tonnes has already been placed there. 

Norway has 12 tonnes of used fuel from its Halden research reactor, and early in 2010 a commissioned report recommended that this be sent to Mayak in Russia for reprocessing. In this case the uranium would be used in RBMK reactor fuel and the plutonium recycled in Russia as MOX.

Poland

Poland has the largest reserves of coal in the EU (14 billion tonnes); and most of its electricity comes from coal, as well as most of its heat usage. At least half of the country's gas supply comes from Russia, with the price pegged to oil, but this dependence is set to change with the advent of shale gas domestically.  Poland's own electricity consumption is forecast to grow by 54% to 2030, but under the EU's strict climate policy targets the country will need to diversify away from coal.

The Polish cabinet decided early in 2005 that for energy diversification and to reduce CO2 and sulfur emissions the country should move immediately to introduce nuclear power, so that an initial plant might be operating soon after 2020. A 2009 resolution by the council of ministers then called for the construction of at least two plants in Poland, or at least 4.6 GWe out of a predicted 52 GWe total capacity - to provide 15% of power, with coal's share falling to 60% by 2030. This plan remains in place. 

The five-stage government plan in 2009 envisaged legislation for a regulatory framework in 2010 (passed in May 2011), investor, site, technology and construction arrangements over 2011-13, technical plans and site works 2014-15, construction of the first unit 2016-20 and successive units constructed by 2030.  The entity PGE EJ1 is set up to build the first plant and it will have up to 49% private equity. It will be future operator and licensee.

The government approved legislation amending the country's Nuclear Energy Law to “provide for the establishment of a transparent and stable regulatory framework covering the entire investment process” by the National Atomic Energy Agency (PAA), which will oversee construction of the plants. This was passed decisively by parliament in May 2011, by 407 votes to 2. It covers plant operation and the management of radioactive waste and used fuel.  

Poland had four 440 MWe Russian VVER-440 units under construction in the 1980s at Zarnowiec, but these were cancelled in 1990 and the components were sold, but the site remained a leading contender for at least 1500 MWe of capacity.

A public opinion poll in December 2006 carried out for the National Atomic Energy Agency showed that 60% supported construction of nuclear power plants to reduce the country's dependence on natural gas and to reduce CO2 emissions. In contrast to NIMBY attitudes elsewhere, 48% said they would favour such a plant being built in their neighbourhood because of its immediate local benefits including lower power cost. A September 2009 poll showed that 70% of Poles would support having a nuclear power plant within 100 km of their homes.

Akkuyu

TETAS called for tenders in March 2008, inviting bids for the first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, near the port of Mersin. TAEK issued specifications, allowing for different technologies, while TAEK concentrated on site-specific aspects of the 4800 MWe project. In the event, only one bid was received from 14 interested parties, this being from Atomstroyexport in conjunction with others, for an AES-2006 power plant with four 1200 MWe reactors. After some deliberation, TAEK found that it met technical criteria. 

In August 2009 two agreements between TAEK and Rosatom were signed with much fanfare. These seemed to progress the possibility of a Russian nuclear project at Akkuyu, but a legal matter halted progress.  In May 2010 Russian and Turkish heads of state signed an intergovernmental agreement for Rosatom to build, own and operate the Akkuyu plant of four 1200 MWe AES-2006 units as a US$ 20 billion project.  Rosatom, through Atomstroyexport and Inter RAO UES, will finance the project and start off with 100% equity in the Turkish project company set up to build, own and operate the plant. Longer-term they intend to retain at least 51% of the company. The Turkish firm Park Teknik and state generation company Elektrik Uretim AS (EUAS) are expected to take up significant shares. Meanwhile, EUAS will provide the site. Both Turkish and Russian parliaments then ratified the May agreement for 4800 MWe at Akkuyu.

TETAS will buy a fixed proportion of the power at a fixed price of US$ 12.35 cents/kWh for 15 years, or to 2030. The proportion will be 70% of the output of the first two units and 30% of that from units 3 & 4 over 15 years from commercial operation of each. The remainder of the power will be sold by the project company on the open market. After 15 years, when the plant is expected to be paid off, the project company will pay 20% of the profits to the Turkish government.
Late in 2010 Rosatom announced that construction by Atomstroyexport was expected to start in 2013 and the first unit was planned to be operational in 2018, the others 2019-21.

