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Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
(2025-05-22)
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-026
Working Paper
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
Birinci, Serdar; Park, Youngmin; See, Kurt
(2025-05-21)
When estimating earnings losses upon job separations, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of involuntary separations using Canadian job separation records. We refine existing strategies and find that only a quarter of mass-layoff separations are indeed layoffs. We provide guidance on how to effectively filter out spurious separations when using databases with sparse information on separations. Isolating involuntary mass-layoff separations with our ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-022
Working Paper
The Phillips Curve's and Relative Phillips Curve's Slopes: Why So Different?
Dupor, Bill
(2025-05-18)
I estimate the effect of labor market tightness on wage inflation from 2004-2019 using aggregate data and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. The Phillips curve slope, i.e., the effect of a unit increase in the vacancy-unemployment ratio on inflation, is about 3.4 percentage points. Then, I estimate the model using the corresponding panel-level data with a time-fixed-effect regression: The resulting regional (i.e., relative) Phillips curve slope is about 0.7. This large difference between the two slopes is robust to controlling for various measures of inflation expectations and for supply ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-010
Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
Cheremukhin, Anton A.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina
(2025-05-07)
The recent behavior of the U.S. Beveridge curve — its outward shift and changing slope — has puzzled economists and is difficult to reconcile with standard explanations based on gradual structural change or declining matching efficiency. We propose a dual-vacancy model in which firms post two distinct types of vacancies: those targeting unemployed workers and those designed to hire already employed workers through poaching. These two types of vacancies operate in segmented sub-markets with separate matching processes. Using U.S. labor market data from 1978 to 2024, we estimate the ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2022-021
Working Paper
Scalable versus Productive Technologies
Hubmer, Joachim; Chan, Mons; Ozkan, Serdar; Salgado, Sergio; Hong, Guangbin
(2025-05-06)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Chan, Ozkan, Salgado, Hong. Are larger firms more productive, more scalable, or both? We use firm-level panel data from thirteen countries and employ a broad set of methods to estimate factor elasticities---capturing returns to scale (RTS)---and total factor productivity (TFP). We find substantial RTS heterogeneity within industries, with larger firms exhibiting higher RTS driven by greater intermediate input elasticities. TFP, by contrast, rises with firm size only up to the top decile before declining. Incorporating RTS heterogeneity into a standard model ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-019
Working Paper
Mark Carlson’s The Young Fed: A Review Essay
Rose, Jonathan D.
(2025-05-02)
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-008
Working Paper
College Access and Intergenerational Mobility
Hendricks, Lutz; Koreshkova, Tatyana; Leukhina, Oksana
(2025-04-11)
This paper studies how college admissions preferences for lower-income students affect intergenerational earnings mobility. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with quality-differentiated colleges. We find that admissions preferences substantially increase lower-income enrollment in selective colleges and intergenerational earnings mobility. The associated losses of aggregate earnings are very small.
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-030
Working Paper
The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Van Patten, Diana; Wright, Mark L. J.
(2025-04-11)
This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of Bretton Woods capital controls on global economic activity. It applies a three-region DSGE model of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) that measures capital controls using observed regional consumption growth differences. We find sizable controls during Bretton Woods that prevented ROW capital from flowing to the U.S., and which reduced U.S. welfare and raised ROW welfare. By preventing capital flight in developing economies, we find that Bretton Woods controls promoted the U.S. foreign policy objective of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2020-042
Working Paper
On the Transition to Sustained Growth: The Importance of Recent Agricultural Employment
Ravikumar, B.; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
(2025-04-08)
We study a model where a single good can be produced using a diminishing-returns technology (Malthus) and a constant-returns technology (Solow). We map the former to agriculture and show that the share of agricultural employment declines at a constant rate during the economic transition and that recent observations on the share are sufficient to estimate the onset of transition. Our model implies that (i) output growth is higher and increasing after the onset of transition, (ii) during the transition, it is a first-order autoregressive process, and (iii) the rate of decline in the share of ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-026
Working Paper
Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Rogerson, Richard
(2025-04-06)
We document large differences in lifetime hours of work using data from the NLSY79 and argue that these differences are an important source of inequality in lifetime earnings. To establish this we develop and calibrate a rich heterogeneous agent model of labor supply and human capital accumulation that allows for heterogeneity in preferences for work, initial human capital and learning ability, as well as idiosyncratic shocks to human capital throughout the life-cycle. Our calibrated model implies that almost 20 percent of the variance in lifetime earnings is accounted for by differences in ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-024
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O25 2 items
O3 2 items
O57 2 items
Q53 2 items
R53 2 items
Z0 2 items
A14 1 items
B0 1 items
B1 1 items
B2 1 items
C02 1 items
C1 1 items
C10 1 items
C18 1 items
C21 1 items
C26 1 items
C34 1 items
C51 1 items
C54 1 items
C71 1 items
C8 1 items
C81 1 items
C82 1 items
D12 1 items
D22 1 items
D51 1 items
D62 1 items
D7 1 items
D78 1 items
D86 1 items
D9 1 items
D90 1 items
E02 1 items
E25 1 items
E27 1 items
E49 1 items
E69 1 items
F00 1 items
F02 1 items
F17 1 items
F32 1 items
F36 1 items
F37 1 items
F50 1 items
F51 1 items
F52 1 items
F54 1 items
F55 1 items
F65 1 items
G30 1 items
G5 1 items
H1 1 items
H4 1 items
H51 1 items
H57 1 items
H62 1 items
H77 1 items
H8 1 items
H81 1 items
H84 1 items
H87 1 items
I1 1 items
I22 1 items
I28 1 items
I31 1 items
J01 1 items
J30 1 items
J38 1 items
J44 1 items
J6 1 items
J68 1 items
J7 1 items
K10 1 items
K35 1 items
L93 1 items
M12 1 items
M50 1 items
M52 1 items
M55 1 items
N00 1 items
N10 1 items
N2 1 items
O2 1 items
O32 1 items
O38 1 items
O5 1 items
P16 1 items
P23 1 items
P24 1 items
P51 1 items
Q02 1 items
Q32 1 items
Q54 1 items
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discretion 17 items
liquidity 17 items
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unemployment 16 items
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government debt 14 items
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hours 4 items
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aggregation 3 items
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economic geography 3 items
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essential goods 3 items
event probability forecasting 3 items
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factor models 3 items
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