This project examines the evolution of terrorism in Europe over the past two decades, utilizing the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). It tackles three investigative objectives:

"How did the nature, lethality, and modus operandi of terrorist activity evolve across Europe from 2000 to 2020?"

🔎 Focus: Trends in attack frequency, lethality, tactics, weapons, and targets.

💡 Between 2000 and 2020, terrorism in Europe experienced a concentrated surge during 2014 – 2016, followed by a sharp decline. The nature of terrorism evolved from sporadic attacks into conflict-linked spikes, especially in Eastern Europe. The lethality remained moderate overall, driven by a small number of deadly tactics. The modus operandi remained largely unchanged: bombings and shootings remained the default tools, while sophisticated or novel tactics remained rare. At the macro level, terrorism in Europe was shaped more by geopolitical escalation and group reactivation than by tactical innovation.

"Which perpetrator groups changed their preferred attack types or target profiles over the two decades, and when did those shifts occur?"

🔎 Focus: Shifts in tactics and target preferences by top terrorist groups.

💡 Among the top five groups analyzed, PKK, DPR, and LPR clearly adapted both their attack methods and target choices in response to evolving conflict dynamics and strategic goals. In contrast, ETA and Chechen Rebels showed no significant change, and instead followed static patterns until operational collapse or demobilization.
These findings highlight that hybrid insurgent actors (PKK, DPR, LPR) tend to evolve tactically and target-wise over time, especially when involved in prolonged or regionally complex conflicts. In contrast, ideologically rigid or territorially constrained groups (ETA, Chechen Rebels) are less likely to adapt.

"What country-to-country 'spill-over' patterns exist?"

🔎 Focus: Detecting month-level lagged correlations in attack patterns across neighboring countries.

💡 Despite the broad testing across 41 European countries, no widespread operational spill-over patterns were found. However, in the case of Ireland and the United Kingdom, results show:

• Strong correlation of terrorist activity on a monthly level.
• Aligned activity by the same groups or ideologically similar actors.
• Historical continuity in nationalist extremist movements across borders.

This suggests that terrorism spill-over in Europe is not the norm, but can exist under specific geopolitical, historical, and ideological conditions, particularly in regions with long-standing cross-border disputes and group networks.

• Data: GTD — Global Terrorism Database (Original GTD is not included due to file size boundaries; instead, there is the processed file after the ETL implementation at the etl_outputs/)
• Icons: ICONS8
• Code: Python (pandas, numpy, matplotlib, seaborn, geopandas, folium)
• Platform: Google Colab

🙏 Thank you in advance for visiting this project 😊