The agreement also provides for setting up a fuel fabrication plant in Turkey.

 Sinop 

Since February 2008 preparatory work has been under way at Sinop on the Black Sea to build a second nuclear plant there, along with a EUR 1.7 billion nuclear technology centre.  A 5600 MWe nuclear plant there is expected to cost about $20 billion.

In March 2010 an agreement was signed between Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) and EUAS for Kepco to prepare a bid to build the plant at Sinop, with four APR-1400 reactors starting operation from 2019. The bid, in conjunction with local construction group Enka Insaat ve Sanayi, was due in August. Kepco was to take 40% equity in the plant, and would help with financing. However, Kepco then withdrew.

Japan then indicated its interest in negotiating to build the 5600 MWe plant, and in December 2010 signed an agreement to prepare a bid for it, with a more definitive agreement expected in March 2011.However, this stalled due to the Fukushima accident and Tepco pulled out.  In March 2012 Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that progress continued towards a nuclear cooperation agreement with Japan.

There are proposals to build further nuclear capacity at another site, as part of 100 GWe required by 2030. Reports suggest that TAEK has identified Igneada on the Black Sea, close to Bulgaria, as a third nuclear power plant site.

Turkey has modest uranium resources, including 7400 tU listed in the 2007 Red Book which are amenable to mining by in situ leaching. In March 2010 Anatolia Energy Ltd (then AWH Corp) agreed with Canadian company Aldridge Uranium Inc to acquire a 75% interest in the main deposits and seek to prove up resources of 7700 tU.

In May 2008 a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the USA entered into force, and in June 2010 a nuclear cooperation agreement with South Korea was signed.

See also Turkey paper for more up to date information. 

Iran

Iran generates about three quarters of its electricity from gas and one quarter from oil, with some hydro input.

In the mid 1970s construction of two 1,200 MW(e) PWR units was started at Bushehr by Siemens KWU. In 1979 this was suspended. In 1994, Russia's Minatom and the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) agreed to complete unit 1 of Bushehr nuclear power plant with a VVER-1000 unit, using much of the infrastructure already in place. This long-awaited 915 MWe plant, being constructed by Atomstroyexport, started up in May 2011, was grid-connected early in September, and is expected to begin commercial operation in 2012.  A second reactor was planned at the site.

See also Iran paper for fuller background and more up to date information. 

Gulf states, UAE

In December 2006 the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Oman - announced that the Council was commissioning a study on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. France agreed to work with them on this, and Iran pledged assistance with nuclear technology.

Together they produce 416 billion kWh per year (2009), all from fossil fuels and with 5-7% annual demand growth. They have total installed capacity of about 90 GWe, with a common grid apart from Saudi Arabia. There is also a large demand for desalination, currently fuelled by oil and gas.  

In February 2007 the six states agreed with the IAEA to cooperate on a feasibility study for a regional nuclear power and desalination program. Saudi Arabia was leading the investigation and thought that a program might emerge about 2009.

The six nations are all signatories of the NPT and the UAE ratified a safeguards agreement with IAEA in 2003.  In mid 2008 it appointed an ambassador to IAEA.

UAE:  The UAE produces most of its electricity from gas, for which it relies on some imports. Electricity demand is growing by 9% per year and is expected to require 40 GWe of capacity by 2020. It relies entirely on electricity to provide its potable water, by desalination.

In April 2008 the UAE independently published a comprehensive policy on nuclear energy.  This projected escalating electricity demand from 15.5 GWe in 2008 to over 40 GWe in 2020, with natural gas supplies sufficient for only half of this.  Imported coal was dismissed as an option due to environmental and energy security implications.  Nuclear power "emerged as a proven, environmentally promising and commercially competitive option which could make a significant base-load contribution to the UAE's economy and future energy security."  Hence 20 GWe nuclear is envisaged from about 14 plants, with nearly one quarter of this operating by 2020.  Two sites envisaged were between Abu Dhabi and Qatar, and possibly at Al Fujayrah on the Indian Ocean coast. 

