Background: The consumption of some food groups is associated with the risk of diabetes. However, there is no evidence from meta-analysis which evaluates the consumption of ultra-processed products in the risk of diabetes. This study aimed to review the literature assessing longitudinally the association between consumption of ultra-processed food and the risk of type 2 diabetes and to quantify this risk through a meta-analysis.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis with records from PubMed, Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences (LILACS), Scielo, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science. We included longitudinal studies assessing ultra-processed foods and the risk of type 2 diabetes. The review process was conducted independently by two reviewers. The Newcastle Ottawa scale assessed the quality of the studies. A meta-analysis was conducted to assess the effect of moderate and high consumption of ultra-processed food on the risk of diabetes.

Results: In total 2272 records were screened, of which 18 studies, including almost 1.1 million individuals, were included in this review and 72% showed a positive association between ultra-processed foods and the risk of diabetes. According to the studies included in the meta-analysis, compared with non-consumption, moderate intake of ultra-processed food increased the risk of diabetes by 12% [relative risk (RR): 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-1.17, I2 = 24%], whereas high intake increased risk by 31% (RR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.21-1.42, I2 = 60%).

Conclusions: The consumption of ultra-processed foods increased the risk for type 2 diabetes as dose-response effect, with moderate to high credibility of evidence.