Accordingly, and as recommended by the IAEA, the UAE established a Nuclear Energy Program Implementation Organization which has set up the Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) as a public entity, initially funded with $100 million, to evaluate and implement nuclear power plans within UAE. 

In October 2009 the Federal Law Regarding the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy was signed into effect, providing for development of a system for licensing and control of nuclear material, as well as establishing the independent Federal Authority of Nuclear Regulation to oversee the whole UAE nuclear energy sector, and appointing the regulator's board, headed by a senior US regulator. The law also makes it illegal to develop, construct or operate uranium enrichment or spent fuel processing facilities within the country's borders. 

The UAE invited expressions of interest from nine companies for construction of its first nuclear power plant. ENEC reduced this to a short list of three and sought bids by mid 2009. The three bidders on the short list comprised Areva, with Suez and Total, proposing its EPR, GE-Hitachi proposing its ABWR, and the Korean consortium proposing the APR-1400 PWR technology. The last group is led by Korea Electric Power Co. (KEPCO), and involves Samsung, Hyundai and Doosan, as well as Westinghouse, whose System 80+ design (certified in the USA) has been developed into the APR-1400. The UAE has expressed an intention to standardize on one technology. 

In December 2009 ENEC announced that it selected the bid from the KEPCO-led consortium for four APR-1400 reactors. The value of the contract for the construction, commissioning and fuel loads for four units is about US$20 billion, with a high percentage of the contract being offered under a fixed-price arrangement. The consortium also expects to earn another $20 billion by jointly operating the reactors for 60 years.

By 2020 UAE hopes to have four 1400 MWe nuclear plants running and producing electricity at a quarter the cost of that from gas.  ENEC has appointed the global full-service program management, engineering, construction and operations firm C2HM Hill to manage the UAE's plans for bringing nuclear power to the country.

The site selected is at Barakah, on the coast 53 km west of Ruwais, a little closer to Qatar than to Abu Dhabi city. ENEC received the construction licence for units 1 & 2 in July 2012, and started construction of unit 1 that month, and unit 2 start is expected a year later. Commercial operation is envisaged in 2017 and 2018 respectively, followed by 2019 and 2020 for units 3 & 4.

See also http://www.usuae123.com/ 

Though part of UAE, Dubai is considering its own nuclear power possibilities, separate from Abu Dhabi's Barakah plant. In 2009 it set up a Supreme Council of Energy as an independent legal entity, whose task is to oversee all matters relating to Dubai's energy sector. This includes possible use of nuclear energy for electricity and desalination plants.  

The USA and South Korea signed bilateral nuclear energy cooperation agreements with the UAE in January and June 2009 respectively. The UK and Japan have signed Memoranda of Understanding on nuclear energy cooperation with UAE. France has a nuclear cooperation agreement with UAE and has discussed nuclear energy development with Saudi Arabia, offering Atomic Energy Commission (CAE) assistance.  The USA has signed memoranda of understanding re nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

See also: UAE paper for more up to date information. 

Saudi Arabia 

Saudi Arabia is the main electricity producer and consumer in the Gulf States, with 217 TWh production in 2009, fairly evenly split between oil and gas.  Capacity is over 30 GWe.  Demand is growing 8% per year and peak demand is expected to be 60 GWe by 2020. Saudi Arabia is unique in the region in having 60 Hz grid frequency, which severely limits the potential for grid interconnections.

In August 2009 it announced that it was considering a nuclear power program, and in April 2010 a royal decree said: "The development of atomic energy is essential to meet the Kingdom's growing requirements for energy to generate electricity, produce desalinated water and reduce reliance on depleting hydrocarbon resources." The King Abdullah City for Nuclear and Renewable Energy (KA-CARE) is being set up in Riyadh to advance this agenda and to be the competent agency for treaties on nuclear energy signed by the kingdom.  It is also responsible for supervising works related to nuclear energy and radioactive waste projects.  In June 2010 it appointed the Finland- and Swiss-based Poyry consultancy firm to help define "high-level strategy in the area of nuclear and renewable energy applications" with desalination. In November 2011 it appointed WorleyParsons to conduct site surveys and regional analysis to identify potential sites, to select candidate sites then compare and rank them, and to develop technical specifications for a planned tender for the next stage of the Saudi nuclear power project.

Shaw Group in partnership with Toshiba/ Westinghouse and Exelon is bidding for EPC contracts, expecting Saudi Arabia to build up to 32 nuclear units. However, a nuclear cooperation agreement with France in early 2011 is likely to energetically advance French interests in any such plans.  A mid 2011 nuclear cooperation agreement with Argentina is evidently related to smaller plants for desalination.  . A November 2011 agreement with South Korea calls for cooperation in nuclear R&D, including building nuclear power plants and research reactors, as well as training, safety and waste management. A January 2012 agreement with China relates to nuclear plant development and maintenance, research reactors, and the provision of fabricated nuclear fuel.  KA-CARE said it was negotiating with Russia, Czech Republic, UK and the USA regarding "further cooperation". 

In June 2011 the coordinator of scientific collaboration at KA-CARE said that it plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors over the next 20 years at a cost of more than 300 billion riyals ($80 billion). The first two are planned to be on line in ten years and then two more per year to 2030. These would generate about 20% of Saudi Arabia's electricity.  Smaller reactors such as Argentina’s CAREM are envisaged for desalination.

In May 2012 KA-CARE projected 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2032 to provide one sixth of the power then, with 16 GWe solar PV, 25 GWe solar CSP (to provide for heat storage), and 4 GWe from geothermal and waste. About half the power in 2032 would still be from oil and gas.
 See also: Saudi Arabia paper for more up to date information. 

Qatar has undertaken its own investigation in to the viability of nuclear power and late in 2008 announced that there was not yet a strong case for proceeding, especially in the absence of modern 300 to 600 MWe reactors being available.  However, in 2010 it raised the possibility of a regional project for nuclear generation.  Qatar expects to need 7900 MWe of capacity by 2010, along with desalination capacity of 1.3 million cubic metres per day in addition.  In 2009 it produced 24.8 TWh, all from gas.  In 2010 Qatar signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia's Rosatom.

Oman also investigated nuclear power, joined GNEP, and in June 2009 signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with Russia.  However, late in 2008 it said that since most of its demand was peak load, nuclear did not seem appropriate, though investment in a nuclear plant in a neighbouring GCC country was possible.  In 2009 it produced 17.8 TWh, mostly from gas.

Kuwait is considering its own nuclear program for power and water, and in March 2009 moved to set up a national nuclear energy commission, in cooperation with the IAEA.  In April 2010 it signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with France relating to a range of civil nuclear energy applications, including electricity generation, water desalination, research, agronomy, biology, earth sciences and medicine. In December 2010 the Kuwait Investment Authority agreed to take EUR 600 million equity (4.8%) in Areva.  Kuwait also has nuclear cooperation agreements with USA, Russia and Japan. 

In September 2010 it announced an intention to build four 1000 MWe nuclear power reactors by 2022, but in mid 2011 said it would not proceed with this. Cabinet also assigned the role of the Kuwait National Nuclear Energy Committee (KNNEC) to the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR).  Most of Kuwait's 53.2 TWh production in 2009 was from oil. In 2010 it had 11 GWe of capacity but this is expected to grow to 25 GWe by 2030.  In 2011 it expended 350,000 bbl of oil (2.1 GJ) per day on electricity generation and desalination, this is expected to rise to 500,000 bbl (3 GJ) by 2030.

Bahrain produced 12.1 TWh in 2009.
 

Jordan

Jordan imports over 95% of its energy needs, at a cost of about one fifth of its GDP. It generated 14.3 Billion kWh, mostly from natural gas, and imported 0.4 billion kWh of electricity in 2009 for its six million people. In 2012 its electricity was 25% from natural gas imported (unreliably) from Egypt, 32% from heavy fuel oil, 32% from diesel, and 11% was imported.  It has 2400 MWe of generating capacity and expects to need 3600 MWe by 2015, 5000 MWe by 2020 and 8000 MWe by 2030 when it expects doubled electricity consumption. Per capita electricity consumption is about 2000 kWh/yr. Jordan has regional grid connection of 500 MWe with Egypt and 300 MWe with Syria, and it is increasing links with Israel and Palestine. This will both increase energy security and provide justification for larger nuclear units.

Also it has a "water deficit" of about 600 million cubic metres per year (1500 demand, 900 supply). Its 2007 national energy strategy envisages 29% of primary energy from natural gas, 14% from oil shale, 10% from renewables and 6% from nuclear by 2020. Jordan has regional grid connection of 500 MWe with Egypt, 300 MWe with Syria, and it is increasing links with Saudi Arabia, Israel and Palestine. This will both increase energy security and provide justification for larger nuclear units

Jordan's Committee for Nuclear Strategy, set up in 2007, set out a program for nuclear power to provide 30% of electricity by 2030, and to provide for exports. The nuclear law was modified in 2007 to establish the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC) and the Jordan Nuclear Regulatory Commission (JNRC), including radiation protection and environmental roles. 

Site options with seawater cooling are limited to 30 kilometres of Red Sea coast near Aqaba.  After commencing a siting study for the new plant some 25 km south of Al Aqabah and 12 km east of the Gulf of Aqaba coastline, in 2010 the proposed location for the first reactor became the Majdal area in northern Al Mafraq province, about 40 km north of Amman, due to better seismic characteristics. The plant needs to have PGA seismic level of 400 gal for safe shutdown.  Cooling water will come from the municipal Khirbet Al Samra Wastewater Treatment Plant, with the cooling system modeled on that at Palo Verde in Arizona, USA.

In November 2009 JAEC signed an $11.3 million agreement with WorleyParsons for the pre-construction phase of a 1000 MWe nuclear power plant. The firm is carrying out technology selection - preparing the tender and evaluating bidders, as well as assisting in fuel cycle engineering and waste management plans for the plant. It will also assist in establishing a utility company, expected to be a public-private entity with up to 75% equity from an experienced strategic partner, to own and operate the plant. 

In 2009 the JAEC evaluated seven offers from at least four reactor vendors.  In May 2010 three vendors and designs were short listed, the Atmea1 from Areva-MHI, the AECL EC6, and the AES-92 from Atomstroyexport. In April 2012 the field was narrowed to two: Atmea1 and AES-92. JAEC and WorleyParsons will take forward discussions first on the actual reactor designs and secondly "on the financing and organization support that the vendor will be providing for future operation of the plant." 

In February 2011 the Energy Minister announced that JAEC had short-listed GDF Suez, Rosatom, Datang International Power Generation Co. and Kansai Electric Power Co. as possible strategic partners to  invest in and operate the new plant, with the government retaining 26-51% of the equity.  Jordan is looking at limited recourse financing with a debt-equity ratio of at least 70-30, and wants to set up a long-term (eg 45-year) power purchase contract, with the government guaranteeing part of the debt.  The overnight cost is expected to be $4900/kW, hence likely $9.8 billion apart from financing. 

JAEC expects to start building a 750-1200 MWe nuclear power unit in 2013 for operation by 2020 and a second one for operation by 2025. 

Longer-term, four nuclear reactors are envisaged, and separately to the present tender process Rosatom has offered these on a build, own and operate (BOO) basis similar to its project in Turkey. Rosatom would establish a project company and eventually offer 49% of it to local investors.  Further nuclear projects will involve desalination.

In December 2009 the JAEC selected a consortium headed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) with Daewoo to build a 5 MW research and test reactor (JRTR) at the Jordan University for Science & Technology by 2015 - the country's first.  The reactor, similar to South Korea's HANARO heavy water reactor, will use 19% enriched fuel and will have the potential to upgrade to 10 MW.   It will be financed partly by a $70 million soft loan from South Korea, with 0.2% interest rate and repayment over 30 years. The JRTR will serve as an integral part of the nuclear technology infrastructure and will become the focal point for a Nuclear Science and Technology Centre (NSTC) with a key role in educating and training future generations of nuclear engineers and scientists. It will supply radioisotopes for medicine, industry and agriculture. 

Uranium 

The country claims low-cost uranium resources of 140,000 tU plus another 59,000 tU in phosphate deposits.  A feasibility study on recovering uranium as a by-product of phosphate production is under way. 

In October 2008 a joint venture between JAEC and Areva was established to define uranium resources in central Jordan, and in February 2010 this became the JV company Nabatean Energy. Also the Jordan French Uranium Mining Company (JFUMC) was set up as a joint venture between Areva and Jordan Energy Resources Inc. and trades as Jordan Areva Resources.  In June 2012 JFUMC said it had identified over 20,000 tU as reserves in a 72 sq km area. It will carry out a feasibility study on mining, and development of an open pit mine is expected to begin in 2013, for operation from 2015. Areva said its goal was "to create a full partnership with Jordan on training and obtaining nuclear technology". 

A further 22,000 tU is reported at Hasa and Qatrana, 80 km south of Amman, following 2010-11 work by Jordan Energy Resources Inc (JERI), a commercial arm of JAEC. This is in the Qatrana phosphorites, where uranium at 0.015-0.017% would be a co-product with phosphates and vanadium. About 52 Mt of phosphate is reported, but neither this nor the uranium is as JORC-compliant resources. JERI is calling for bids from major mining companies to develop seven separate blocks comprising the deposit late in 2012. Some uranium mineralisation is also reported at Rweished near the Iraq border in the far northeast. 

China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) has been searching for uranium at Hamra-Hausha in the north, and Wadi Baheyya in the south.

Jordan has signed nuclear cooperation agreements with France, Canada, UK and Russia, in respect to both power and desalination, and is seeking help from the IAEA.  It has signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with China, covering uranium mining in Jordan and nuclear power, and others with South Korea, Japan, Spain, Italy, Romania, Turkey and Argentina related to infrastructure including nuclear power and desalination. A full nuclear cooperation agreement with USA is pending, though the USA wants Jordan to emulate UAE and rule out uranium enrichment.  Jordan joined the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in 2007.

See also: Jordan paper for more up to date information. 

Egypt

Egypt produced 115 billion kWh gross in 2006 from 18 GWe of plant, giving per capita consumption of 1350 kWh/yr.  In 2006 72% of electricity came from gas, 16% from oil and 11% from hydro.  Demand growth is about 7% pa. Gas resources are expected to be severely depleted in 20 years.  In 2011-12 generating capacity was 25.1 GWe and the projected capacity in 2021-22 is 43.7 GWe.

Egypt set up its Atomic Energy Commission in 1955, and what became the Atomic Energy Authority the following year, responsible for licensing and regulation. In 1964 a 150 MWe nuclear plant with 20,000 m3/day desalination capacity was proposed, then in 1974 a 600 MWe plant was proposed for Sidi Kreir near Alexandria. The government's Nuclear Power Plants Authority (NPPA) was then established in 1976, and in 1978 plans were drawn up for ten reactors by 1999 with 7200 MWe capacity, at Sidi Kreir, Al Arish, Cairo and in Upper Egypt. Talks then with French, German and Austrian interests as well as Westinghouse came to nothing.

In 1983 the El Dabaa site on the Mediterranean coast 250 km west of Alexandria and Zafraana on the Gulf of Suez were selected for nuclear plants. Germany's KWU, Framatome and Westinghouse tendered to provide reactors for El Dabaa. Australia and Niger agreed to supply uranium. This plan was aborted following the Chernobyl accident. Over 1999-2001 the NPPA carried out a feasibility study for a cogeneration plant for electricity and desalination, updating it in 2003.  New nuclear cooperation agreements were signed with Russia in 2004 and 2008, reviving Egypt's plans for a nuclear power and desalination plant there, supported by Rosatom. In 2006 a nuclear cooperation agreement was reached with China.

On the basis of the feasibility study for a cogeneration plant for electricity and potable water at El-Dabaa, in October 2006 the Minister for Energy announced that a 1000 MWe reactor would be built there by 2015. The US$ 1.5 to 2 billion project would be open to foreign participation.

In December 2008, following an international tender, the Energy & Electricity Ministry awarded a $180 million contract to Bechtel to choose the reactor technology, choose the site for the plant, train operating personnel, and provide technical services over some ten years.  However, in May 2009 the government transferred this contract to WorleyParsons, who signed it in June with the Nuclear Power Plant Authority for $160 million over 8 years to support the establishment of a 1200 MWe nuclear plant. The contract includes site surveys and regional analysis to identify potential sites, selecting candidate sites then comparing and ranking them, and developing technical specifications for a planned tender. The ministry said that Egypt aimed to begin generating nuclear electricity in 2017 at one of five possible sites.  

Early in 2010 the proposal had expanded to four plants by 2025, the first being on line in 2019.  Bids were to be sought late in 2010, but this slipped to 2011 and plans were then put on hold until the political situation stabilised. In March 2010 a legislative framework to regulate nuclear installations and activities in order to ensure the protection of facilities, individuals and property was signed into law. The first unit is expected to cost about US$ 4 billion.

As well as addressing power supplies, the NPPA expects to have four nuclear desalination plants operating by 2025.

Egypt has a 1961-vintage 2 MW Russian research reactor at Inshas, serviced by Russia, and a 22 MW Argentinian research reactor (ETRR-2) partly supported by Russia and which started up in 1997.

Egypt signed the NPT in 1968, but until 1981 refused to ratify it unless Israel did. This caused plans in the 1970s to come to nothing.

Israel 

Israel produces 60 billion kWh gross per year, about 59% from coal and 33% from imported gas in 2011. It has about 15.5 GWe capacity with little reserve. Population is 7.8 million, with average per head consumption 6400 kWh/yr. Net exports (to unspecified countries) were 4.2 billion kWh in 2011.

In the 1980s the state-owned Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) set aside a site in the southern Negev at Shivta for a nuclear power plant, and discussions were held with France regarding equipment. The question was raised again in 2007 by the National Infrastuctures Ministry and Atomic Energy Commission. A twin reactor nuclear plant of 1200-1500 MWe under IAEA safeguards was envisaged for the site by 2020.  Early in 2010 Israel said that it would prefer to develop its nuclear plant in collaboration with Jordan, but the overture was not reciprocated. In mid 2011 the prime minister was quoted as saying that plans would not proceed.

Israel has a 5 MWt research reactor at Nahal Soreq near Tel Aviv under IAEA safeguards, operating since 1960 with US fuel, and another 70 MWt French-built heavy water reactor at Dimona in the Negev, which is understood to have been used for military plutonium production.  The Soreq reactor is due to be shut down about 2017 and replaced by a particle accelerator.

Israel is one of three significant countries which have never been part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), so any supply of nuclear equipment or fuel from outside the country would be severely constrained. Unlike India and Pakistan, Israel has had no civil nuclear power program.

Syria

Syria produced 37 billion kWh gross in 2006, 51% of this from oil, 38% from gas, 11% from hydro.  Electricity demand is growing rapidly.

Syria had plans in the 1980s to build a VVER-440 reactor but abandoned these after the Chernobyl accident and due to the collapse of Soviet Union. With escalating oil and gas prices, nuclear power is now being considered again, and Russia has offered to help.  The Syrian Atomic Energy Commission in 2011 published a proposal for a nuclear power plant by 2020.

However, over 2001-07 Syria built at a remote location what appeared to be a gas-cooled reactor similar to the plutonium production unit at Yongbyong in North Korea.  This was destroyed by an Israeli air strike in 2007 and the remains then demolished.  Israel claimed that the facility was a 25 MWt gas-cooled reactor with military purpose.  The project was clandestine and apparently in breach of Syria's obligations under the NPT.

Tunisia

Tunisia produced 14 billion kWh gross in 2006, almost all of this from gas. Capacity is 3.8 GWe in 2012, and projects 24.5 to 33.3 GWe in 2031.

The government is reported to be evaluating the possible construction of a 600-1000 MWe nuclear plant costing US$ 1.14 billion at either a northern or a southern site. Desalination is a major need.

The National Atomic Energy Commission (CENA) was established in 1990, focused on nuclear technology for various functions but not power. The country’s nuclear law has been overhauled in collaboration with IAEA since 2008. The regulatory body is the National Agency for Nuclear Safety (ANSN) which is complemented by the National Centre for Radiation Protection (CNRD), set up in 1981. A National Centre for Nuclear Science & Technology was set up in 1993 to undertake research.